Fade the 38.2%: Short PNUT into 0.0886–0.0897, target a VWAP slide to 0.0847

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect 0.0845–0.0895 range with a downward skew; highest-prob path is a rejection near 0.0886–0.0897 and a drift toward 0.0850–0.0847.
• Trade idea: Short the 38.2% Fib/past intraday resistance retest near 0.0886 with a take-profit into 0.0847. Stop (not required field, but for risk control) just above 0.0906–0.0910.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since mid‑September. Lower highs from 0.28 → 0.26 → 0.24 → 0.226 → 0.163 → 0.152 → 0.142 → 0.138 → 0.130 → 0.124 → 0.112 → 0.101 → 0.096 → 0.089 → 0.083. Lower lows intact. Structural bear market on daily.
• Regime shift: Sharp gap-down/flush on Oct 10 (low print 0.0686 intraday) followed by weeks of distribution and step-downs; rallies continue to be sold. Recent local low 0.08136 (Nov 22), bounce to 0.08831 (Nov 24 close) and today’s range 0.0846–0.0889.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): A compression channel with higher intraday lows from ~0.0853/0.0857 to ~0.0872, but capped repeatedly at 0.0885–0.0889. The tape shows mean‑reversion moves around a VWAP-like anchor near 0.0869. Price into the close sits at 0.08783, beneath key micro-resistance 0.0886–0.0890 and beneath the prior day’s spike high 0.089665.

2. Key levels: support/resistance map

• Resistance: 0.0886–0.0890 (38.2% retrace of 11/20→11/22 swing + repeated intraday rejection), 0.0897 (11/24 H), 0.0916 (Classic Pivot R1 from 11/24), 0.0910–0.0917 (50% retrace/near-term supply), 0.0934 (61.8% retrace), 0.1000 (psychological + prior breakdown shelf), 0.105–0.113 (old balance area).
• Support: 0.0869 (intraday POC/VWAP region), 0.0862/0.0859 (hourly pullback shelf), 0.0853 (hourly swing low), 0.0846 (today’s session low zone), 0.08345 (11/21 close), 0.08306 (Pivot S1), 0.08136 (11/22 low).

3. Moving averages (contextual, approximate)

• Daily: Price trades well below 20D/50D MAs; slope of both is down, confirming the dominant bear trend. Any bounce remains countertrend until >0.100–0.112 is reclaimed.
• Hourly: Price is slightly above the short EMAs (e.g., 20/50-EMA cluster ~0.0865–0.0872), indicating near-term momentum improved but stalling beneath overhead supply 0.0886–0.0897. This is classic bear-market rally behavior into resistance.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Low-to-mid 30s/40 area, consistent with bearish regime but not deeply oversold after the small bounce; room to fall again without triggering oversold.
• Hourly RSI: Mid-50s to high-50s earlier, now easing as price stalls under resistance; momentum positive but fading at the top of the micro-range. Divergence risk: minor bearish divergence vs. earlier 0.0889 tick.
• Stochastics (hourly): Cycling down from overbought zone due to repeated failures near 0.0886–0.0889; favors a pullback within the range.
• MACD (hourly): Histogram modestly positive but flattening; signal cross risk if 0.0869 breaks, which would invite a test of 0.0855–0.0847.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) proxy: ~0.007–0.010 (8–12% of price) after the October shock, still elevated. Implies room for a 0.084–0.092 span in a normal session; today’s realized fits the lower half of that envelope.
• Hourly realized range today ~0.0043 from low to high (0.0846→0.0889), enough to reach both trade trigger and target within a day if volatility persists.
• Bollinger Bands
  • Daily: Price hovering in lower half, bands not extremely tight—trend continuation risk remains. Bounces tend to fade near middle band on daily; price is still below that band.
  • Hourly: Price repeatedly tagged/approached upper band near 0.0886–0.0889 and failed; suggests short-term mean reversion lower is likely.

6. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Volume: Rising on attempts higher (e.g., 12:00 and 20:00 hours) but not decisive; sellers cap the advances. No accumulation signature strong enough to call a reversal.
• OBV (qualitative): Flat-to-drifting lower since 11/24 high, reflecting distribution at resistance.
• Participation: Peaks around tests of 0.0879–0.0889 and quickly fades; supports idea of supply lurking above.

7. VWAP and market profile

• Intraday VWAP/POC: Centered near 0.0868–0.0870 with multiple touches; price currently above VWAP but failing to expand away. Typical pattern in bear rallies is a roll back to VWAP and further to lower value 0.0855–0.0850 if buyers do not push through resistance on volume.
• Volume nodes: Acceptance around 0.0867–0.0872; thin above 0.0886 which needs energy to sustain. Lack of follow-through today argues for fade-the-rally.

