POPCAT poised for an hourly squeeze: buying the 0.1032 dip for a push to 0.1095

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for POPCAT (SOL)

Summary view (what the last 90 days say)

• Regime shift: After trading in the 0.22–0.29 band through late Sep, POPCAT experienced a steep de-leveraging wave in October with a capitulatory flush on 2025-10-10 (low ~0.0796 intraday, close ~0.1504) and a massive intraday spike and failure on 2025-11-12 (high ~0.2090, close ~0.1272). Since then, a persistent downtrend transitioned into a basing phase around 0.09–0.11.
• Recent structure: A double-bottom/undercut-and-rally is visible around 0.08999–0.09040 (2025-11-21/23), followed by a constructive bounce to 0.1061 (2025-11-25). The last 24h shows tight consolidation between ~0.100–0.106.
• Current price: 0.10383281 (near session VWAP; neutral in the micro, constructive in the short term).

1. Trend and Moving Averages

• Daily SMAs/EMAs (approximations from the provided closes):
  • SMA20 ≈ 0.1170 (calculated from last 20 daily closes). Price is below the 20SMA (bearish on higher time frame), but curling up after a trough.
  • SMA50 is well above price (~0.18–0.20 region by inspection of prior regime), reinforcing the broader downtrend context.
  • EMA8 (daily) ≈ 0.100–0.101 and rising; EMA21 ≈ 0.112–0.115 and flattening/slightly falling. Short-term momentum (EMA8) is turning up and closing the distance to EMA21. A bullish 8/21 cross is not yet confirmed but is set up if price sustains >0.104–0.108 for several sessions.
• Hourly MAs:
  • Price oscillates around its intraday VWAP/MA cluster (~0.1037–0.1040). Dips to ~0.100 were bought, forming higher lows. Short-term trend is mildly up within a tight range.

Implication: Higher-timeframe trend remains down, but the short-term (1D-4H-1H) trend is improving with a nascent higher-low structure and rising short EMAs.

2. Momentum Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): rising from low-30s to mid/high-40s. That’s early-bullish momentum after oversold; plenty of headroom before overbought.
• Hourly RSI: oscillating mid-40s to mid-50s during the consolidation; no bearish extremes; favors range continuation with upward skew.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contraction with a potential signal-line cross in the coming sessions; momentum is less negative. On hourly, MACD turned positive on the push to 0.106 and is flattening; no strong bearish divergence.
• Stochastics (hourly): cycling within range; recent resets without price damage suggest accumulation.

Implication: Momentum supports a continuation attempt higher if resistance gives way; no evidence of immediate overbought.

3. Volatility and Bands

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~0.012–0.016 given recent ranges and the 11-12 spike. A 1x ATR move from 0.104 projects 0.092–0.120 boundaries for a day; 0.109–0.110 is comfortably within 0.5–0.7x ATR.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): mid-band ~0.117; lower band estimated ~0.083; upper ~0.151. Price is below the mid-band, favoring mean reversion drift higher toward ~0.112–0.117 if buyers maintain control.
• Hourly Bollinger: Notably tight; the band width compression (squeeze) after the 0.106 test indicates a breakout is likely within the next 12–24 hours.

Implication: Volatility compression + constructive structure often resolves in the direction of the latest impulse (up). The 24h target room comfortably includes 0.108–0.110.

4. Market Structure and Price Action

• Support: 0.0898–0.0904 (double bottom zone), 0.0974 (daily pivot S2 calc for current session), 0.1002–0.1006 (intraday defended shelf and pivot S1).
• Resistance: 0.1063–0.1067 (intraday high and daily pivot R1), 0.1095 (pivot R2), 0.1103 (Fib 1.272 ext), 0.112–0.117 (gap toward 20D mid-band), 0.123–0.129 (prior supply shelf).
• Pattern: Short-term ascending triangle/ascending channel on hourly with a flat cap around ~0.106 and rising lows near ~0.100–0.102. The 38.2% retrace test held (see Fibonacci section), a bullish tell.

Implication: A push through 0.1067 opens 0.1095–0.1103 quickly; failure likely retests 0.100–0.101 where buyers have shown up.

