POPCAT Coils For A Weekend Breakout: Eyeing 0.37 On Ascending Triangle And Volume Thrust

Overview and context

• Instrument: Popcat (SOL) (POPCAT)
• Timestamp (data current): 2025-08-09 21:00 UTC
• Current price: 0.346584
• Timeframes analyzed: Daily (May–Aug), 4H/1H (Aug 8–9)
• Objective: Predict next 24h move, identify optimal entry and exit, choose Buy/Sell

Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Higher-timeframe (Daily) structure: From mid-May highs (~0.64), price trended down into late June (~0.26–0.30), then rallied into late July (peak ~0.48 on Jul 22), followed by another downswing into early August (~0.285–0.315). The last 7–10 daily candles show a basing and early-stage recovery. Structure since Aug 1: higher low at 0.2858 (Aug 2), subsequent higher closing highs (0.3136 on Aug 4, 0.3270 on Aug 7, now 0.3466 intraday), suggesting an emerging short-term uptrend inside a broader neutral-to-down trend.
• Intraday (1H) structure: Clear sequence of higher lows from 0.3206 (Aug 9 03:00) → 0.334–0.335 → 0.338–0.342. Price pressed and closed on session high at 0.34764 at 20:00, signaling a bullish continuation attempt.

Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate supports: 0.342–0.343 (intraday shelf/volume pivot), 0.338–0.339 (hourly congestion), 0.333–0.335 (R1 from prior day pivot, now support), 0.327 (Aug 7 close/pivot), 0.320–0.321 (intraday swing low).
• Immediate resistances: 0.3475–0.350 (today’s high/round-number friction), 0.361–0.364 (38.2% retracement of 0.48375 → 0.28579 daily leg and classic R2/R3 pivot confluence), 0.368–0.377 (mid-July supply zone), 0.383–0.391 (late-July supply cluster).

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 (approx): ~0.3530 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 0.3466 is just below SMA20; slope flattening after a decline, pointing to a mean-reversion attempt toward/through the 20SMA.
• Daily SMA50 (directional context): Likely above current (~0.37–0.38). Price below SMA50 but approaching the 20SMA from beneath: short-term bullish within a medium-term corrective regime.
• 1H EMAs (qualitative): Price reclaimed and is holding above short EMAs (e.g., EMA8/EMA21 proxies), consistent with intraday trend continuation.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~42 on Aug 7; with the subsequent advance to 0.3466, RSI likely moved into mid-to-high 40s or low 50s. Interpretation: Momentum has turned up from bearish but is not overbought—room to run.
• 1H RSI: Likely 55–65 after today’s push, supportive of continuation; no obvious bearish divergence between the recent hourly swing highs.
• Daily MACD: Histogram likely reduced its negative depth and is curling toward the zero line, with a potential bull cross developing—consistent with early trend reversal dynamics.

Volatility measures

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~0.030–0.035. A one-day expected move from 0.3466 implies a plausible range of roughly 0.312–0.382, giving upside capacity through 0.36 and potentially to 0.37+ on momentum continuation.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) on Daily: Mid-band (SMA20) ~0.353; lower band recently tagged in early Aug; price now attacking the mid-band from below (typical mean-reversion-to-trend transition). A clean reclaim of the mid-band often targets upper-band/mid-July supply in subsequent sessions.

Ichimoku lens

• Daily: Price likely below Kijun (~0.37) but above/retesting Tenkan (~0.34). This configuration typically implies short-term bullish bias with medium-term resistance ahead (Kijun/cloud). Thin forward Cloud after a prolonged decline often precedes a test of the Cloud underside.
• 1H: Price has likely broken/cleared the Cloud with Tenkan > Kijun and Span A > Span B, supporting the short-term bullish continuation until a fresh rotation below Kijun.

