Popcat poised for a mean-reversion pop: buying the dip into 0.108s for a run at 0.118

Step-by-step multi-timeframe technical analysis for POPCAT (SOL)

Data coverage used

• Daily OHLCV: 2025-08-31 to 2025-11-28 (close = 0.10882237)
• Intraday (hourly granularity for 2025-11-27/28)

1. Market structure and regime

• Long-term (Sep → Nov): Persistent downtrend from Sep highs (~0.31) to Nov lows (~0.0899) with several high-volume selloffs (notably 2025-10-10 and 2025-11-12). Structure is lower highs/lower lows on the daily, i.e., bearish regime continues.
• Short-term (since 2025-11-21): A tradable bounce from 0.08999 → 0.1129 → pullback to ~0.1067 → new push to ~0.1145. That prints higher highs and higher lows on the last 5–7 sessions, i.e., early-stage recovery inside a larger downtrend.
• Intraday (last 24h): Attempted breakout to 0.114–0.115 stalled; price faded to 0.1088. Net: bullish micro-structure cooling into a mean-reversion pullback.

2. Key support/resistance (confluence-driven)

• Nearby supports: 0.1080–0.1085 (intraday shelf); 0.1065–0.1073 (today’s low cluster); 0.1033–0.1041 (Nov 20/25 closes); 0.1000 (psychological); 0.0920–0.0904 (Nov 21–23 base); 0.08999 (swing low).
• Overhead resistance: 0.1118–0.1129 (hourly highs/Nov 28); 0.1145 (intraday spike 2025-11-28 15:00); 0.1180–0.1182 (23.6% Fib retrace level); 0.123–0.128 (daily supply band); 0.145 (Nov early pivot).
• Read: Price sits just above first support zone with well-defined overhead caps at 0.1129/0.1145, then 0.118.

3. Moving averages (trend filters and mean reversion anchors)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 0.10713 (calc: [0.10372+0.10409+0.10980+0.10923+0.10882]/5). Price 0.10882 > 5SMA → short-term momentum positive.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 0.10180 (sum ≈ 1.01802/10). Price > 10SMA by ~6.9% → short-term uptrend intact.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.11251 (sum ≈ 2.25013/20). Price 0.10882 < 20SMA → still below medium-term mean; upside mean-reversion room back to ~0.1125.
• Implication: Early-stage recovery (5SMA > 10SMA; price above both), but below 20SMA signals the bounce is not yet a full trend reversal; base case favors reversion toward 0.112–0.113 before testing higher.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (qualitative): From sub-30 readings in the Nov selloff to roughly neutral now. Given the bounce from ~0.09 to ~0.11 with modest pullback, RSI likely 48–55. That’s neutral-to-slightly-bullish with room to expand upward before overbought.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Pulled off oversold and likely cycling mid-range after intraday fade. This supports a buy-the-dip near support if higher lows persist.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Histogram likely contracting toward zero from negative; signal line flattening. Early bullish inflection risk if price can sustain above 0.112–0.113.
• Intraday RSI (hourly): After a pop to ~0.1145, hourly RSI cooled; now near neutral, allowing another attempt higher if support holds.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.009–0.011 given recent daily ranges; around 8–10% of price. Expect 24h swing of ~0.009–0.011.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily (approx): Mid ~0.1125; stdev ~0.008–0.009 (post-vol crush vs early Nov). Bands ≈ [0.095–0.097, 0.128–0.131]. Price 0.1088 is below midband → statistical pull toward the midband (0.112–0.113) favored short-term.

6. Volume and participation

• Nov 26–28 volumes are moderate after very heavy mid-Nov liquidation. The recovery rally shows participation, but not blow-off buying. Today’s intraday volume spiked on pushes toward 0.113–0.1145 and tapered on pullback to 0.108–0.109, a constructive sign (buyers active on strength; sellers not overwhelmingly aggressive on dips).

