Popcat’s Oversold Flush: Setting Up a Reflex Pop to 0.087 — Tactical Long for the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bounce favored after an oversold flush to fresh multi‑month lows; expect a retest of 0.076–0.077 followed by a reflex rally toward 0.084–0.087 (with tail risk of another liquidity sweep to ~0.073).
• Decision: Buy (short-term mean reversion) with tight invalidation below today’s sell-climax low.
• Open around: 0.0768 (limit on a minor pullback) or buy-stop confirmation above 0.0803 (pivot reclaim); plan uses 0.0768.
• Take profit: 0.0872 (aligns with 38.2% retracement and intraday R2 cluster).

Market context and structure

• Regime: Persistent daily downtrend since mid-November, marked by lower highs and lower lows. Today (2025-12-18) printed a new multi-month low at 0.0757, breaking the prior capitulation pivot (~0.0796 on 2025-10-10).
• Current price: 0.07798, below all short-/intermediate MAs and key balance nodes, but intraday shows stabilization after a heavy sell-off.
• Volume: 12-18 daily volume ~22.6M, the highest for the past week and rising through the day; intraday downmove featured a notable sell climax at 19:00 UTC (close equals low), followed by stabilization and a small bounce (20–21:00). This is typical of a short-term capitulation/absorption phase.

Support and resistance mapping (multi-timeframe)

• Immediate supports:
  • 0.0757 (today’s low; fresh multi-month swing low; liquidity pivot)
  • 0.0734 (S1 from daily pivot math; see below)
  • 0.0689 (S2 pivot)
• Near resistances:
  • 0.0796–0.0803 (broken October low and today’s pivot P ≈ 0.0802; reclaim flips to support)
  • 0.0847–0.0850 (R1 pivot and intraday supply node)
  • 0.0870–0.0876 (38.2% retrace of 0.1056→0.0757 leg; upper intraday supply pocket)
  • 0.0906–0.0916 (50%–R2 confluence)
  • 0.095–0.100 (Tenkan/Kijun/20SMA zone—broader mean)

Moving averages (daily)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.0985 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price is ~21% below—an extreme short-term deviation that tends to mean-revert within 1–3 sessions.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 0.12; price far below, confirming bearish intermediate trend.
• EMAs: 12 EMA < 26 EMA and price < both; MACD likely negative and widening before today’s flush.
• Read-through: Trend-following signals remain bearish, but the distance from fast MAs is statistically stretched, favoring a reflexive bounce rather than fresh momentum continuation in the next 24h.

Momentum and oscillators (daily)

• RSI(14) ≈ 27 (computed), entering classic oversold. Prior day RSI was higher; no bullish divergence on daily closes yet, but magnitude is sufficient for a tactical bounce setup.
• Stochastic: Near 0% (close printed at the 14-session low), indicating extreme short-term weakness—often followed by 1–2 sessions of snapback.
• MACD: Negative with expanding histogram into today’s low; short-term continuation risk remains, but when paired with Bollinger breach (below), odds of a bounce rise.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.0985; stdev est. ~0.007. Lower band ≈ 0.0845. Today’s close (0.0780) is well below the lower band, a classic band “walk” extension. Historically, closes >1 sigma beyond the band revert toward the band within ~1–2 days with decent frequency.
• ATR(14) (est.): ~0.0045–0.005. Today’s intraday range (~0.0113) was >2x ATR—another capitulation tell.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 2×ATR): Lower KC ