PNUT Snaps Its Multi‑Week Floor: Short the Retest Before the Next Leg Lower

Executive summary

• Signal: Bearish continuation over the next 24 hours after a clean break of the multi-week 0.079–0.080 floor. Expect a reflexive bounce into 0.080–0.081 (retest of broken support) followed by a push toward 0.076–0.077.
• Plan: Sell the retest. Optimal entry zone ~0.0808. Target 0.0760 within 24 hours. Invalidation for the idea would be an hourly reclaim/close above ~0.0832–0.0837 (analysis only).

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher-timeframe trend: Strong downtrend since mid-September (0.25 → ~0.08). Lower highs and lower lows throughout October–December. Momentum spikes down on 2025-10-10 (intraday crash to ~0.0686) defined the bear regime; since then, every bounce has been sold.
• December range: 0.079–0.092 established between 12/01 and 12/12. Today’s print at 0.07849 is a fresh breakdown through the range floor (0.0790–0.0793 cluster from 11/21, 11/22, 12/01). That converts prior support into resistance. Structural takeaway: bearish continuation bias.
• Pattern: Clear descending triangle into the 0.079 base (lower highs from 12/09 0.0956 → 12/13 0.0843), now broken. Measured move of the range (~0.013) projects toward ~0.066 over days/weeks, though our 24-hour expectation is more modest (~0.076).
• Support/resistance map (near-term):
  • Resistance: 0.0798–0.0812 (breakdown retest and prior pivot S2); 0.0823–0.0837 (intraday supply, hourly LH cluster); 0.0850/0.0861/0.0871 (Fib retraces of 12/09 → 12/14 swing).
  • Support: 0.0785 (new low, currently being probed); 0.0770 (psych/round), 0.0760 (measured 1xATR extension), 0.0745–0.0750 (prior micro swing shelf), and 0.0686 (October capitulation low; unlikely in next 24h unless a fresh shock arrives).

2. Multi-timeframe momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Approx ~55 recently but rolling over; importantly, price is printing new lows despite a mid-week RSI bounce—bearish momentum resumption. Not oversold on daily, so there’s room to extend lower.
• Hourly RSI(14): Oversold (low-to-mid 20s) on the breakdown sequence; ripe for a reflexive bounce to retest broken support before continuation. This aligns with a short-the-bounce approach.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Near pinned in oversold on hourly; expect a brief %K/%D cross up, typically a selling opportunity in a downtrend if price stalls below prior support.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and zero line; histogram expanding negative after failing at ~0.091–0.092 earlier in week. Bearish impulse intact.
• MACD (hourly): Deeply negative with tentative histogram contraction in the last couple of hours—supports a small bounce before next leg.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 7/14/20 SMAs: Price ~0.0785 sits ~8–10% below 7–20D SMAs (~0.085–0.087), solidly below a declining MA stack—trend-confirming bearish.
• 50D trend (proxy): Down and well above spot, acting as dynamic resistance in the mid 0.09s. Any bounce into mid-0.08s/low-0.09s likely meets supply.
• Positioning takeaway: Rallies into 0.081–0.086 are likely to fade in current regime.

4. Volatility, bands, and ranges

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): 20D MA near ~0.086; lower band ~0.078–0.079. Spot is riding the lower band—classic trend continuation condition. Riding the band does not equal immediate reversal; instead, look for mean reversion tags to short. A tag to ~0.081–0.082 (lower-band mean drift) is plausible before rolling over.
• ATR(14) daily: ~0.005–0.006. A 24-hour expected move suggests 0.0785 ± 0.003–0.006 → rough near-term range 0.075–0.084. Bias puts us toward the lower half post-retest.

5. Volume, flows, and participation

• Daily volume: Lower than peak crisis levels but increased on the range breakdown days (11/28, 12/07–12/09, and today’s intraday hours). The most recent hourly selloff posted rising volume—confirmation of downside break.
• OBV: Drifting lower through December; distribution outweighs accumulation. No bullish divergence noted.
• MFI(14): Pressured; not at extreme lows on daily, leaving room for further downside while allowing a tactical bounce intraday.

6. Ichimoku framework

• Daily price below Tenkan and Kijun, below the Kumo; future cloud bearish. Tenkan/Kijun baseline likely ~0.084–0.086; with Chikou beneath price—bearish stack. Any bounce into Tenkan/Kijun is a short setup while below the cloud.

7. Fibonacci mapping (12/09 high 0.095645 → 12/14 low 0.078489)

• Range = 0.017156. Key retraces from the low: 38.2% ≈ 0.08505; 50% ≈ 0.08607; 61.8% ≈ 0.08707. These sit above immediate resistance and beyond our 24h expectation unless a squeeze occurs. For the next day, focus on nearer supply first: 0.080–0.083.

8. Pivots and levels

• Classical pivots using 12/13 (H/L/C: 0.084324/0.082032/0.083625):
  • P ≈ 0.08333; S1 ≈ 0.08233; S2 ≈ 0.08104; R1 ≈ 0.08462. Spot at 0.0785 is below S2—bearish. Typical behavior: retest toward S2/S1 as resistance before continuation. That puts 0.080–0.081 as the prime short zone.

9. VWAP and mean-reversion anchors

• Anchored VWAP from 12/01 sits roughly around the mid-0.08s (~0.086). Price far below AVWAP → bears in control. Intraday VWAPs today skew above spot; expect supply to show on first reclaim attempts.

10. Pattern diagnostics and tape hints

• The multi-week base at ~0.079 cracked during increasing hourly volume—clean breakdown. Liquidity likely cleared below 0.079; after the stop run, market often grants a bounce into that broken shelf where fresh sellers re-enter. Microstructure supports a short-the-retest play.
• No convincing bullish divergence on higher timeframe; hourly may show slight momentum relief, which is ideal for tactical entry rather than reversal.

11. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Reflexive bounce to 0.080–0.081 (retest of broken floor and pivot S2) fails; price rolls over toward 0.076–0.077. Close near the lower end of the day’s range.
• Squeeze case (25%): If an hourly closes above ~0.0832–0.0837, a short squeeze can extend to 0.085–0.086 (Fib 38.2–50% + Tenkan/Kijun zone) before bears reassert. Lower probability within 24h given today’s breadth and volume pattern.
• Grind-and-bleed (15%): Minimal bounce; a slow drift from ~0.079 to ~0.077 without a clean retest. If no bounce, a breakout-continuation entry sub-0.0780 is warranted (analysis note).

12. Risk management notes (analysis only)

• Invalidation: Hourly reclaim/close above 0.0832–0.0837 suggests the breakdown failed locally; reduce or exit shorts.
• Suggested stop (analysis): ~0.0832 for a 0.0808 short provides a sensible cushion above the retest zone while staying below the next supply band.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to ATR; a ~0.0024 stop vs. ~0.0048 target → ~2:1 reward/risk.

Actionable conclusion

• The strongest confluence is a short on a rebound into 0.080–0.081, targeting 0.076. Structure (range break), momentum (MACD/RSI stack), pivots (below S2), and bands (riding lower BB) all support sell-the-rally behavior. The hourly oversold state argues for a brief bounce first, improving entry.

24-hour price path forecast

• Likely path: 0.0785 → 0.0805–0.0810 (failed retest) → 0.0770–0.0760.
• Less likely squeeze: Acceptance >0.0832 could extend to 0.085–0.086 before fading.