Peanut the Squirrel Price Analysis Powered by AI

Holiday Fade Setup: PNUT’s Descending Triangle Targets 0.0686 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

Regime: PNUT remains in a persistent downtrend on the daily timeframe after the October rug/washout, with successive lower highs and lower lows into late December. Today’s price is 0.07079, sitting well below the 20-day SMA (~0.0786) and far below the 26-period Ichimoku Kijun (~0.085), indicating the primary trend is still bearish.
Near-term: Over the last 24 hours the tape formed a tight, low-liquidity holiday range (approx 0.0698–0.0715) with supply capping rallies near 0.0715–0.0720. Microstructure suggests a fade back toward 0.0690–0.0686 over the next session unless buyers reclaim and hold above ~0.0718–0.0722.
Call: Bias is Sell (short). Optimal entry around 0.07110 (near VWAP/61.8% micro retrace/supply shelf). Base-case target 0.06860 within 24 hours.

Long/medium trend (Daily):
- From late September ~0.20 to mid-October crash and persistent downtrend into December. Failed bounces: 0.124–0.13 area in early Nov, then lower highs in late Nov/early Dec (0.092–0.093 zone rejected Dec 7–10).
- Recent swing structure (Dec): lower high at 0.07279 (Dec 20) after low 0.06779 (Dec 18). Yesterday/today prints show inability to push above 0.0715–0.0720 intraday despite attempts.
- 20D SMA ≈ 0.0786; price is ~10% below it. 50D SMA (by inspection of prior series) trends down well above 0.09; 9/21 EMA stack is bearish (price ≲ 9-EMA, 9-EMA ≪ 21-EMA), consistent with a downtrend.
Short-term (Hourly from h-series):
- Range developed 0.0700–0.0715. A single expansion candle at 16:00 UTC to 0.07150 was sold aggressively; next hour closed 0.07058 on meaningful volume, signaling overhead supply.
- Into the 21:58 print, price sits ~0.07079, i.e., mid-to-upper range, with no follow-through above 0.0710–0.0712.
Market structure tells: A descending triangle is forming against a flat base 0.0686–0.0693 with lower swing highs 0.0728 → 0.0715 → 0.0710s. This typically resolves lower in the direction of the prevailing trend.

RSI(14) Daily (approx): Low-to-mid 30s to high 30s; momentum weak but not deeply oversold. Price remains below the 20-day mean, reducing the likelihood of a trend reversal without a catalyst.
RSI(14) Hourly: Mid-50s and failing to sustain above 60 on pushes; that’s characteristic of bear-market rallies on intraday frames.
MACD Daily: Below zero with a shallow, slightly improving histogram (bearish but loss of downside impulse). Price unable to reclaim signal lines suggests rallies still for selling.
Stochastics (Daily, qualitative): cycling up from oversold but stalling below midline; room exists both ways, but context favors rallies being sold.
ROC: Negative on daily; flat-to-mildly positive intraday, consistent with a weak countertrend bounce inside a downtrend.

ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~0.0035–0.0048. A 24h move from 0.071 to 0.0686 (≈0.0024) sits well within 1x ATR, making the target credible.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~0.0786; lower band estimated near ~0.064–0.066. Price is beneath mid-band and hovering in the lower half of the envelope, not near an extreme squeeze; bandwidth suggests additional downside drift is plausible before any mean reversion.

Daily volumes have compressed materially from the October event; late Nov–Dec volumes are moderate-to-light, typical of a controlled bleed. The 16:00–17:00 UTC hourly bars today carried the session’s heaviest volume and were sold into, validating the 0.0715–0.0720 supply zone.
OBV (qualitative): Trending down across November–December with no decisive positive divergence. Accumulation/Distribution characteristics remain distributive.

Immediate resistance: 0.0715–0.0720 (intraday sellers), then 0.0728 (Dec 20 close/high), 0.0740–0.0748, and the 20D SMA ~0.0786.
Immediate support: 0.0700–0.0698 (intraday shelf), 0.0693–0.0691 (pivot cluster), 0.0686 (recent session low cluster), then 0.06779 (Dec 18 swing low). A break under 0.0686 likely tests 0.0678/0.0670 quickly given thin holiday order books.

From the Dec 10 local high 0.09213 to the Dec 18 low 0.06779:
- 38.2% = ~0.0771; 50% = ~0.0800; 61.8% = ~0.0829. The post-low bounce failed to even reach 38.2% (capped at 0.07279), a sign of weak dip demand.
Micro leg from 0.07279 (Dec 20) to 0.06779 (Dec 18) has a 61.8% retrace around ~0.0709, which coincides with current price and repeated intraday rejection — a technically clean short entry area.

Tenkan (9) ~ (HH+LL)/2 over 9 days: ≈ (0.07477 + 0.06646)/2 = ~0.07062; price is marginally above/near Tenkan.
Kijun (26) ~ (HH+LL)/2 ≈ (0.10343 + 0.06646)/2 ≈ 0.08495; price far below Kijun.
Cloud: Price is well below the Kumo; Chikou span below price and cloud. Net: bearish regime. Trading below a falling Kijun signals rallies are likely sold near Tenkan/Kijun levels.

9-EMA ≈ 0.0709; 21-EMA ≈ mid-0.074s; 50-EMA/SMA ≈ low 0.09s. The bearish EMA stack (price ≤ 9-EMA ≪ 21-EMA ≪ 50-EMA) confirms trend persistence. Touches of the 9-EMA within a dominant downtrend are typically shorting opportunities.

Session VWAP (approx) clusters near 0.0706–0.0708 given the heaviest prints at 16:00–17:00 and subsequent trade. Price is oscillating around VWAP but failing to extend above the 0.0715 supply shelf; mean reversion from slightly above VWAP back to the lower bound of the day’s value area favors a short fade.

Descending triangle: Series of lower highs compressing against a horizontal base 0.0686–0.0693. In a downtrend, break probability skews to the downside.
Failed expansion: The only impulse up today (to 0.0715) was swiftly rejected with heavier volume, a classic tell of supply dominance.
Micro bear flag: The post-selloff drift up from ~0.0691 to ~0.0709 on declining momentum resembles a flag that often resolves lower.

Base case (≈60%): Range-fade then drift lower to 0.0691–0.0686. Liquidity pockets below 0.069 could quick-tap 0.0686, potentially 0.0682 in a wick.
Neutral/range case (≈25%): Hold 0.0698–0.0718, with repeated sells near 0.0715–0.0720 and bids near 0.0692–0.0690.
Upside squeeze (≈15%): If 0.0718–0.0722 is reclaimed and held on rising volume, price could tag 0.0728–0.0736. Sustained strength above 0.0740 would be needed to challenge 0.0786 (20D SMA), which is a low-probability outcome absent a catalyst.

Holiday liquidity can exacerbate wicks; execution via limit orders is preferable. While broader trend is down, thin books can momentarily lift price; hence the best short entries are near supply (0.0711–0.0718) rather than mid-range.
Not financial advice. Manage risk; consider a personal stop above the 0.0722–0.0728 band if you use a protective stop.

Conclusion

Multiple independent tools (trend MAs, RSI/MACD, Ichimoku, Fibonacci confluence, VWAP, pattern analysis) align bearishly. The micro 61.8% retracement and intraday supply at ~0.0711–0.0718 provide a technically attractive short entry, with a high-probability magnet at 0.0691–0.0686 over the next 24 hours.

Trade plan (core parameters)