Popcat Breakdown: Fading the Bounce Toward 0.126 for a Slide to 0.112

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish continuation. Prefer selling bounces (“fade the rip”).
• Likely path: After a weak relief bounce toward 0.126–0.128, momentum resumes lower to probe 0.120, then 0.116–0.112. Day may settle in 0.114–0.118 if sellers press into the US close/Asia open cycle.
• Key levels: Support 0.120 (in-play), 0.116, 0.112, 0.110, 0.100; Resistance 0.126–0.128, 0.130–0.135, 0.140–0.143.
• Trade idea: Short into 0.1268 with target 0.112. Invalidation above 0.131–0.135 (discussed below).

1. Price action and structure (daily)

• Macro downtrend since early Aug: From ~0.30–0.35 area (Aug) to ~0.12 today. Lower highs and lower lows dominate; each rally has been sold.
• Structural break 2025-10-10: Large gap-down/liquidity event (intraday low ~0.0796, close ~0.1504) with record volume. Post-event, price carved a fragile base 0.14–0.16 but failed to reclaim, implying supply overhead.
• Current session (11-03): Fresh breakdown from the 0.135–0.136 shelf; accelerated sell impulse to 0.120. This invalidates the prior base and reopens downside toward the panic tail’s upper half.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence-based)

• Immediate support: 0.120 (session low cluster, round handle). Below: 0.118 (minor swing), 0.116 (measured continuation), 0.112 (Fibo/extension confluence), 0.110 (round), 0.100 (psychological magnet), 0.096–0.092 (historic tail-zone), 0.080 (panic wick reference).
• Overhead resistance: 0.126–0.128 (breakdown retest + intraday supply), 0.130–0.135 (prior shelf + MA/vwap supply), 0.140–0.143 (50% retrace of the 10/26 high to today’s low; key pivot), 0.149–0.151 (61.8% retrace and value edge post-crash), 0.156–0.165 (late-Oct balance).

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.150 (est.), sloping down. Price ~17–18% below: bearish impulse regime.
• 50D SMA ≈ ~0.23 (est., from Aug/Sept data), steeply down; far above price, underscoring macro downtrend.
• Daily EMAs (9/21/50) likely in bearish stack (9 < 21 < 50). Hourly EMAs also bear-aligned after the breakdown. A mean-reversion pop to the 9–21 EMA band on H1 often offers short entries; that band currently sits ~0.126–0.129.

4. Momentum (RSI/Stoch/MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Sliding to low-30s; not deeply oversold given the magnitude of drawdown—room for further downside before mean reversion becomes compelling.
• Hourly RSI: Printed sub-30 during the 15:00 impulse, bounced but remains below neutral 50; classic bear-market RSI behavior (rallies stall 45–55 zone).
• MACD (daily): Below zero with expanding negative histogram—bearish continuation. Hourly MACD below zero with a tentative, shallow uptick after the bounce—typical weak countertrend pause before another leg down unless it crosses/holds above signal near 0.127–0.129.

5. Volatility and bands (ATR/Bollingers/Keltner)

• ATR(14D) elevated post-10/10 event and expanding again today. Expect wider intraday swings.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price riding/expanding along the lower band; volatility expansion favors trend continuation.
• On H1, BB squeeze fired on the 15:00 bar with a downside break; price is walking the lower band with only shallow mean reversion—bearish persistence pattern.

6. Volume, OBV, and distribution

• 10/10 showed a capitulatory spike; however, subsequent weeks failed to reclaim key MAs—this is classic “distribution after capitulation” rather than durable accumulation.
• Today’s 15:00 H1 bar shows the day’s largest volume accompanying the breakdown from ~0.135 to ~0.124—supply-driven impulse.
• OBV (qualitatively) has trended lower since 10/10; minor up-days did not recoup OBV losses—net distribution.

