POPCAT coiling under 0.244: poised for a push toward 0.25–0.253 within 24h

Executive summary

• Context: POPCAT has been in a multi-month downtrend since late July, but the last 3 sessions show a constructive basing and early trend reversal attempt. Current price = 0.24257. Price is pressing the 0.243–0.245 supply shelf and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Sep 13 → Sep 25 swing.
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish. Base case is a grind higher with a breakout attempt above 0.244–0.245, targeting 0.248–0.252. Expect a small pullback first to ~0.240–0.241 before continuation.
• Probability map (24h): Up-move 55–60%, Range 25–30%, Down-move 15–20%.

Multi-timeframe price structure and key levels

• Daily structure: Prolonged downtrend from Jul 22 high (0.4838) to Sep 25 low (0.2087). Since Sep 30–Oct 1 the market printed higher closes and is now testing the first meaningful resistance shelf (0.242–0.245).
• Hourly structure (Oct 3): Series of higher lows: 0.2329 → 0.2340 → 0.2398. Micro-resistance at 0.2442 (intraday high). This builds an ascending triangle just under resistance.
• Immediate supports: 0.2398 (Oct 2 close/VWAP band), 0.236–0.237 (hourly congestion), 0.233–0.234 (hourly liquidity sweep and volume spike).
• Immediate resistances: 0.244–0.245 (breakout trigger), 0.248–0.250 (psychological and prior daily pivot), 0.253–0.254 (50% retracement from Sep 13 high → Sep 25 low), 0.264 (61.8% Fib and Ichimoku/Kijun vicinity).

Moving averages (trend lenses)

• SMA(10) ≈ 0.2240 (rising). Price above SMA10 → short-term bullish.
• SMA(20) ≈ 0.2443 (flat/down). Price slightly below SMA20 → medium-term downtrend still capping; a close above 0.244–0.245 would flip short-term momentum decisively.
• 9-period average (approx EMA/SMA) ≈ 0.224–0.229, price above → positive micro-momentum.
• SMA(50): Likely well above spot (upper 0.27–0.30 region), reflecting the broader bearish regime; upside moves will meet supply on approaches to the high 0.26–0.28 band.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (daily) ≈ 40–45, rising from sub-40: recovery from bearish momentum, but not overbought → room to extend.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) (daily) ≈ 57, curling up from midzone → constructive, early-cycle momentum.
• Williams %R (14) ≈ -43 → neutral-to-bullish bias (no overbought).
• MACD (daily) qualitative: Histogram likely crossed up toward zero with price reclaiming short MAs; signal-line cross pending. On an hourly basis, momentum has flipped positive after the 17:00 dip was absorbed.
• CCI(20) and MFI(14) qualitative: Both likely turning up with rising closes and modest volume expansion; neither at extremes.
• ADX (daily) qualitative: Low-teens to high-teens and rising → trend strength rebuilding from a non-trending state; break above 0.245 could accelerate ADX higher.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (daily) ≈ 0.0144 → expected 24h true range ~1.4¢. This frames a reasonable 24h high-side target of 0.250–0.255 if resistance breaks, and downside test to ~0.236–0.238 on pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ SMA20 ≈ 0.2443; current price just below mid-band. A daily close above the mid-band is a classical buy confirmation, targeting the upper band over the next sessions (upper band estimated high-0.28s; not a 24h expectation but shows headroom).
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± ATR): Price nearing upper channel on intraday pushes; a clean hourly close above 0.245 would show expansion outside the Keltner, often preceding short squeezes.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) likely ~0.232–0.235; price above → near-term bullish.
• Kijun (26-period midpoint) estimated ~0.26–0.27; price below → medium-term downtrend still active.
• Cloud: Price likely below cloud; first resistance zone aligns with 0.26–0.27. For the next 24h, the relevant takeaway is that a move into 0.25+ is a step toward testing the Kijun/Cloud confluence later.

Fibonacci mapping

• Sep 13 high (0.29831) → Sep 25 low (0.20868):
  • 23.6% = 0.2298 (reclaimed)
  • 38.2% = 0.2429 (current test)
  • 50% = 0.2535 (near 24h upside objective)
  • 61.8% = 0.2640 (stretch target beyond 24h)
• Current action is consistent with a 23.6% reclaim → 38.2% test, with momentum to probe the 50% level on breakout.

Pattern recognition and candles

• Rounded base / early accumulation from Sep 26–Oct 1, followed by a Sign of Strength (SOS) day on Oct 2 and continuation on Oct 3.
• Ascending triangle on the hourly under 0.244–0.245, with higher lows and repeated taps of resistance; this pattern favors an upside resolution.
• Intraday 17:00 drop to ~0.234 on notable volume was absorbed and reclaimed quickly → healthy dip-buying behavior and liquidity sweep below prior intraday lows.

Volume and flow

• Daily volume: Oct 1–3 shows mild expansion on green days (30–35M+), supportive of the nascent up leg; far below July mania (normal for a base-building phase).
• Hourly: Volume spikes align with dips being bought (17:00), then steady flows on the rebound to 0.242–0.243.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Turning up from late-Sep lows, consistent with accumulation.

VWAPs and profiles

• Intraday/rolling VWAP indicates reclaim of ~0.238–0.240 area; price is holding above, implying buyers in control while above 0.239–0.240.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative) suggests a developing node around 0.236–0.241; acceptance above this node increases the odds of a push to the lighter-volume zone near 0.248–0.252.

Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Spring (Sep 25), secondary test (Sep 30–Oct 1), Sign of Strength (Oct 2), potential LPS pullback into 0.239–0.241 before continuation.
• Elliott (micro): A-impulse off the lows, B-pullback completed on the 17:00 dip, now in a C/3-wave targeting 0.250–0.253; invalidation below 0.233.

Risk management, invalidation, and scenarios (24h)

• Bullish continuation (55–60%): Brief pullback toward 0.240–0.241 (LPS) then breakout above 0.244–0.245, tagging 0.248–0.252. If momentum accelerates, wicks to ~0.255 possible.
• Range (25–30%): Ping-pong between 0.239 and 0.244; a slow coil that defers breakout to the following session.
• Bearish failure (15–20%): Loss of 0.239 support opens a test of 0.236, with tail risk to 0.233. This would weaken the ascending triangle, delaying upside resolution.
• Invalidation for the long idea: A sustained hourly close below 0.233–0.234 (the liquidity sweep low) would negate the immediate bullish setup and likely revert to 0.228–0.230.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy dips into support ahead of a 0.244–0.245 breakout attempt.
• Entry: 0.2408 limit to capture the anticipated LPS pullback; alternate momentum add if 0.2446 breaks/holds (not required for this single-order plan, but noted).
• Target: 0.2515–0.2535 aligns with 50% Fib and local supply; set TP at 0.2518 for realistic fills inside the target zone.
• Protective stop (noted for risk control): 0.2328 (below the 17:00 sweep) → risk ≈ 0.0080 vs reward ≈ 0.0110 → R:R ≈ 1.4. A tighter tactical stop at 0.2346 gives R:R ≈ 1.7 but increases stop-out risk.

Bottom line

• Evidence across multiple tools (higher lows, hourly ascending triangle, Fib reclaim, improving momentum, supportive volume) favors a controlled drift higher over the next 24 hours, with 0.248–0.252 as the primary objective. A dip to ~0.240 is expected and preferred for entry.

Note: This is a market view based on price/volume only and is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile; size positions appropriately and use stops.