POPCAT Neckline Reclaim: Momentum Aims for 0.171 in the Next 24 Hours

Summary of where we are now

• Instrument: Popcat (SOL) (POPCAT)
• Current price (last trade): 0.16338298
• Context: After a capitulation low on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~0.0796) and a violent reset, price has been basing in a 0.146–0.165 range. Today’s session shows a strong, high-volume push toward the range highs with a tentative break/retest of the 0.160–0.165 supply zone.

Step-by-step analysis (multi-tool, multi-timeframe)

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily structure: Clear downtrend from August highs (~0.35) into late September (~0.21), followed by a capitulation on 10-10 to a 0.0796 intraday low and recovery. Since 10-11, higher lows have developed around 0.142–0.151 with repeated rejections near 0.164–0.167. This forms a base/accumulation with a visible neckline ~0.164–0.165.
• Intraday (1h) structure: A sequence of higher lows and higher highs today, from ~0.1476 (03:00) to ~0.1641 (20:00). The breakout leg (17:00–20:00) printed strong range expansion candles with rising volume, indicating an impulsive move rather than a drift.
• Key zones:
  • Demand: 0.149–0.152 (prior cluster of closes/lows), 0.155–0.156 (10-24/10-27 closes), 0.160–0.161 (fresh breakout flip zone)
  • Supply: 0.164–0.167 (neckline pivot), 0.171–0.176 (prior swing highs: 0.1712 / 0.1749 / 0.1768)
• Candles: Today is printing a large bullish day versus 10-28’s small-bodied candle; if the day closes above ~0.160, that’s a decisive bullish continuation signal from the base.

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily MAs: 5D and 10D moving averages are curling up and sit around ~0.155–0.157. Price is above both, a short-term bullish condition. The 20D basis is near ~0.155 as well. Longer MAs (50D ~0.20–0.25; 200D higher) still slope down—macro trend remains down, but the short-term impulse is up.
• 4h/1h EMAs: Price is trading above intraday 20/50/200 EMAs, and today we likely have a 1h “golden cross” (50EMA > 200EMA). This intraday alignment supports momentum continuation and buy-the-dip conditions into rising EMAs.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimate mid-to-high 50s, rising from low 40s after the base. This is a constructive momentum shift without daily overbought risk.
• 1h RSI(14): Likely ~68–72 after the surge. Elevated but not extreme; can “ride” overbought in trends. Expect shallow pullbacks toward 1h 20EMA before continuation.
• MACD:
  • 1h MACD line > signal with widening histogram—classic momentum expansion.
  • 4h MACD likely crossed up recently, consistent with a developing upswing.
• Stochastics (1h): In/near overbought; a short pause/pullback is plausible before the next leg.

4. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14): Post-crash, realized ranges suggest ~0.009–0.012/day (6–8% on current price). A 24h move from 0.163 implies a reasonable band to ~0.154–0.172.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20, 2): Basis near ~0.155; upper band ~0.171; lower ~0.139. Price is approaching the upper band but not breaching hard—room remains to tag 0.171–0.172.
• Keltner Channels (1h/4h): Price riding or just above the upper KC, consistent with momentum. Expect either consolidation along the upper channel or a brief mean-revert to the midline before continuation.

5. Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume: The 18:00 hour printed a conspicuously high volume up candle (7.58M) followed by continued demand—this is breakout-type character. Daily turnover over the last three sessions is healthy and rising versus the immediately preceding week.
• OBV: Rising since 10-22, confirming accumulation during the base and supporting the upside break attempt.
• VWAP (today/intraday): Price is above session VWAP and staying there after the breakout—bullish bias while VWAP holds below price.

6. Pattern work: IHS/Cup-and-handle/Fibonacci

• Inverse Head-and-Shoulders (IHS): Left shoulder ~0.142–0.149 (10-11), head ~0.136 (10-17), right shoulder ~0.149–0.151 (10-28). Neckline ~0.164–0.165. Measured move = neckline (0.164) − head (0.136) ≈ 0.028; Target ≈ 0.192 on a confirmed daily close > neckline with follow-through. The first objective on a fresh breakout is to retest 0.168–0.171 and prior high 0.1768.
• Cup-and-Handle anatomy: Cup rim near 0.168–0.171, handle pullback to ~0.149–0.156, with a breakout pivot ~0.161–0.164. Today’s behavior is characteristic of the post-handle breakout.
• Fibonacci retracements (from 10-10 low 0.0796 to 10-13 high 0.1768):
  • 0.618 ≈ 0.1409 (held as support on multiple occasions)
  • 0.786 ≈ 0.1552 (recent pullbacks respected/near this level)
  • Current price above 0.786 and advancing toward prior highs—a bullish regime for a retest of 0.171–0.177.
• Fibonacci extensions (from the handle low to pivot): A conservative 1.0x measured move projects ~0.172–0.174, consistent with R3/past highs.