7. VWAPs and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (intraday) sits above current price (given heavy early trading 0.133–0.136 then selloff), acting as dynamic resistance.
• Anchored VWAP from the 15:00 impulse bar likely near ~0.128–0.129. Price remains below, confirming sellers control since the break. Rallies toward that anchored VWAP often fade in continuation regimes.

8. Ichimoku (trend-state confirmation)

• H1: Price below a red cloud; Tenkan/Kijun above price; Lagging Span below price—fully bearish.
• H4/Daily: Also below cloud with a thickening future Kumo—trend still down; bounces to the Kijun are sellable in this context.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing considered: 10/26 high ~0.1650 down to today’s low ~0.1201.
  • 38.2%: ~0.136 (near today’s breakdown zone)
  • 50%: ~0.1425
  • 61.8%: ~0.149 These match prior resistance bands. Trading below the 38.2% level is a sign of trend strength downward.
• Extensions from the current micro-swing suggest next magnets near 0.116 and 0.112 (127.2%–161.8% micro-extensions), aligning with our target zone.

10. Pattern analysis

• Daily descending triangle since mid-Oct with a flat-ish base ~0.14 and lower highs; measured move (height ~0.02) targets ~0.12—hit today. Continuations often overshoot initial measured moves into the 1.272–1.618 extensions (0.116–0.112).
• H1 bear flag potential developing after the 15:00 impulse: weak countertrend drift from 0.120 to 0.126–0.127 would complete a flagpole/flag structure before a next leg lower.

11. Elliott wave (tactical framing)

• Intraday sequence looks like a wave-3 style impulse down at 15:00; current chop is a wave-4 flat/zigzag toward 0.126–0.128; projected wave-5 targets 0.116–0.112. This aligns with momentum and Fib extensions.

12. Probability-weighted scenarios (24h)

• Bear trend continuation (primary, ~65%): Fade bounce into 0.126–0.128; break 0.120; extend to 0.116–0.112; late session short-covering can lift into 0.114–0.118 close.
• Range stabilization (secondary, ~25%): Hold 0.120–0.130 band; multiple tests of 0.120 without breakdown; net close ~0.122–0.126.
• Bull surprise (tail, ~10%): Fast reclaim of 0.130–0.135 and session/anchored VWAP; daily close back above 0.136 would neutralize the immediate bearish call and open 0.140–0.143 test.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry: Prefer patience for a liquidity pop into resistance rather than chasing lows. Sell/short at 0.1268 (near prior intraday supply, H1 EMA band, anchored VWAP zone).
• Invalidation/stop (for planning): 0.1318 conservative, 0.1355 more structural (above breakdown shelf and 38.2% retrace). Choose based on risk tolerance and access to shorting.
• Target: 0.112 (first major extension support). Consider partials at 0.118–0.116 to lock in if momentum stalls.
• R:R: With entry 0.1268, target 0.112, risk to 0.1318 gives ~2.9:1; to 0.1355 gives ~3.5:1 if scaling partials.
• Contingency: If no bounce and price breaks 0.120 directly, a smaller “continuation” add below 0.119 with a tight stop above 0.122 may be used, but realize it’s a lower R:R chase.

14. 24-hour timeline forecast (illustrative)

• Next 2–6h: Mean-revert bounce stalls 0.126–0.128; sellers re-engage.
• 6–12h: Retest/break of 0.120; acceleration into 0.116–0.114.
• 12–24h: Probe 0.112; cover flows lift toward 0.115–0.118 into the subsequent session.

15. Invalidation tells to watch

• Reclaim and hold above session VWAP and 0.130–0.131 on expanding volume.
• Hourly RSI basing above 50 with MACD cross and higher lows above 0.126–0.128; that would hint at a shift to range or squeeze higher.

Bottom line

• The breakdown of the 0.135–0.136 shelf and failure to reclaim VWAP argue for selling strength. A tactical short into 0.1268 aiming for 0.112 aligns with multi-indicator, multi-timeframe bearish evidence.