PNUT poised for a neckline retest and breakout run toward 0.097–0.099 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for PNUT (as of 2025-12-08 21:57 UTC)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (1D): The broader structure remains a dominant downtrend since the mid-Sept peak (~0.28) with successive lower highs/lows into late Nov/early Dec. However, price has carved out a short-term base between 0.081–0.091 over the last two weeks and has now reclaimed the 20-day SMA, signaling a nascent bullish swing within a larger bearish regime.
• Intermediate swing: A double-bottom/complex accumulation formed around 0.0812 (Dec 1) and 0.0814 (Dec 5) with a higher low at 0.0836 (Dec 7). The breakout above the neckline band at 0.0896–0.0901 on Dec 8 shifts near-term structure to bullish (BOS: break of prior range high), opening room toward 0.0947, 0.097–0.099, and potentially 0.103 if momentum persists.
• Intraday (1H): Today printed a sequence of higher highs/higher lows from ~0.084 to ~0.092 with notable volume expansion during the breakout hours (15:00–16:00 UTC). The move is extended on the 1H, favoring a pullback/retest entry rather than chasing.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, volume nodes, and prior highs/lows)

• Immediate resistance: 0.0919–0.0922 (current intraday supply), 0.0947 (Dec 7 high/liquidity pocket), 0.0975–0.0993 (measured objective from pattern), 0.1034 (Nov 28 spike-high/20D Donchian upper bound).
• Support/entry zones: 0.0901–0.0903 (neckline retest and session VWAP vicinity), 0.0892–0.0895 (micro demand and overnight pivot), 0.0880 (pivot and 1H structure shelf), 0.0835–0.0840 (deeper pullback to prior HL/volume shelf).
• Volume-by-price inference: The heaviest recent rotation has occurred between 0.088–0.091, creating a strong node that should act as a magnet/support on pullbacks. Above 0.092, the volume-tapered area to ~0.095 suggests price could accelerate if 0.092 holds as support.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 0.0879 (estimated from last 20 closes) — reclaimed; short-term bias is now up. Price is ~4.3% above SMA20.
• Daily SMA50 (not computed but likely >0.11 given prior prices) — still above price, implying the broader trend is down and rallies remain corrective until reclaimed.
• 1H EMA20 is rising and sits just below price; expect dynamic support near ~0.0898–0.0905 on mean-reversion wicks.
• Takeaway: Bullish short-term momentum inside a longer-term bearish channel; use pullbacks to rising short MAs for tactical longs.

4. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Rising and likely in the 52–58 range (estimate). A shift above 50 confirms bull-range conditions for momentum. No bearish divergence is present on daily yet.
• RSI(14) 1H: Overbought on the thrust (likely >70). This argues for a shallow pullback (RSI reset) toward 0.090–0.0905 before the next leg.
• Stochastic (Daily): Curling up through mid-band toward 70; momentum improving but not yet extreme.
• MACD (Daily): Histogram turning positive/flattening with MACD line near a bull cross vs. signal. This typically precedes 1–3 sessions of upside follow-through if price holds above the 20SMA.
• Takeaway: Momentum improving on daily; 1H stretched. Favor buying dips over chasing highs.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~0.0055–0.0060. Expect typical daily range of ~0.005–0.007. From a 0.090–0.091 base, that projects to 0.095–0.098 on extensions; aligns with pattern targets.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid ≈ 0.0879; upper ≈ 0.095–0.096 (est.). Price is approaching the upper band; either a brief band-walk (trend continuation) or a mean-reversion retest to the mid-upper band zone (0.089–0.091) is likely before extending.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR) Daily: Price expanded to or slightly outside the upper KC intraday — a common breakout signature. Often followed by a pullback inside the channel before the next impulse.
• Donchian (20D): Upper ~0.1034; Lower ~0.0791; mid-range ~0.0912. Price is probing above mid-range; clearing 0.0947 would aim the top quartile of the range.

6. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Price > Tenkan (9) (≈ 0.0886 est.), but < Kijun (26) (≈ 0.098–0.102 est.), and well below the Cloud (Senkou span likely >0.11). This is a classic early-stage recovery: short-term tailwind while higher timeframe resistance sits above. Kijun around ~0.098–0.10 aligns with our upside objectives.

