Popcat’s Post-Breakout Play: Buying the 0.108–0.109 Retest for a Run at 0.118

Educational note: The following is market analysis and a hypothetical trade setup for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; manage risk and confirm with your own research.

1. Context and data snapshot

• Instrument: Popcat (SOL) (POPCAT)
• Current price (last print): 0.11044187
• Daily regime (Aug–Nov): Prolonged downtrend from the 0.20–0.30 area, followed by a capitulative slide into mid-November and a base near 0.09–0.092, then a short-term rebound the past 2–3 sessions.
• Intraday (today): Range 0.1005–0.1116 with a late-session breakout and higher close versus the prior two days.

2. Multi-timeframe price action

• Daily structure: Lower highs/lower lows persist since September. A climactic down leg 11/12 (massive volume) failed to follow through lower; subsequent persistent grind lower found a double-bottom style base 11/21–11/23 around 0.090–0.092. Since 11/24, successive higher daily closes have shifted short-term structure from distribution to early accumulation/recovery.
• 1H structure (today’s intraday): Series of higher lows (≈0.1002 → 0.1018 → 0.1027–0.1033 → 0.1058), followed by a break above 0.1069–0.1074 and a late push to 0.1116. The 21:00 hour was a wide-range, high-volume expansion candle (breakout confirmation).

3. Trend and moving averages

• 10-day SMA ≈ 0.1011 (price above): near-term upswing confirmed.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.1170 (price below): medium-term trend still down; room remains for mean reversion toward 0.117.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): materially above price (owing to earlier 0.20–0.30 prints), underscoring the longer-term downtrend. Implication: Momentum recovery inside a broader bearish regime; rallies into the 0.115–0.123 zone likely meet supply.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily: recently ~31 at 11/25; today’s advance likely lifts into high-30s/low-40s. This is a transition from oversold to neutral—bullish for a continuation squeeze toward the 20SMA.
• Hourly momentum: Strong positive inflection; breakout candle suggested rising impulse. Expect pullbacks to be bought while hourly RSI resets.
• MACD (daily): Below zero, but histogram likely improving; on 1H, MACD bullish with widening histogram—supports a short-term continuation leg.

5. Volatility and bands

• Realized daily range today ≈ 0.0111 (10.5% of price). Post-capitulation, realized vol contracted and now is re-expanding on an upside break.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2; qualitative): Price rebounded from the lower band region (0.09–0.10) and is pushing toward the mid-band (~0.117 SMA). Room toward mid/upper band (0.117–0.145) if momentum persists.
• Keltner Channel / Squeeze (qualitative): The late-session expansion likely reflects a squeeze release from prior compression; favors continuation until upper envelopes are tagged or momentum stalls at the 20SMA.

6. Volume analytics

• Daily volume surged on 11/12 (capitulatory), then declined during basing; the 11/24–11/26 up-days show improving participation. The 21:00 hour today carried notably larger volume than prior hours—bullish confirmation of the breakout.
• OBV/ADL (qualitative): Inflecting higher the last 2–3 sessions; suggests incremental accumulation.

7. Support, resistance, market profile

• Supports:
  • 0.106–0.107: breakout shelf / 1H consolidation top.
  • 0.1035: classic S1 pivot (see pivots below), and the prior multi-hour cluster.
  • 0.1008–0.1014: intraday basing lows.
  • 0.090–0.092: daily double-bottom base (major).
• Resistances:
  • 0.1116–0.1120: today’s high/initial breakout cap.
  • 0.1145–0.1186: R1 and R2 pivots; also near 20SMA (~0.117) and measured move target from double-bottom (see next).
  • 0.123–0.127: mid-Nov congestion/resupply zone.
  • 0.150: former floor turned major resistance.

