PNUT poised for a snapback: Buying the 0.079–0.080 demand for a 0.0838 test within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bounce from deeply oversold, within a broader bearish trend. Expect a mean-reversion pop toward 0.0824–0.0845 if 0.079–0.080 holds. Breakdown risk persists toward 0.076–0.074 if 0.079 gives way.
• Plan: Long on a dip near 0.0796 aiming 0.0838 (prior day close/near-term resistance), with a tight invalidation below 0.0780. This is a short-term scalp against trend; larger trend remains down.

1. Price action and market structure (HTF daily to LTF hourly)

• Daily trend: Persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the early-October breakdown. Closes stepped down from ~0.13 in late Oct to 0.08345 on Nov 21 and 0.08007 currently.
• Key inflection: 2025-10-10 crash day (intraday low 0.06856, huge range). Post-crash distribution led to a rolling top in the 0.12–0.14 band, then a fresh leg lower Nov 16–21 that accelerated into new lows.
• Recent lows/highs: • 11-16 C 0.09615 → 11-17 C 0.09422 → 11-18 C 0.09799 → 11-19 C 0.09323 → 11-20 C 0.08935 → 11-21 C 0.08345 → Now 0.08007 • 11-21 daily: O 0.08937, H 0.09169, L 0.07927, C 0.08345 (wide range, heavy volume), implying capitulation characteristics.
• LTF (hourly, 11/21–11/22): Range 0.07921–0.08762. Price has compressed near the lower quartile of the range with small-bodied candles on low weekend liquidity, suggesting seller exhaustion but not yet a decisive reversal.

2. Support and resistance map

• Immediate support: 0.0793 (11-21 low, retested overnight to 0.07921–0.07926). Psychological round level at 0.080. Demand zone 0.079–0.080.
• Immediate resistance: 0.0829–0.0838 (hourly pivot cluster; 11-21 21:00 close 0.08376; 11-21 daily close 0.08345). Above that 0.0858–0.0863 (hourly supply from 17:00–18:00 on 11-21), then 0.089–0.092 (broken daily support turned resistance).
• Deeper supports if 0.079 breaks: 0.0750–0.0765 (round-number magnet + measured move), then 0.070–0.0686 (10-10 crash low).

3. Trend metrics (SMA/EMA)

• SMA20 (approx): ~0.1066 (avg of last 20 closes). Price at 0.0801 is ~25% below, indicating strong downside displacement.
• EMA9 (approx): ~0.094–0.096 (based on recent closes). Price below EMA9/EMA21/EMA50 → bearish alignment across moving averages.
• Slope: All short/intermediate MAs are downward sloping; trend remains bearish on daily.
• Implication: Countertrend bounces into 0.083–0.086 likely face supply; however, a reversion toward the hourly mean is plausible within 24h.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI14 (daily, qualitative): Likely sub-30 given persistent lower closes; oversold. Expectation for short-term mean reversion.
• Stochastic (daily, qualitative): Pressed near floor, supportive of a bounce if price stabilizes above 0.079–0.080.
• MACD (daily): Below zero, histogram negative and widening over recent days (bearish). On intraday frames, selling impulse appears to be losing marginal momentum near the bottom of range.
• Read-through: Daily momentum is bearish; intraday momentum suggests potential for a relief pop rather than sustained trend reversal.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~0.1066; lower band estimated near ~0.0806 (given recent sigma). Current price 0.0801 is at/just under the lower band → statistical oversold; mean reversion probability increases over the next 24h.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± ATR): Price sitting outside/below the lower Keltner boundary, further indicating extension where snapbacks are common.
• ATR14 (daily, qualitative): Elevated vs price (roughly 10–15% of spot), implying large daily ranges. A 4–6% intraday swing is within normal noise.

6. Volume/flow diagnostics

• Daily volume uptick on 11-20 (46M) and 11-21 (55M) during breakdowns suggests a possible capitulation flush into 0.079–0.083. This often precedes a countertrend bounce.
• Intraday today is quieter (weekend effect), typical of compression before a local move. Low liquidity can accentuate mean-reversion pops.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending lower, confirming distribution. However, capitulative spikes can mark short-term lows even as OBV lags.

