PNUT: Break of the 10¢ Floor — Selling the Retest Before a Push to 9.2¢

Summary view

• Current price (spot): $0.098245
• Bias (next 24h): Bearish continuation with a weak bounce into the 0.100–0.101 zone likely, then a push toward 0.094–0.092.
• Plan: Sell a retest of broken support (around 0.1008) for continuation lower. Target $0.0924 within 24h if momentum persists; allow for a shallow intraday bounce first.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): Clear downtrend since late October. After the Oct 10 shock (intraday low ~0.0686, close ~0.1340), price ranged 0.12–0.16 for ~3 weeks, then resumed a controlled decline. Lower highs: 0.1503 (10/12), 0.1609 (10/13 spike), 0.1467 (10/20), 0.1392 (10/24), 0.1379 (10/29), 0.1325 (11/01), 0.1286 (11/02), 0.1236 (11/10). Lower lows stepped down accordingly. Structure is a clearly defined bearish channel with a fresh breakdown of the psychological $0.10 handle.
• Intermediate structure: A descending triangle formed between 11/07–11/15 with a flat base near $0.101–0.102 and compressing lower highs. Today’s break under $0.101/$0.100 confirms the pattern. Measured move (height ~0.1235–0.101 = 0.0225) projects to ~0.0785; not necessarily a 24h target, but directionally consistent.
• Intraday (hourly): Sideways-to-down through the Asian/European sessions, then a volume-backed flush from ~0.1019 to ~0.0981 in the 11:00–12:00 UTC window. Since then, price hugged ~0.0982–0.0985 with weak bounce attempts—classic “bearish break, low-energy retest” behavior. Hourly VWAP sits above spot (around ~0.101–0.1015), indicating intraday sellers in control.

2. Price action and levels

• Support now turns resistance: $0.1000–0.1015 (broken shelf). Expect responsive sellers on first retest. Above that, layered supply at $0.105–0.106 (11/14–15 tops) and $0.109–0.116 (Fib 38.2–61.8% of the 11/10 → 11/16 downswing and near the 20D mid-band zone).
• Downside magnets: $0.096–0.095 (near daily lower Bollinger projection and round-number clusters), then $0.092–0.090 (1.0–1.25x current daily ATR from a $0.100–0.101 entry), with extension risk toward $0.088 (Fib 78.6% of the 10/10 → 10/13 rebound) if momentum accelerates.

3. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Recent daily volume has tapered from the October shock but shows spikes on down days—classic distribution signature. Today’s intraday volume (already ~20M by 13:22 UTC) exceeds the full prior day (19.4M), and it coincides with the breakdown below $0.10—confirmation of supply dominance.
• OBV proxy: Lower highs into lower lows, no accumulation footprints visible on the retest attempts.

4. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA ≈ $0.1160 (computed): Price is ~15% below—firmly bearish, with mean reversion room above but limited by supply.
• 50-day SMA (approx.): Still up in the high teens (~$0.17–$0.19) post-September/October prints—well overhead and declining; very bearish long-term posture.
• Short-term EMAs (5/9/12) are likely stacked bearishly below the 20SMA and all pointing down. No crossover buy triggers.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (14): Estimated high 20s to low 30s after a string of declines. Oversold in a downtrend means “can stay oversold”; bounces tend to be sold into until RSI resets above ~40–45.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped sub-30 on the flush, modest mean-reversion attempts so far. No strong bullish divergence (lows and momentum both pressing lower with volume).
• MACD (daily): MACD line below signal and both below zero; histogram expanding negative—momentum build to the downside remains intact.
• Stochastics: Likely pinned low; cross-ups from sub-20 on intraday charts may fuel a small bounce into resistance, ideal for short entries.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~SMA20 ≈ $0.116, lower band estimated near ~$0.096–$0.097 given recent dispersion. Price is “walking the lower band,” typical of trend impulses. Expect limited upside to mid-band; more realistic is a tag/retest of the lower band then drift.
• ATR (14D): Estimated ~0.008–0.010. A 1x ATR move from a $0.100–0.101 entry projects to ~$0.092–$0.093 within 24h—aligns with our take-profit zone.
• Keltner Channels/Squeeze read: Bands have been re-expanding to the downside post a modest contraction; we are in the expansion phase—favor trend continuation trades over mean-reversion swing longs.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun, both sloped down; cloud overhead and thickened by prior volatility. No edge-to-edge setup for longs; context favors sells on rallies toward Tenkan/Kijun (both above $0.105–$0.112 area).