5. Fibonacci Analysis

• Swing used: 11-24 low 0.08983 to 11-25 high 0.10607 (range 0.01624).
  • 38.2% retrace: 0.10607 − 0.00621 ≈ 0.09986 (price bounced near 0.100), confirming shallow retracement and strong dip buying.
  • 50% retrace: ~0.09795; 61.8%: ~0.09604 (not reached).
  • 1.272 extension: 0.10607 + 0.272*0.01624 ≈ 0.11033.
  • 1.618 extension: 0.10607 + 0.618*0.01624 ≈ 0.11612.

Implication: First upside magnet beyond 0.1067 break sits at ~0.1103; aligns closely with pivot R2 (0.1095). Confluence strengthens the 0.1095–0.110 region as a tactical take-profit area for a 24h swing.

6. Pivot Points (Classic, using today’s H/L/C)

• Using H=0.10628, L=0.10024, C=0.10383:
  • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.10345
  • R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.10666
  • S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.10062
  • R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.10949
  • S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 0.09741

Implication: The market is oscillating around P (0.10345). A move above R1 (0.10666) targets R2 (0.10949). S1 (0.10062) is nearby support and ideal dip-entry zone.

7. Volume, VWAP, and Flow

• Volume picked up on 11-24 versus prior sessions, aiding the bounce; the 11-12 blow-off top with massive volume likely cleared overhead weak hands. Subsequent days saw declining volume on pullbacks and moderate volume on rallies, a mild accumulation footprint.
• Intraday VWAP (today) sits near the current price (~0.1038–0.1040). Repeated reclaim of VWAP after dips indicates buyers defending value.
• OBV directionally steady-to-up since 11-22 low (qualitative from price+volume behavior), consistent with accumulation.

Implication: Volume behavior supports a grind higher rather than a breakdown, unless 0.100 fails on heavy sell volume.

8. Ichimoku (contextual approximations)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; conversion (Tenkan) rising toward base (Kijun). A TK cross could occur if price maintains >0.105–0.108 for a few sessions. Cloud still overhead—medium-term resistance remains.
• Hourly: Price oscillating around a thin cloud; recent pushes above suggest a bullish bias as long as the base line near 0.102 holds.

Implication: Near-term tailwind, but higher-timeframe cloud cautions against assuming a full trend reversal. Tactical long favored; strategic trend flip needs more proof above ~0.117–0.123.

9. Risk Framing and Scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Range-break attempt to the upside.
  • Hold above VWAP/Pivot (~0.1034–0.1040) → push through 0.1067 (R1) → tag 0.1095–0.1103 (R2/Fib 1.272).
• Pullback case (30%): Liquidity sweep of 0.101–0.1006 (S1) before resuming up; still targets 0.1067 on recovery.
• Bear case (10%): Rejection at 0.106, loss of 0.1006, slide toward 0.0974 (S2). Would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and postpone the upside.

10. Synthesis and Trade Plan

• Confluence for upside within 24h:
  • Hourly ascending structure and Bollinger squeeze
  • Strong 38.2% retrace reaction near 0.100
  • Pivot confluence: R1=0.1067, R2=0.1095
  • Fib 1.272 ≈ 0.1103
  • Daily RSI rising from oversold and potential MACD cross ahead
• Key invalidation for the idea: sustained trade below 0.100 (and particularly below 0.0996–0.0998) would negate the immediate long bias and open 0.0974.

Prediction (24h): Mildly bullish. Expect a range 0.100–0.110 with a bias to resolve 0.1067 → 0.1095/0.1103. Mean-reversion toward the daily mid-band (~0.117) is more a 2–4 day prospect than 24h.

Execution details

• Entry: Optimal to use a buy limit on a small dip near intraday value/first support.
  • Preferred entry: 0.1032 (just below pivot P/VWAP zone), allowing for a modest pullback fill without requiring a full test of 0.1006.
• Take profit: 0.1095 (pivot R2; sits just below Fib 1.272 at 0.1103 to increase fill probability on first touch).
• (Not part of the requested outputs but prudent) Stop suggestion: 0.0996 (just below S1/round 0.100 and below the 38.2% retrace reaction), yielding roughly 3.6:1 R:R to 0.1095 from 0.1032.

Bottom line: Bias long for a 24h breakout attempt toward 0.1095–0.1103; use 0.1032 as the tactical entry and 0.1095 as the primary take-profit.