PNUT at the Pivot: Rejection at 9.55c Sets Up a Short Back to 8.7c

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish inside a broader downtrend, expecting a fade from 9.2–9.3c toward 8.9c with risk of a liquidity sweep to ~8.7c.
• Setup: Short the lower-high retest beneath a capped 9.55c supply. Optimal entry on a bounce back into 9.18–9.25c (VWAP/23.6% Fib/Hourly supply). Target 8.69–8.90c.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily: Persistent downtrend since mid-September (lower highs and lower lows). Large structural break on Oct 10 (flash-crash; volatility regime shift). Since late November, price carved a short-term base 8.1–9.2c, but remains well below the declining 50-day SMA, confirming the primary bear trend.
• 1H (last 48h): Sequence of higher highs into 9.557c today, followed by a rejection wick and loss of intraday momentum. Current price 9.065c sits below intraday VWAP and below the afternoon impulse high, signaling a transition from impulsive up-move to mean reversion.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistance:
  • 0.0918–0.0924: 23.6% Fib of 8.122c → 9.557c leg; prior hourly closing cluster; intraday VWAP zone.
  • 0.0946–0.0956: Today’s spike high/upper supply (12/7 high 9.474c; today 9.557c). Sellers defended; prominent rejection wick.
• Support:
  • 0.0901: 38.2% Fib of 8.122c → 9.557c (bulls want to hold here for momentum continuation).
  • 0.0883–0.0885: 50% Fib, today’s 14:00 hour low (8.848c), recent micro shelf.
  • 0.0866–0.0869: 61.8% Fib and high-probability liquidity pool below today’s mid-session lows.
  • 0.0812–0.0814: Base support; multiple touches (12/1, 12/5). Swing fail below here would re-open the macro down leg.

3. Moving averages

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 8.8–8.9c: Price modestly above, indicating short-term bounce inside a larger downtrend.
• Daily 50-SMA > price (materially, likely ~11–12c): Confirms primary bearish regime.
• 1H 20/50-EMA: Post-spike compression and potential bear cross developing as price now trades under the 1H VWAP and loses momentum; favors a fade of bounces rather than chasing upside.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 50 (neutral): Balanced gains/losses these past two weeks; no clear momentum edge for bulls.
• 1H RSI: Rolled over from overbought zone post 9.55c spike; now mid-to-low 40s, consistent with distribution under resistance.
• MACD (daily): Attempted shallow bull cross near the zero line, but histogram likely flattening after rejection at 9.55c; limited thrust.
• Stochastic (1H): Bearish cross from overbought, supportive of a pullback toward 8.9–8.7c.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily rough ≈ 0.006–0.008: Implies typical daily swing of 0.6–0.8c.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band near 8.8–8.9c; upper ~9.7–9.8c; lower ~7.9–8.0c. Price kissed upper band vicinity intraday (9.56c equivalent on 1H) and reverted—classic mean-reversion signal in a downtrend.

6. Volume, VWAP, and orderflow

• Today’s 10:00 hour printed heavy volume into 9.29c, pulling VWAP up; the later squeeze to 9.557c occurred on much lower volume and was sold, signaling exhaustion.
• Intraday VWAP ≈ 9.15–9.2c (est.): Current price below VWAP → sellers in control intraday; rallies to VWAP are favorable short entries.
• OBV/daily participation: Post-12/1 accumulation is tepid; 12/7’s sell-day had notable volume, indicating supply overhead remains potent.

7. Pattern context

• Potential micro inverse head-and-shoulders from 11/22–12/8 with neckline ~9.2–9.24c. However, the breakout was not confirmed by sustained closes above the neckline; today’s rejection near 9.56c cautions a failed breakout risk. A classic failed IHS often retraces to 50–61.8% of the right-shoulder rally (8.85–8.67c), aligning with our downside targets.
• 1H prints a bearish rejection (upper shadow) at 17:00 after the breakout spike, followed by three hours of lower highs/lows—micro distribution.

8. Fibonacci map (swing 8.122c low → 9.557c high)

• 23.6%: 9.218c (current sell zone and VWAP confluence)
• 38.2%: 9.009c
• 50%: 8.839c
• 61.8%: 8.671c Interpretation: Losing 9.01c intraday opens a magnet to 8.84c (T1) and potentially 8.67c (T2) within one ATR.

9. Ichimoku snapshot (qualitative)

• Price below the daily Kijun and cloud; Tenkan rising but under Kijun. Any rally into 9.2–9.6c is likely to encounter cloud/supply pressure. Until a clean daily close >9.6–10.0c, trend strength favors selling rallies.

10. Scenarios and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Mean reversion lower. Early bounce to 9.18–9.25c gets sold → push down to 8.88–8.84c, with tails possible toward 8.67c.
• Bullish continuation (30%): Strong reclaim above 9.25c, then acceptance above 9.46–9.56c flips momentum; squeeze targets 9.95–10.35c (11/28 high 10.343c). Needs volume expansion and 1H closes above 9.56c.
• Deep flush (15%): If 8.84c breaks on volume, swift stop-run to 8.67c; less likely to extend to the 8.1c base within 24h absent a catalyst.

11. Trade plan (short bias)

• Rationale: Primary downtrend intact; intraday VWAP rejection; failed breakout risk; bearish rejection wick at 9.55c; momentum rolling; multiple confluences on 23.6% Fib/VWAP as an optimal short entry.
• Entry: Sell a retest of 9.20–9.25c (use 9.219c as representative). If price does not bounce, consider scaling on a minor uptick from current to 9.1–9.2c.
• Target: 8.69c (between 61.8% Fib 8.671c and liquidity shelf). Conservative partials at 8.84–8.90c. For this single-target mandate, publish 8.69c.
• Invalidation (not part of order fields, but crucial): Hourly close above 9.58–9.60c or a daily close above 9.70c would negate the setup and imply targeting 10.0–10.35c.

12. Risk notes

• Liquidity is variable; slippage risk around the 8.8–8.7c pocket. Size appropriately.
• If a high-volume reclaim above 9.25c holds multiple hours, reassess; that would favor the bullish scenario toward 9.95–10.35c.

Forecast for next 24 hours

• Expected path: Early bounce toward 9.20–9.25c → roll over to 8.90c; likely intraday range 8.67c–9.35c, with closing bias near the lower half of the range.

Conclusion

• Edge favors selling strength into 9.2–9.3c, targeting 8.69c within the next session, in line with the dominant daily downtrend and intraday momentum rollover.