Dead-Cat Drift: Shorting POPCAT’s 50% Bounce under Heavy Supply

Executive summary

• POPCAT suffered a structural breakdown on 2025-10-10, flash-crashing to 0.0796 and closing the day at 0.1504. Since then, price has consolidated in a tight, heavy range between ~0.144–0.160 with repeated rejections near ~0.156–0.160. The broader daily trend has been down since late July. Volume on the crash was capitulatory; the subsequent bounce is on waning volume, consistent with a weak dead-cat retrace.
• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish to neutral with risk of a minor bounce first. Base case is a lower high into 0.155–0.160 followed by a breakdown to 0.130–0.120. Invalidation if 0.161–0.166 is reclaimed with acceptance.

Market structure and trend

• Daily structure (July–Oct): Lower highs from ~0.48 (late July) → ~0.24 (early Oct) culminating in a disorderly break of the 0.21–0.24 value area on 10/10. The prior value area low (VAL) ~0.208 was lost; today’s trading is well below any recent daily moving averages. Trend is decisively down on daily.
• Intraday structure (10/10–10/11, hourly): Post-crash consolidation. Multiple lower highs at 0.158–0.160; higher-timeframe supply likely sits 0.156–0.166. Lows marginally probing 0.1439–0.1448 with shallow bounces -> descending triangle/weak bear flag.

Volume and volatility diagnostics

• Capitulation signature: 10/10 daily volume ~107.6M vs prior 20–50M typical; 10/11 cumulative intraday volume remains elevated but lower than the crash day. This pattern (spike on down-leg, fade on bounce) supports a continuation downward after relief completes.
• ATR expansion: Post-crash daily true range expanded massively; hourly ATR is still elevated but compressing, indicating energy is reloading. Historically, vol compression after a crash within a downtrend often resolves in the direction of the prevailing trend (down).
• Volume profile (last week): Highest volume nodes around 0.150–0.156 (current POC zone), with a low-volume pocket below ~0.140 down into ~0.125. Acceptance back under ~0.144 likely accelerates to that LVN pocket.

Support and resistance (confluent levels)

• Resistance: 0.156–0.160 (50% retrace of the 0.2337→0.0796 crash; repeated intraday failures), 0.166–0.173 (above, 61.8% retrace and prior micro supply), then 0.180–0.185 (breakout pivot if squeeze).
• Support: 0.1435–0.1450 (current base), 0.138 (minor), 0.130 (round number and measured move), 0.120 (fib extension target/previous auction shelf), then 0.100–0.108 (deeper extension/psych).

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Likely sub-30 post-crash; intraday RSI bounced to mid-40s then stalled, matching failure under 0.160. This is classic dead-cat behavior: oversold → mean reversion → stall under resistance.
• RSI (hourly): Small bullish divergence into 19:00–20:00 (price lower low 0.1439 vs 0.1480 with flatter momentum) explains the tiny bounce; but divergence is weak and has not regained key momentum thresholds (>55). Bearish momentum regime persists.
• MACD (daily): After a prolonged decline, the histogram likely deeply negative; the bounce is not yet enough to curl the signal up. On hourly, histogram reduced negativity during the bounce but is rolling over near zero, consistent with lower-high failure risk.

Moving averages

• Daily EMA20 ≈ 0.24–0.25 (est.), EMA50 ≈ 0.29–0.31 (est.). Price at 0.145 is far below both, with bearish alignment (EMA20 < EMA50). Any rallies toward 0.20–0.24 are sells until proven otherwise.
• Hourly EMAs: Price rides below a declining 50/100-hour EMA cluster centered ~0.155–0.158; repeated rejections there mark it as the tactical short zone.

Bollinger Bands and mean reversion

• Daily BB: Massive expansion on 10/10; price now hugging the lower half of the envelope. Mean reversion bounce already tagged mid-band equivalents on intraday but failed at ~0.160. Given trend, expect tag of lower band again in next session if 0.145 breaks.
• Hourly BB: Post-crash compression within 0.145–0.159. Compression in a downtrend often resolves with another down-leg.

Fibonacci mapping of the crash leg (pre-crash pivot ~0.2337 to low 0.0796)

• 38.2%: ~0.1385; 50%: ~0.1567; 61.8%: ~0.173. Price is oscillating between 38.2% and 50%, failing repeatedly at 50% (0.156–0.157). Rejection at the 50% retracement favors continuation to 38.2% (0.138) and then extension targets. Measured extensions from the bounce project ~0.125 and ~0.107 as next magnets if breakdown accelerates.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is well below the cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; Senkou Span A < Span B with a thick bearish cloud overhead. Chikou span below price and cloud. Full bearish stack, implying rallies into 0.156–0.166 are likely rejected on first touch.

Parabolic SAR and trend-following

• PSAR dots remain above price post-crash on daily and have not flipped on intraday closes; trend-followers remain short-bias until a close above ~0.160–0.165 flips short-term signals.

Anchored VWAP

• AVWAP anchored to the crash day 10/10 sits above current price (est. ~0.158–0.162 depending on anchor), acting as dynamic resistance. Multiple intraday touches/rejections support using AVWAP vicinity as a tactical short entry.

Candles and pattern diagnostics

• 10/10 daily printed a long lower shadow off 0.0796, but follow-through buying failed to reclaim broken support at 0.208/0.22. 10/11 intraday is a series of small-bodied candles under resistance—a weak consolidation. The sequence resembles a bear flag/descending triangle with base ~0.145.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• The 0.2337→0.0796 drop is an impulsive wave (Wave 3 style). The subsequent 0.0796→0.1606 bounce is a sharp Wave 4 retrace near the 0.5 level. A terminal Wave 5 down toward 0.120–0.108 is plausible before a larger-degree corrective rally.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Minor bounce into 0.155–0.160, rejection, then breakdown below 0.145 toward 0.135–0.130. Late-session extension to ~0.120 if liquidity thin.
• Bullish alt (25%): Clean reclaim and hour close above 0.161–0.166 (above 50% retrace and AVWAP), squeeze toward 0.173 (61.8% fib) where sellers likely reload. Trend not reversed unless daily acceptance over ~0.185–0.195.
• Bearish acceleration (20%): No bounce; swift loss of 0.144, vacuum through LVN to 0.125–0.120 in a single impulse.

Risk management and trade plan

• Thesis: Short rallies into 0.156–0.160 where multi-indicator confluence resides (50% fib, hourly EMA cluster, anchored VWAP). Target the LVN/extension area 0.120.
• Invalidation: Hourly acceptance above 0.166 or a daily close above 0.173 would negate the immediate short setup and signal a deeper retrace.
• Stop (for planning, not part of the requested fields): ~0.167–0.169 above supply. R:R from 0.156 entry to 0.120 TP is ~2.3:1; to 0.130 is ~1.5:1.

Key tells to monitor intraday

• Reaction at 0.155–0.160 on any bounce (watch rejection volume and wick length).
• Loss of 0.144 with expanding volume (bearish continuation confirmation).
• If price reclaims 0.161–0.166 and holds above anchored VWAP, stand aside; a squeeze to 0.173 is likely.

Bottom line

• The confluence of downtrend structure, weak retracement into the 50% level, resistance-laden EMA/AVWAP cluster, compressing volatility under supply, and volume profile vacuum below 0.144 favors a Sell-the-bounce approach targeting 0.120 over the next 24 hours, with squeeze risk limited to 0.166–0.173.