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 2025-11-12 high → 2025-11-21 low)

• High 0.2090 → Low 0.08999; Range ≈ 0.11901.
• 23.6%: 0.08999 + 0.0281 ≈ 0.1181 (first fib resistance cluster).
• 38.2%: ≈ 0.1355; 50%: ≈ 0.1495; 61.8%: ≈ 0.1635.
• Current at 0.1088 sits under 23.6% retrace → bounce is shallow. A move to 0.118 would be the first significant retracement checkpoint; expect supply there.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative; daily)

• Price below Kumo; Kijun likely ~0.12–0.125; Tenkan near ~0.108–0.111. Price near/just under Tenkan with Kijun overhead. Standard interpretation: long-term bearish cloud; short-term test of Tenkan/Kijun retests probable. A sustained close above ~0.112–0.113 would strengthen the case for a Tenkan>Price>Kijun flip in coming sessions (but still under the cloud).

9. VWAP and intraday posture

• Session VWAP (approx) today skewed by the midday push; price closing the hour near 0.1088 likely sits slightly below the day’s rolling VWAP (~0.110–0.111). Being below VWAP after a failed breakout is near-term neutral-bearish intraday, yet sitting atop well-defined supports allows a tactical dip-buy setup.

10. Candles and micro-patterns

• Daily: Several green closes in a row off the base, small-bodied pullback today vs yesterday; no bearish engulfing. Looks like a bullish pause.
• Intraday: Minor double bottom zone ~0.1070–0.1073 today; repeated tests held. Wicks up to 0.114–0.115 suggest supply pockets above, but each rejection is getting shallower, typical of building pressure in an ascending channel.

11. Channel analysis

• Short-term ascending channel from 0.09 lows: HLs ~0.100–0.106–0.107; HHs ~0.1098–0.1129–0.1145. Midline currently near ~0.110; price at 0.1088 = slight underperformance vs midline, consistent with a buyable pullback toward the lower rail ~0.107.

12. Statistical mean reversion lens

• With price below the 20SMA but above 5SMA/10SMA, the highest-probability short-term path is a drift toward the daily mean (~0.112–0.113). Given ATR ~0.01, a test of 0.112–0.114 within 24h is statistically reasonable, with stretch targets at the 23.6% Fib (~0.118).

13. Risk management and R-multiples (for the proposed trade)

• Entry zone: 0.1080–0.1085 (optimize fill near today’s minor support and under the 5SMA slope). We will specify 0.1083.
• Primary target: 0.1180–0.1182 (Fib 23.6% + local supply). That’s ~+8.9% from 0.1083.
• Protective logic (not asked but vital): Invalidated on a decisive break and close below 0.1065 (loss of intraday HL structure), with secondary guardrail 0.1040. That defines ~1.6–4.0% downside to first guard, ~4% to secondary, giving R:R ≈ 2.2–2.5 if targeting 0.1180.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 0.107–0.109 support, rotate up to 0.112–0.113 (20SMA midband), probe 0.1145; if volume confirms, extension to 0.116–0.118.
• Bear case (25%): Lose 0.1065 on impulse, slide to 0.104–0.105 VWAP/spot support. Recovery likely attempts from there; daily structure remains fragile.
• Bull stretch (15%): Strong momentum day with clean reclaim of 0.1145 early, straight run into 0.118; stalls below 0.12 as supply engages.

15. Synthesis

• Long-term trend bearish; short-term momentum constructive with supportive micro-structure. Price sits at/near a tactical dip zone within an ascending short-term channel, below the 20SMA, with a high-probability magnet toward 0.112–0.113 and a realistic 24h stretch into 0.116–0.118 if 0.1129/0.1145 breaks.
• Given positive skew vs nearby support and the presence of multiple upside magnets (20SMA mid, prior highs, 23.6% Fib), a tactical long is favored with tight invalidation.

Decision

• Bias: Buy the pullback.
• Predicted movement next 24h: Range 0.106–0.116 baseline; upside extension possible to ~0.118 on momentum/volume expansion.

Execution plan

• Order type: Limit buy at 0.1083 to capture dip; if market runs without filling, consider chasing only on confirmed break-and-hold above 0.1129 (not part of this one-price constraint).
• Profit-taking: Close at 0.1180 (first fib and local supply).