8. Pattern work

• Double bottom (daily): Lows 11/21–23 at ~0.090–0.092, neckline ~0.104. Measured move ≈ neckline − trough ≈ 0.104 − 0.090 = 0.014. Target ≈ 0.118. This aligns with R2 and 20SMA cluster—strong confluence.
• Breakout-backtest logic (1H): Post-breakout, a shallow retrace into 0.107–0.109 would be a typical “kiss” level before continuation.
• Candles: Today’s late-session wide range up bar closing near highs is a bullish expansion candle; often invites a retest of its mid-body (≈0.108–0.109) before extension.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low 0.08999 (11/22) to swing high 0.11158 (today):
  • 38.2%: ~0.1035; 50%: ~0.1008; 61.8%: ~0.0982. Today’s structure held above 38.2% on the latter hours; buying dips in 0.108–0.104 carries higher-probability support below (layered bids).
• Extension targets from the same swing:
  • 1.272: ~0.1160; 1.618: ~0.1195. These stack with R1/R2/20SMA—good profit-taking zone in the next 24h if momentum continues.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• 1H: Price above Tenkan/Kijun after a bullish cross; cloud likely thin ahead—supports upside follow-through.
• Daily: Price below cloud, Kumo overhead bearish. Interpretation: Counter-trend rally into resistance bands.

11. Pivots (derived from today’s H/L/C ≈ 0.1116/0.1005/0.1104)

• Pivot (P) ≈ 0.1075
• R1 ≈ 0.1145
• R2 ≈ 0.1186
• S1 ≈ 0.1035
• S2 ≈ 0.0965 These align tightly with fibs and measured move levels, strengthening the map.

12. VWAP/Mean reversion

• Intraday VWAP (qualitative) ~0.105–0.106 given most of the session traded 0.101–0.104 before the breakout. Price closing above VWAP is bullish; pullbacks toward 0.107–0.109 should attract dip buyers while VWAP trends up.
• Mean reversion to 20-day (≈0.117) remains a natural magnet if buyers sustain control.

13. Liquidity and stop dynamics

• Buy-side liquidity likely clustered just above 0.112 and 0.115; a push through 0.112 often accelerates into 0.1145–0.1186 (pivot/R2/1.272–1.618 fib cluster) as stops cascade.
• Sell-side liquidity resting under 0.107 and heavier under 0.1035; a decisive break below 0.1035 would caution that the breakout failed and risks a slide toward 0.1008 and possibly the 0.096–0.098 pocket.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Mild pullback to 0.108–0.109 (mid of breakout candle) holds, then continuation to test 0.112 → 0.1145; potential extension toward 0.116–0.118 into prior supply/20SMA.
• Bullish extension (25%): Quick squeeze through 0.112 early, momentum carries straight to 0.118–0.120 without offering a deep pullback; consolidation just under 0.118 into the close.
• Bearish fade (20%): Failure to hold 0.107–0.108; price slips to 0.1035 (S1). Loss of S1 converts the day into a failed breakout, opening 0.1008 and possibly 0.098–0.096 (S2) if risk-off returns.

15. Risk management and R:R of the proposed plan

• Proposed long entry: 0.1088 (limit on pullback/partial fills between 0.108–0.109 acceptable)
• Stop (suggested, not required by prompt): 0.1034 (below S1/fib 38.2% and below breakout shelf)
• Target (TP): 0.1178 (front-run R2/20SMA/measured move cluster)
• Reward: 0.0090; Risk: 0.0054; R:R ≈ 1.67:1. A more conservative stop at 0.1007 improves technical validity but lowers R:R; an aggressive stop at 0.1059 improves R:R but increases whipsaw risk.

16. Synthesis and verdict

• Confluences for upside over the next day: Double-bottom breakout with measured move ≈0.118, momentum inflection (1H), price > 10SMA and > VWAP, pivot confluence (R1/R2) aligning with fib extensions and the 20SMA magnet (≈0.117).
• Headwinds: The broader daily trend is still down; 0.1145–0.1186 is a well-defined supply zone where sellers may reassert. Expect reaction there.
• Net: Favor a tactical long on a pullback for a push toward 0.116–0.118 in the next 24 hours.

Projected 24h price path: 0.108–0.109 pullback → 0.112 breakout → 0.1145 → 0.116–0.118. Risk-off invalidation on decisive loss of 0.1035.