PNUT poised for a pivot-powered pop: Buying the dip toward a 0.0745 retest within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish mean-reversion from a locally oversold downtrend. Expecting a retest of 0.0730–0.0745 with intraday dips to 0.0700–0.0706 likely attracting buyers. Breakdown risk below 0.0686 remains.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near the daily pivot zone (≈0.0702–0.0706) targeting the R2/Fibonacci confluence in the mid-0.074s. Use a tight fail-safe below last swing lows 0.0686/0.0678.

Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher timeframe (daily): Clear primary downtrend from ~0.23 (late Sep/early Oct) and a capitulation gap on Oct 10 leading to a new regime. Since late Nov, persistent lower highs/lows from ~0.09 to ~0.07. Recent price action shows stabilization between 0.0665–0.0730 with a potential base forming.
• Intermediate swing: Swing low 0.06646 (Dec 18), bounce to 0.07279 (Dec 20), pullback to 0.06894 (Dec 21), intraday push to 0.07364 (Dec 22). This progression sets a potential double-bottom/higher-low structure vs. Dec 18.
• Intraday (hourly) on Dec 22: Sequence of higher highs/lows through 15:00–18:00 (peak 0.07364), pullback on lighter volume to ~0.0705–0.0711. Currently consolidating just under intraday VWAP with buyers defending the 0.0703–0.0706 zone.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 22 (oversold). Computation from the last 14 daily closes shows average losses materially exceeding gains, but with recent improvement; this often precedes a rebound attempt.
• Stochastic (daily): Likely rising from sub-20 lows after the Dec 18 trough, supportive of a bounce from oversold.
• MACD (12/26, daily): Negative, consistent with the broader downtrend, but histogram appears to be contracting as price holds above 0.068–0.069; suggests bearish momentum is waning.
• Intraday RSI (1h): Ranging mid-40s to 50s after the pullback from 0.0736; room to expand upward on a fresh leg.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14, daily) declining (~0.004–0.007 range recent), indicating volatility compression post-capitulation and recent bounce. Contraction after a long selloff often precedes a directional move; with oversold conditions, upside mean reversion is slightly favored.
• Bollinger Bands (20, daily): Price has hugged/breached the lower band since mid-December. Current price (~0.0711) remains near/below the lower band, a classic mean-reversion setup targeting the mid-band (≈0.079–0.081) over multiple sessions; within 24h, a tag of upper-lower quartile (≈0.074–0.075) is feasible.
• Keltner/Donchian: Donchian 20D lower ~0.06646 and upper ~0.09565. Price is in the lower quartile; Keltner lower band proximity reinforces oversold-but-basing context.

Volume, breadth, and Wyckoff lens

• Volume peaked into the Oct regime shift, then tapered. Recent days show declining volume on down legs and relatively better prints on the small rallies (e.g., Dec 22 15:00–18:00). This is indicative of supply drying up near 0.068–0.070.
• Wyckoff framing: Dec 18 looks like a selling climax (SC), Dec 19 automatic rally (AR), Dec 21 secondary test (ST) at a higher low (0.06894). Current action reads like Phase B churn; a sign of strength (SOS) would be an hourly close above 0.0736 followed by a backtest.
• OBV (qualitative): Flattening after persistent decline; minor uptick consistent with accumulation attempts.

Key levels and confluences

• Supports:
  • 0.0665–0.0678: Major swing low zone (Dec 18). Must-hold area for the base.
  • 0.0686–0.0690: Prior day low/secondary test; first defense line.
  • 0.0702–0.0706: Daily pivot/P from 12/21 data and today’s intraday demand; optimal dip-buy zone.
• Resistances:
  • 0.0725–0.0736: 23.6% Fib retrace of 0.09213→0.06646 and today’s intraday high; immediate ceiling.
  • 0.07446: Classic R2 from 12/21 pivots; aligns with a measured push above the neckline.
  • 0.0763: 38.2% Fib retrace; stretch target if momentum improves.
  • 0.0793–0.0823: 50–61.8% Fib cluster and near 20D mid-band; outside 24h base case but relevant for extensions.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 0.09213 → 0.06646)

• 23.6%: ≈0.07252 (already tested). 38.2%: ≈0.07627. 50%: ≈0.07929. 61.8%: ≈0.08232.
• Price rejection around 23.6% today suggests the next attempt will be key; a break should magnetize 0.0763.

Ichimoku snapshot (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun, overall bearish regime. However, Tenkan flattening with price attempting to reclaim it is often a first step in a basing process.
• Hourly: Price fluctuating around/just below the cloud after a test; a bullish TK cross above the cloud would confirm a short-term trend reversal toward 0.074–0.076.

DMI/ADX and trend health

• ADX elevated but rolling off, DI- > DI+ on daily but converging. On 1h, DI+ briefly led during the 0.0736 push; compression suggests possible DI+ expansion on the next break attempt.

Pattern diagnostics

• Double bottom attempt: Lows at 0.06646 (Dec 18) and higher low 0.06894 (Dec 21). Neckline near 0.0728–0.0736. Measured move: ~0.0052 → target ~0.078 on confirmation (multi-session target).
• Descending channel: Price near lower boundary; a channel midline retest would be ≈0.074–0.075 in the next 24h if buyers hold the pivot.

Pivot framework for 12/22 (derived from 12/21 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.07017, R1 ≈ 0.07170, R2 ≈ 0.07446, S1 ≈ 0.06741, S2 ≈ 0.06588.
• Today’s range: traded above R1 and below R2; closing near the pivot-to-R1 band often precedes another probe into R1/R2 the next session if P holds.

Scenarios and probabilities (24h)

• Bullish continuation from pivot (≈60%): Hold 0.0702–0.0706, break 0.0725–0.0736, tag 0.0745 (R2). Stretch to 0.0763 if momentum accelerates.
• Range chop (≈30%): 0.0698–0.0725 oscillation centered on the pivot; fade edges effective. Bias to upside while above 0.0702.
• Bearish failure (≈10%): Lose 0.0700 decisively, retest 0.0686 then 0.0674 (S1 vicinity). Would negate the immediate double-bottom thesis.

Risk management and execution plan

• Entry: Prefer limit buy in the 0.0702–0.0706 demand pocket (daily pivot, hourly demand, intraday pullback zone). This optimizes risk while preserving fill probability.
• Stop (not required to submit, but for completeness): 0.06830–0.06840 (below 12/21 low and just under the local structure), risking ~2.7–3.2% from 0.0704–0.0706 entries.
• Take-profit: First TP at 0.07446 (R2 confluence). Optional runner toward 0.0763 (38.2% Fib) if momentum expands; within 24h, 0.0745 is the higher-probability print.
• R:R from 0.0704 → 0.07446 ≈ +5.8% upside vs. ~-3% downside to the proposed stop; acceptable >1.8:1 profile in a compression/mean-reversion setup.

Confirmation and invalidation

• Bull confirmation: Hourly close above 0.0736 with rising volume; reclaim and hold R1 (0.0717) on backtest; RSI(1h) expansion >55–60.
• Invalidation: Hourly close below 0.0698 and failure to reclaim the pivot quickly; increasing sell volume into 0.0690 → monitor for 0.0674 test.

Conclusion

• The confluence of oversold oscillators (RSI ~22), proximity to/breach of lower volatility bands, a higher low vs. Dec 18, volume behavior suggesting supply absorption, and pivot math pointing to 0.0745 (R2) support a tactical long. The plan is to buy a controlled dip near 0.0703–0.0705 and exit into the 0.0744–0.0746 zone within the next 24 hours, provided the 0.0702 pivot holds.