7. Volume/money flow

• OBV (qualitative): Curling up since Dec 5; confirms accumulation under price rises.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Improving, with positive money flow on breakout hours (15:00–16:00, 16:00–17:00 UTC) and no immediate sign of distribution at highs.
• Participation: The breakout occurred on expanding volume after a quiet Asian session — constructive for durability if pullbacks remain shallow.

8. Pattern recognition

• Inverse Head & Shoulders / Double Bottom variant: Left ~0.0812 (Dec 1), Head ~0.0814 (Dec 5), Right ~0.0836 (Dec 7). Neckline 0.0896–0.0901. Breakout measured move ≈ neckline minus head ≈ 0.009–0.0095, projecting 0.099–0.100 on completion. Conservative interim targets: 0.0947 (local high), 0.0975–0.0993 (measured move cluster).
• Micro bull flag (1H): Post-breakout consolidation between 0.0909–0.0919; likely to resolve higher after an RSI reset/pullback.
• No clear bearish reversal candles on the daily close prior to today; intraday shows momentum thrusts rather than blow-off patterns.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 0.2809 (Sept 13 high) to 0.0790 (Dec 1 low). 23.6% retrace = ~0.1267; 38.2% = ~0.1561. Current ~0.0917 is well below 23.6%; this remains a countertrend rally on the macro scale, but room to mean-revert exists.
• Local swing: 0.08345 (Nov 21–Dec 7 base) to 0.10343 (Nov 28 high). 61.8% retrace ≈ 0.0901; price reclaimed it and is retesting from above — bullish. Golden-pocket reclaim + neckline confluence strengthens the 0.090–0.0903 buy zone.

10. Trend strength (ADX/DI)

• ADX (Daily) est. rising from ~14–16 toward high teens. +DI has crossed above -DI. This usually precedes a tradable swing but suggests trend is only moderately strong; pullbacks are expected.

11. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (Dec 8) approximates ~0.0897–0.0900 after the breakout volume. Price is above VWAP, signaling buyers in control. A back-to-VWAP tag is a typical high-probability continuation entry on the next dip.
• Anchored VWAPs from local pivot lows (Dec 1, Dec 5) also skate around 0.088–0.0895; these form secondary supports beneath the neckline.

12. Elliott wave (intraday sketch)

• Impulsive structure from ~0.085: Wave 1 to ~0.0894; Wave 2 to ~0.0879; Wave 3 to ~0.0911; Wave 4 to ~0.0898 (neckline tap); Wave 5 extension to ~0.092. This suggests either a brief ABC down into 0.090–0.0905 or a shallow drift before a fresh impulse targeting 0.0947/0.097.

13. Risk management and positioning logic

• Base case (60%): Pullback toward 0.090–0.0905, hold above 0.0895, then extension to 0.0947 and 0.097–0.099 within the next 24h as bands expand and MACD turns decisively positive.
• Alternative (30%): Deeper mean reversion to 0.0880–0.0885 (fills gaps/liquidity), then bounce; this would still keep the higher low structure intact but delay breakout targets by 24–48h.
• Bearish break (10%): Loss of 0.0880 leads to a test of 0.084–0.085 and jeopardizes the newly formed bullish structure.
• Suggested stop (not part of asked fields, but for risk framing): below 0.0875 (beneath neckline/VWAP cluster and 1H swing shelf). With an entry ~0.0902 and target ~0.0979, that’s ~2.7c risk vs. ~7.7c reward (R:R ≈ 2.8–3.0), consistent with a high-quality continuation setup.

14. 24-hour price path prediction

• Expect an early dip to 0.0902 ± 0.0005 to reset 1H oscillators. If 0.0895–0.0902 holds, a push to 0.0945–0.0950 is likely, with an extension attempt to 0.097–0.098. A spike toward 0.099 can occur if 0.095 is reclaimed on rising volume. Failure to hold 0.0895 would likely probe 0.0880 before buyers attempt another leg up.

Conclusion

• The confluence of a neckline breakout, 20D SMA reclaim, improving daily momentum (RSI>50, MACD curling up), supportive volume behavior, and intraday structure favors a buy-the-dip strategy. The optimal tactic is a limit buy on a retest of 0.090–0.0903, aiming for 0.097–0.098 first target, with the possibility of a stretch toward 0.099 if momentum persists.