POPCAT coils above support: aiming for a liquidity sweep toward 0.109–0.110 in the next 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias next 24h: Mild bullish (range with upward skew). Expected range 0.1040–0.1098 with a tilt to test 0.1088–0.1100 supply.
• Rationale: Daily momentum has recovered from late‑Nov lows; price is basing above a rising short-term mean and coiling in a 1H Bollinger squeeze atop a well-tested intraday support shelf (0.1048–0.1052). Risk is defined just below 0.1040; reward into 0.1090–0.1100.
• Plan: Buy pullback near 0.1050; target 0.1095. Invalidation on sustained break <0.1040.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily): After a capitulation leg into 0.0899–0.0920 (Nov 21–22), price staged a relief advance to 0.1098 (Nov 26). Since then, pullbacks have been shallow, maintaining closes largely above 0.1037–0.1045. Structure resembles a base-building phase within a larger downtrend from September highs (>0.29) and the sharp mid-Nov spike/fade (Nov 12). Key daily swing points: support 0.0955, 0.1037–0.1045; resistance 0.1098–0.112, 0.123, 0.128–0.130.
• Intermediate (4H proxy via daily+1H): Price is compressing under 0.109–0.110 with a sequence of equal highs (liquidity overhead) and a rising short-term floor 0.1048–0.1052. That creates a modest ascending triangle feel (flat top, higher lows) since late-Nov.
• Intraday (1H): Past 24h show a tight channel: highs 0.1088/0.1092, lows 0.1052/0.1049, with repeated defense of 0.105. This forms a coiling range above support, favoring a mean-reversion pop toward range highs if support persists.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence)

• Immediate support: 0.1048–0.1052 (intraday shelf tested multiple hours 14:00, 15:00, 19:00 UTC), then 0.1039–0.1045 (daily closes Nov 29–30), and 0.1022 (38.2% retrace from swing 0.0899→0.1098).
• Immediate resistance: 0.1088–0.1092 (1H highs, supply), then 0.1100–0.1123 (round number + daily cluster), 0.123 (gap/swing resistance), 0.128–0.130 (supply from early Nov).
• Liquidity pools: Equal/near-equal highs around 0.1090–0.1092 suggest stop liquidity sits above; a sweep to 0.1095–0.1100 is likely if buyers hold 0.105.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• Daily SMA10 ≈ 0.10548 (avg of last 10 closes). Current 0.10557 is marginally above the short-term mean, indicative of a nascent bullish bias in the very short term.
• Daily EMA20/SMA20: Still declining and above price (dragged up by October/early-Nov higher prints). This confirms the broader trend remains down; current bounce is a countertrend/base phase.
• 1H EMA21 (proxy from tape) sits near ~0.107; price oscillates just below/around it, showing intraday neutrality with slight downward drift that often precedes a squeeze resolution.
• Alignment summary: Long MAs down, short MA flat-to-slightly up; positioning favors tactical longs at support with quick targets, not trend following.

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate ≈ 63–64: Calculated from the last 14 closes, gains have outpaced losses since the 0.0899 low. This places momentum in bullish-but-not-overbought territory, supportive of further testing of overhead supply.
• 1H RSI: oscillating mid-40s to low-50s intra-session, consistent with consolidation. Dips toward 40 are getting bought near 0.105, hinting at positive RSI divergence vs. equal price lows.
• MACD: Daily MACD likely turned up post-0.092 low; histogram has been positive/flattening into the current consolidation, suggesting momentum pause before next push. On 1H, MACD is near the zero-line with small bars, typical of a squeeze phase.

5. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14): contracted significantly from mid-Nov spikes; present day-to-day ATR roughly in the ~0.009–0.012 zone by inspection. This implies a 24h expected range of about ±4–6% from the mean, aligning with 0.104–0.110 boundaries.
• Bollinger Bands (1H): Bandwidth compressed; price rides the mid-band near 0.106–0.107 while defending the lower band at ~0.105. Squeezes at support often resolve upward to tag the upper band (≈0.1085–0.1095).

6. Volume and flow

• Volume trend: Large capitulation/spike volumes around Nov 12 followed by persistent decline in turnover—typical of base formation after a shock. Recent hours show modest upticks on bounces from 0.105 and lighter volume on dips—constructive for bulls.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative read): Stabilization with slight upward bias since late Nov; no sign of aggressive distribution during the last two pullbacks.

7. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing low to high (0.0899 → 0.1098):
  • 38.2%: 0.1022
  • 50%: 0.0999
  • 61.8%: 0.0976 Current price 0.1056 remains above 38.2%, keeping the swing advance intact. Pullbacks have respected 0.104–0.105 zone (just above 38.2%), which often precedes a retest of the swing high. A standard AB=CD within the current range measures to ~0.109–0.110 on upside resolution.

8. Ichimoku (directional cues, qualitative)

• 1H: Price hovering around/just below a thin cloud; Tenkan and Kijun likely flattening near 0.106–0.107. Flat Kijun magnets often attract price; a reclaim and hold above ~0.1072 would favor a push to 0.109.
• Daily: Cloud remains overhead from earlier downtrend, but distance has closed; if price continues basing above 0.104, future span thinning increases odds of a test higher.

9. Pattern recognition and tape reads

• Consolidation box 0.105–0.109 with higher-lows bias supports an ascending triangle/coil. Multiple rejections near 0.109 imply trapped shorts above and stop liquidity likely clustered 0.1092–0.1100. Repeated defenses of 0.105 suggest passive bids replenishing.
• No bearish distribution signatures (no expanding range down days on volume); most down moves are on contracting volume.

10. Mean reversion vs. breakout odds (next 24h)

• Mean-reversion probability: Moderate-high. With bands tight and price near lower half of the range but above key shelf, a revert to mid/upper range (0.1075–0.1095) is favored.
• Breakout probability: Moderate. An upside squeeze through 0.1092 into 0.1100 is plausible if 0.1075 is reclaimed on expanding volume. Downside break below 0.1040 would negate the setup and open 0.1022, 0.1000.
• Scenario weighting (subjective):
  • Up to 0.1088–0.1100: 55%
  • Range-hold 0.1048–0.1080: 30%
  • Breakdown <0.1040 → 0.102–0.100: 15%

11. Risk management and trade structuring

• Entry: Staggered bids 0.1049–0.1052 to lean on the intraday shelf; or momentum add on reclaim of 0.1072 with confirmation.
• Stop (not requested but prudent): Tactical invalidation 0.1038 (below shelf and under today’s lows), tighter traders 0.1043. That yields roughly 12–14 bps risk for a 35–45 bps target (RR ≈ 2.5–3.5).
• Target: Scale out into 0.1088–0.1098; front-run the round number and prior high by closing core near 0.1095.

12. Catalysts and caveats

• Asset is a memecoin on SOL; liquidity can thin rapidly off-peak; be mindful of slippage. Overnight headlines or SOL L1 volatility can amplify moves. Respect invalidation.

Conclusion

• With daily momentum supportive, intraday support respected, and a volatility squeeze near a defended shelf, the path of least resistance over the next 24h is a drift toward 0.1088–0.1100. I favor a tactical long, entering near 0.1050 with a take-profit at 0.1095, invalidation below 0.1040.