Dip, Then Rip: PNUT’s Double‑Bottom Sets Up a 24‑Hour Mean‑Reversion Pop

Executive summary of today’s tape (context first): PNUT is rebounding from a multi‑week downtrend that accelerated after the 10/10 crash. Over the past four sessions it printed a local low at 0.0793 (11/21), based near 0.081–0.082, and today pushed to 0.08965 before consolidating at 0.0885. Intraday breadth was constructive, with higher highs and rising OBV on the push through multiple intraday resistance bands. The evidence supports a continued mean‑reversion bounce over the next 24 hours, with a dip‑then‑rip path favored.

Step‑by‑step technical walkthrough:

1. Trend, structure, and regime

• Primary trend (daily): Down. Price is below the 50D and 200D (implied from the pre‑crash regime >0.13–0.20). The 20D SMA is approximately 0.102 (see SMA math below), and price at 0.0885 remains below it. This is a counter‑trend bounce within a broader bear structure.
• Market structure (daily): After lower lows into 11/21, PNUT built a base 11/22–11/23 (0.081–0.084) and today broke upward toward the neckline zone around 0.089–0.090. This resembles a double‑bottom (11/21 and 11/22–23) with a neckline near 0.089–0.090; measured move implies 0.097 target (neckline 0.089 minus trough 0.081 ≈ 0.008 added to neckline ≈ 0.097).
• Intraday structure (hourly): Higher highs (0.0890 → 0.08965) and higher lows (0.08697 → 0.08679) show a bullish micro‑trend. Post‑spike consolidation has been orderly above VWAP.

2. Moving averages and momentum

• 20D SMA (approx): Sum of the last 20 closes ≈ 2.0403; SMA20 ≈ 2.0403/20 ≈ 0.1020. Price is below SMA20, leaving room for mean reversion toward 0.098–0.102.
• Short EMAs (8–10): Using the last 8 closes (11/17–11/24), the EMA8 is rising and sits roughly in the 0.086–0.087 zone. Today’s close 0.0885 is above the short EMA stack → short‑term bullish momentum.
• RSI (daily): After prolonged selling into 11/21, RSI rebounded from oversold; the strong green day likely pushed it toward the mid‑30s/low‑40s, pointing to recovering momentum but not overbought.
• MACD (daily): Still negative, but histogram is contracting; a bullish turn is plausible if price continues to grind toward 0.095–0.100 this week.
• Stochastic: Rising out of oversold, consistent with early‑stage bounce dynamics.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (proxy): Recent true ranges suggest ~0.010–0.012 (10–14% of price). Expect wide intraday swings; a ±0.005–0.007 move is routine.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ SMA20 ≈ 0.102; lower band likely mid‑0.07s to low‑0.08s after the 11/21 tag. Price bounced off the lower band and is traveling back toward the midline: mean‑reversion bias up.
• Keltner vs. Bollinger: Today’s strength pressed toward the upper Keltner on intraday frames; consolidation below 0.090 looks like energy build rather than climax.

4. Support, resistance, and pivots

• Immediate supports: 0.0863–0.0865 (intraday VWAP/38.2% intraday retrace), 0.0852 (50% intraday retrace), 0.0833 (tomorrow’s S1 by pivot math), 0.0817 (11/23 close), and 0.0793 (11/21 swing low – critical).
• Immediate resistances: 0.0897–0.0906 (11/24 high cluster + Ichimoku Tenkan proxy), 0.0917 (R1 for next session), 0.0932–0.0949 (prior daily supply + R2), 0.0972 (38.2% retrace of 11/10 high → 11/21 low), 0.100–0.102 (psych/20D SMA).
• Daily pivot set for next session (using 11/24 H/L/C ≈ 0.08965/0.08120/0.08851): • Pivot P ≈ 0.08646; S1 ≈ 0.08326; R1 ≈ 0.09171; R2 ≈ 0.09491; S2 ≈ 0.07801.