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: 10/10 low 0.0686 → 10/13 high 0.1609. 61.8% = ~0.1039 (recent floor now broken). 78.6% = ~0.0882 (next deeper support if selloff extends beyond 24h horizon).
• Swing B: 11/10 high 0.1262 → today’s 0.0982. Retrace bands for a bounce: 38.2% ≈ $0.1087, 50% ≈ $0.1122, 61.8% ≈ $0.1157. These align with overhead supply and moving-average gravity—excellent sell zones if reached (less likely within 24h unless a sharp squeeze occurs).

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle breakdown below $0.101 confirmed with volume—bearish continuation setup.
• Bearish channel intact since late Oct. The current move sits near the lower rail—favor “sell the midline/retest” rather than chase lows; hence entry preference near 0.1008.
• Candles: Most recent daily candles are small-bodied with downside follow-through, and today’s intraday profile shows a clear supply shove and weak responsive bidding—no bullish reversal candle printed yet.

10. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• Overnight/morning consolidation ~0.1017–0.1022 failed at VWAP; breakdown to 0.098s occurred on increased volume during 11:00–12:00 UTC.
• Hourly VWAP currently above price (~0.101–0.1015). First touch from below typically meets sellers in a downtrend; this is the tactical short entry zone.

11. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Minor bounce to 0.100–0.101 (maybe wick to 0.1015) then roll over toward 0.094–0.092. Close near lows.
• Bearish extension (25%): Weak bounce fails <0.100; direct drive to 0.095 then probe 0.090–0.092; brief illiquid spikes possible to 0.089.
• Bullish squeeze (15%): Stronger mean reversion tags 0.102–0.104; extreme case taps 0.105–0.106 before sellers reload. Trend remains down unless >0.109–0.112 reclaims and holds (low probability within 24h without catalyst).

12. Risk management and invalidation (for completeness)

• Optimal short entry: $0.1008 (limit at prior shelf/VWAP vicinity). If no bounce, consider passing rather than chasing sub-$0.098—risk of whipsaw increases near daily lower band.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the requested fields): Technical invalidation for the setup sits above $0.1032–0.1039 (prior 61.8% retrace and micro swing supply). Conservative stops ~0.1034; aggressive ~0.1029. A strong reclaim and hold above $0.1039 would warn of a squeeze toward $0.106–0.109.
• Take-profit logic: 1.0x ATR from entry ≈ $0.092–0.093 is reasonable in 24h; scale if possible. For single-target simplicity: $0.0924.

13. Synthesis

• Trend filters, momentum, volume confirmation, and pattern break all point bearish. The $0.10 floor broke on rising volume; intraday VWAP is above price; Bollinger lower-band walk intact; MACD/RSI not yet signaling a sustainable reversal. Expect a small bounce to sell into, then continuation toward $0.092–$0.095 within 24 hours.

Forecast (next 24 hours)

• Path: Bounce to 0.100–0.1015 → rejection → slide to 0.095–0.093 → settlement around 0.093–0.094, with tails possible to 0.092.

Decision

• Trade bias: Sell (Short Position)
• Entry: $0.1008 (retest of broken shelf/VWAP zone)
• Target (take profit): $0.0924
• Note: If entry does not trigger, avoid chasing near $0.098; reassess on the next clean retest or after a new consolidation forms.