8. Fibonacci framework (11/20 swing H 0.10023 to 11/22 swing L 0.08136)

• 38.2%: 0.08857 (today’s ceiling cluster). Price now 0.08783 sits just below this retrace.
• 50%: 0.09099 (confluent with pivot R1 region 0.0916 and a prior supply shelf). Strong resistance if 0.0897 breaks.
• 61.8%: 0.09342 (stretch target on upside breakout; less likely within 24h without catalyst).
• Strategy implication: First touch of 38.2% in a downtrend often gets faded unless volume expansion breaks it. So far we see rejection, favoring a short.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; cloud ahead bearish. Strong trend filter remains short.
• Hourly: Price near-to-above the cloud base; Tenkan > Kijun earlier but flattening; leading span ahead flat around 0.0868–0.0872. Flat Kumo magnets often pull price back—another confluence to retest 0.0869/0.0862.

10. Candlestick/price pattern cues

• Hourly candles near top of range show small bodies and upper wicks around 0.0886–0.0889 (indecision/spinning tops), indicative of supply absorption failing. No bullish engulfing at highs. On the downside, buyers did defend 0.0855–0.0859 earlier; however, supply overhead still dominates.
• Daily candles post-11/21: one strong up day (11/24) now followed by stalling under resistance; often leads to a dip to retrace 50–61.8% of the up day’s body—points toward 0.085–0.0847.

11. Pivots (Classic from 11/24: H=0.089665, L=0.081114, C=0.088308)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.08636; R1 ≈ 0.09161; S1 ≈ 0.08306; R2 ≈ 0.09491; S2 ≈ 0.07781.
• Price above P yet far from R1; repeated failure before even tagging R1 suggests lack of thrust. Mean reversion toward P (0.08636) likely; extension to S1 (0.08306) possible on momentum.

12. Statistical/mean-reversion view

• Given the repeated intraday failures at the 38.2% retrace and proximity to the day’s upper quartile, z-score vs. 24h VWAP is mildly positive; probabilities favor a drift back toward VWAP and possibly to the lower decile if sellers press.

13. Risk management and scenario tree (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Rejection in 0.0886–0.0897 zone → fade to 0.0869 (VWAP) → continuation to 0.0853–0.0847. Close near 0.0850–0.0855.
• Alt case up (10%): Strong volume breakout above 0.0897 → quick tag 0.0910–0.0917; overshoot risk to 0.0934 if momentum/short-covering appears. Would invalidate the short setup—hence a prudent stop above ~0.0906–0.0910.
• Alt case range (30%): Ping-pong 0.0862–0.0889 consolidating under resistance; late-session drift lower as momentum bleeds.

14. Confluence summary for the short

• Macro trend: Down on daily (bearish market structure).
• Location: Price sitting just under Fib 38.2% + repeated intraday supply + prior-day high zone.
• Momentum: Hourly momentum stalling; possible bearish divergence.
• Volatility/BB: Near upper band; mean reversion favored.
• Pivots: Above P but below R1; classic short-the-mid to target P/S1 play.
• VWAP/POC: Magnet at 0.0868–0.0870; below that, vacuum to 0.0853/0.0847.

15. Execution plan (precision levels)

• Entry: Limit Sell at 0.08860 (Fib 38.2% + intraday supply). If price doesn’t retest, an alternate is a momentum entry on loss of 0.0869 VWAP with a worse fill; prefer the retest for optimal R:R.
• Take profit: 0.08470 (just above the 0.08455 intraday support cluster to improve fill odds). This harvests the bulk of the expected mean-reversion path.
• Suggested stop (not part of the required fields): 0.09060–0.09100, above 50% retrace/pivot R1 shelf. R:R ≈ (0.08860→0.08470 = 0.00390) vs. risk (to 0.09060 = 0.00200) ≈ 1.95:1; to 0.09100 ≈ 2.40:1.

16. 24-hour price path forecast

• Expected high: 0.0895–0.0899 (if a retest occurs; breakout probability lower without volume expansion).
• Expected low: 0.0845–0.0838 (with tail risk to 0.0831 S1 on acceleration).
• Close bias (T+24h): 0.0850–0.0860.

Bottom line: The balance of evidence across trend, Fibs, pivots, VWAP/profile, and momentum favors selling strength into 0.0886–0.0897 with a target back toward 0.0850–0.0847 over the next 24 hours. Manage for the low-probability breakout above 0.0897 that could run to 0.091–0.0934.