Fibonacci frameworks

• Swing A (Jul 22 high 0.48375) to Swing B (Aug 2 low 0.28579):
  • 38.2% retrace: ~0.3614
  • 50% retrace: ~0.3848
  • 61.8% retrace: ~0.4077 Current price is below the 38.2% level, leaving natural upside to 0.361–0.364 as first fib resistance and a high-probability magnet if momentum persists.
• Intraday swing (Aug 9 03:00 low 0.3206 to 20:00 high 0.3476):
  • 23.6% pullback: ~0.3414
  • 38.2% pullback: ~0.3373
  • 61.8% pullback: ~0.3309 With trend strength high into the close, a shallow pullback toward ~0.341–0.343 is a reasonable dip-buy zone; deeper pullback limits are 0.337 and 0.331 if volatility spikes.

Classical chart patterns and price action

• Ascending triangle setup (1H): Flat/consistent overhead near 0.347–0.350 and rising intraday lows from 0.321 → 0.334 → 0.338+ implies an ascending triangle. Measured move target ≈ height (0.347–0.321 = ~0.026) projected from breakout zone: ~0.347 + 0.026 = ~0.373. This aligns neatly with daily supply/resistance (0.372–0.377), providing a logical take-profit zone.
• Candlestick context: Bullish hourly closes near highs into 20:00 hour, a hallmark of demand into the weekend close. No clear exhaustion wick at the highs yet.

Volume and participation

• Hourly volume expansion on upswings (notably 05:00, 08:00–10:00, and 20:00 UTC) indicates demand stepping in at higher prices, a positive confirmation of the ascending triangle.
• Daily volume profile from late July into early August shows capitulation, then stabilizing and now re-acceleration—consistent with early accumulation/buildup into a relief rally.

Pivot points (Classic, derived from Aug 7 daily H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.3183; R1 ≈ 0.3362; R2 ≈ 0.3454; R3 ≈ 0.3633.
• Price currently above R2 and pushing toward R3; markets often test R3 in trending sessions—congruent with the 0.361–0.364 cluster.

Wyckoff/flow interpretation

• After a selling climax (early Aug), secondary test formed higher low; now signs of strength (SOS) over intraday resistance with increased volume. This typically leads to a mark-up phase toward prior supply (0.36–0.38) before a more meaningful reaction.

Keltner channels and mean reversion

• Intraday price riding the upper Keltner band indicates strong short-term trend; such conditions favor buying shallow pullbacks rather than chasing late highs.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Key invalidation zone for the short-term bullish view: sustained break below 0.333–0.335 (former R1/now S) and especially below 0.327 (Aug 7 pivot). A loss of 0.333 would likely open a path back to 0.320–0.321 and potentially the 0.313–0.315 shelf.
• Weekend liquidity can induce whipsaws; plan entries on pullbacks into defined demand zones rather than chasing.

24-hour outlook and scenario analysis

• Base case (60%): Shallow dip to 0.341–0.343 followed by a push to test 0.361–0.364 (fib 38.2%/R3), with extension risk toward 0.370–0.373 (ascending triangle measured move). Likely close in the 0.358–0.370 band.
• Alt (25%): Quick breakout above 0.350 without a dip, tags 0.361–0.364 early, stalls and ranges 0.352–0.366 rest of day.
• Risk case (15%): Failure at 0.350, retrace to 0.337–0.338 or even 0.333 sweep, then base again; bullish thesis remains intact above 0.327.

Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Buy dips in an emerging intraday uptrend aiming for the 0.361–0.373 band within 24h.
• Optimal entry: 0.341–0.343 (23.6–30% pullback of today’s intraday swing and intraday shelf). If missed, secondary pullback 0.338 and last-resort high-conviction defense near 0.333.
• Take-profit objective: Scale/target 0.371–0.373 (triangle measured move and confluence with mid-July supply), conservative TP1 at 0.361–0.364.
• Note: While not required, prudent risk management would place a protective stop under 0.333 (structural break), or tighter under 0.337 depending on execution.

Conclusion and decision

• Multiple tools (market structure, fibs, pivots, intraday volume, RSI/MACD turns, Bollinger mid-band reclaim attempt, and an ascending triangle) align for a short-term bullish continuation into 0.361–0.373. Therefore, favor a Buy on a pullback rather than a market chase.

Prediction summary (next 24h)

• Expected path: 0.341–0.343 dip → breakout through 0.350 → test 0.361–0.364; extension risk to 0.371–0.373.
• Expected range: 0.338–0.372 (tail risk to 0.333 on volatility flush).