7. Pivot levels (Classic, from 10-28 H/L/C ≈ 0.1609/0.1476/0.1497)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.1527
• R1 ≈ 0.1579 (taken)
• R2 ≈ 0.1660 (within reach/being tested)
• R3 ≈ 0.1712 (aligns with 10-12 swing high). Today’s push is traversing R1→R2; an extension to R3 in 24h is plausible if the breakout holds.

8. Market profile/volume nodes (visual inference)

• High-volume nodes: 0.149–0.156 (accepted value area from the base).
• Low-volume gap: 0.160–0.166 (thin zone where price can move quickly once through). If price holds above ~0.160–0.161 on a retest, a swift move to 0.168–0.171 is favored.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely above Tenkan (~0.157) but below a still-declining Kijun/Cloud from the pre-crash regime—indicating early trend repair.
• 1h/4h: Price above conversion/base lines and above a thin cloud, suggesting momentum with support on pullbacks to the Tenkan/20EMA area (~0.160–0.161).

10. Elliott Wave (tactical count, 1h)

• Wave 1: 0.1476 → 0.1529; Wave 2: pullback; Wave 3: 0.150 → 0.164 impulse (17:00–20:00 surge); Expect Wave 4 shallow pullback to ~0.160–0.161, then Wave 5 to ~0.168–0.172. This dovetails with pivots and prior highs.

11. Statistical/mean-reversion overlay

• Price stretched above 1h moving averages and upper bands; near-term odds favor a modest recoil toward 0.160–0.161 before continuation. Given ATR and band positions, 0.171–0.172 is a reasonable 24h upside boundary; 0.155–0.157 is the likely downside limit if momentum falters.

12. 24-hour path probabilities (subjective, based on confluence)

• Base case (≈60%): Retest 0.160–0.161, then continuation to 0.168–0.172, with intraday pauses near 0.166.
• Alternative (≈30%): Sideways consolidation 0.158–0.164 as the market digests the breakout before a later push.
• Adverse (≈10%): Failed breakout—slip back inside the value area to 0.155–0.156. A daily close below ~0.155 would negate the immediate bullish thesis and push us back into base-building.

Trade plan logic and execution

• Bias: Bullish (long) based on breakout structure, volume confirmation, intraday trend alignment, and proximity to—but not yet rejection from—R2/R3 targets.
• Optimal entry: Look to buy a pullback into the breakout flip zone 0.1608–0.1618 (near 1h 20EMA, prior micro-supply now demand, and below the current price for better R:R). If momentum persists without pullback, a secondary momentum entry on strength through 0.1650–0.1655 is acceptable but carries thinner R:R into 0.171–0.172.
• Initial take-profit (24h horizon): 0.1710 (in front of R3 0.1712 and prior swing high 0.1712), improving fill odds while respecting ATR limits.
• Risk management (not requested but critical): A logical protective stop sits below 0.1550–0.1555 (near the 0.786 Fib ~0.1552 and below the 10-27 close 0.1565). That keeps the trade valid as long as price holds the higher-low structure. This yields an approximate R:R of ~1.1–1.5 depending on fill, suitable for a tactical swing.

Why Buy vs. Sell now?

• Selling into a fresh, high-volume reclaim of the range highs fights momentum, with nearby resistance levels thin until 0.171–0.176. Meanwhile, well-defined downside invalidation exists near 0.155–0.156, providing manageable risk for longs. Multiple tools (OBV uptrend, intraday MA alignment, breakout over neckline/pivot, measured move confluence) favor upside continuation.

Price prediction for the next 24 hours

• Expectation: A brief dip/retest toward 0.160–0.161 followed by an advance to 0.168–0.171. Spike overshoots to 0.173 can occur if momentum accelerates, but 0.1710 is the high-probability completion level within 24h.

Note: This plan is for informational/educational purposes only. Crypto assets are highly volatile; consider your risk tolerance and position sizing.