5. Ichimoku snapshot (daily, approximated)

• Tenkan‑sen ≈ (9‑period high + low)/2 ≈ (0.10217 + 0.07911)/2 ≈ 0.09064 → immediate dynamic resistance.
• Kijun‑sen (26) is much higher (~0.109), reflecting the prior regime; cloud is overhead and bearish. Takeaway: first resistance band at ~0.0906 aligns with observed supply.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 11/10 high 0.12618 → 11/21 low 0.07927; Δ ≈ 0.04692. • 38.2%: 0.07927 + 0.01793 ≈ 0.09720. • 50%: ≈ 0.10273. • 61.8%: ≈ 0.10821. Near‑term bounce objective is 0.0972; this marries nicely with the measured move from the double bottom and sits under the 20D SMA.
• Intraday swing (11/23 low 0.08067 → 11/24 high 0.08965; Δ ≈ 0.00898): • 38.2%: ≈ 0.08625. • 50%: ≈ 0.08516. • 61.8%: ≈ 0.08407. Ideal dip‑buy zone is 0.0863–0.0852, with 0.08625 the “first touch” magnet if we see a gentle pullback.

7. Volume, breadth, and money flow

• Volume trend: After the early‑Nov liquidation, volumes compressed; today saw notable intraday bursts (biggest around 15:00 UTC hour), consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
• OBV / CMF (qualitative): Both likely ticked higher today given up‑day on higher relative volume, supporting the bounce thesis.
• VWAP: Price held above session VWAP into the close, a positive tell for continuation if VWAP holds as support on early dips.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Double bottom: Troughs 0.079–0.082; neckline 0.089–0.090. Break/close above 0.089 is constructive; sustained closes above ~0.091 would validate a run at 0.094–0.097.
• Mean reversion: Clear lower‑band tag 11/21, three‑day basing, breakout today → classic sequence toward the 20D mean (~0.102) over several sessions, with 0.094–0.097 the next 24h achievable band.
• Elliott‑style framing: An A‑wave off 0.079 into 0.0896, a B‑wave pullback toward 0.086–0.085, and a C‑wave extension targeting 0.092–0.095 (stretch 0.097) within 24h fits the tape.

9. Risk mapping and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 0.0863–0.0855, holds above 0.085, then impulse to 0.0917 (R1). If momentum persists, extension to 0.0949 (R2). Close in 0.091–0.093 range.
• Bullish extension (25%): Shallow dip or straight breakout through 0.0906/Tenkan → 0.0949; wick toward 0.096–0.097 if order books thin above R2.
• Bearish fade (15%): Failure to hold 0.085 → revisit 0.0833 (S1). Only a decisive break below 0.0817 opens risk back to 0.079; probability lower given today’s accumulation.

10. Confluence and edge

• Confluences to the upside: Double‑bottom activation, intraday HH/HL structure, price over short EMAs and VWAP, pivot math pointing to 0.0917/0.0949, Tenkan test overhead, Fib 38.2% objective at 0.0972, and Bollinger mean‑reversion path toward the midline.
• Key checks to manage risk: Maintain above 0.085 on dips; if lost, expect probe to 0.0833. Continuation requires a clean reclaim/hold above 0.0906.

11. Trade plan logic and timing

• Bias: Buy dips in the 0.0863–0.0852 zone aligned with intraday Fib support, VWAP vicinity, and tomorrow’s pivot P (0.08646). This balances fill probability and R:R to R1/R2.
• Target selection: First objective 0.0917 (R1). Preferred take‑profit at 0.0949 (R2), with optional stretch to 0.0972 if momentum is strong. To keep the plan executable within 24h, set TP at 0.0949.
• Stop (for risk management, not part of output requirement): Below 0.0832 (S1), invalidating the intraday higher‑low structure. That yields a favorable R:R vs. 0.0949.

12. Price path forecast (next 24h)

• Expected range: 0.083–0.095 (tail risk 0.097 on momentum spike). Central path: dip 0.086–0.085, rally to 0.092–0.095, settle near 0.092.

Decision and execution

• Direction: Buy (Long). The confluence of a double‑bottom neckline reclaim, positive intraday structure, and mean‑reversion vectors argues for a continuation bounce.
• Optimal open price (limit): 0.08625 to capture the 38.2% intraday retracement zone with high fill odds.
• Close price (take profit): 0.09490 (next‑session R2 confluence and just below visible supply), achievable in the baseline and extension scenarios.

Note: While the broader trend is still down on higher timeframes, the next 24 hours favor an upside continuation bounce. Use a disciplined stop below 0.0833 if executing this plan in practice to protect against trend resumption lower.