7. VWAP and intraday microstructure

• Today’s intraday VWAP (approx) clusters around ~0.081. Spot at 0.0801 is slightly below VWAP → mild intraday discount. Reclaiming VWAP would open a path to 0.0829–0.0838.
• Liquidity/stop pockets: Obvious stops likely rest below 0.0792. A brief liquidity sweep to ~0.0787–0.0790 followed by a quick reclaim of 0.080 would be a classic spring pattern for a bounce toward 0.083–0.0845.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Micro swing (11-21 H 0.08762 to L 0.07927): • 23.6%: ~0.08125; 38.2%: ~0.08237; 61.8%: ~0.08452. • Price near 0.080 → upside magnet levels 0.0824 then 0.0845.
• Larger swing (11-10 H 0.12618 to 11-21 L 0.07927): • 23.6%: ~0.0903; 38.2%: ~0.0972; 50%: ~0.1027. These are beyond a 24h expectation but frame medium-term resistance if a multi-day retrace develops.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price well below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun < price? No, price < Tenkan < Kijun: full bearish stack. Cloud ahead likely thick; any bounce is countertrend and will meet resistance zones identified above.

10. Pattern recognition and candles

• 11-21 daily candle: Wide range down with a lower wick (not a textbook hammer), on elevated volume → suggests potential for near-term stabilization.
• 11-22 to this hour: Series of small-bodied, low-range candles clustering near 0.080, characteristic of base-building/compression after a sell climax.
• No confirmed reversal pattern yet; expecting a tactical pop rather than trend change.

11. Statistical framing

• Z-score vs SMA20: (0.0801 − 0.1066) / ~0.013 ≈ −2.0 σ. Moves beyond −2σ commonly revert partially within 1–2 sessions.
• 24h historical range (last day): ~10.6% peak-to-trough. A 3–6% reversion from here is statistically reasonable without violating the prevailing downtrend.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55%): Hold 0.079–0.080, then mean-reversion bounce to 0.0824–0.0838, potentially wicking 0.0845 on thin liquidity. Rationale: Lower-band tag, capitulation-like volume, intraday compression and proximity to micro Fibs.
• Neutral chop (≈20%): Pin within 0.0795–0.0818 as liquidity remains thin; directional move deferred.
• Bear continuation (≈25%): Clean break of 0.079 → momentum extension to 0.076–0.074; risk increases if 0.079 fails convincingly on rising volume.

13. Trade plan (short-term countertrend)

• Thesis: Exploit a statistically favorable mean-reversion bounce from a stretched, oversold state into nearby resistance (0.083–0.0845), while respecting the dominant bearish trend with a tight invalidation.
• Entry: Buy on a limit pullback near 0.0796 (just above the 0.0792–0.0793 swing low cluster to avoid missing the fill on a shallow dip). An alternative, more conservative entry is on VWAP reclaim >0.081 with slightly worse R:R.
• Target (TP): 0.0838 (confluence of prior close, hourly supply, and micro 38.2–61.8% retrace band). Stretch TP if momentum/volume expand: 0.0845.
• Invalidation (not part of required output but important): A firm hourly close <0.0788 or an impulsive breakdown with increasing volume. A practical stop could be 0.0779 to stay below obvious liquidity sweep.
• Risk/reward (to TP 0.0838): From 0.0796, upside ≈ +5.3%. Hypothetical stop 0.0779 implies downside ≈ −2.1%. R:R ≈ 2.5:1; positive expectancy given base case probability.

14. Synthesis and conclusion

• Structure and trend are decisively bearish on daily, but the confluence of: (1) lower Bollinger/Keltner breach, (2) −2σ displacement vs 20-day mean, (3) capitulation-like volume into fresh lows, and (4) intraday compression at a clear support shelf, collectively increase the odds of a short-duration bounce.
• Therefore, a tactical long makes sense with tight risk controls and modest targets. Medium-term, rallies are sells until price reclaims and holds above ~0.089–0.092.

Forecast (24h)

• Expected path: Early probe/dip to 0.0792–0.0796, liquidity sweep risk to ~0.0787, quick reclaim of 0.080 → grind toward 0.0824 → test 0.0835–0.0838. Volatility remains elevated; wick overshoots possible on thin weekend books.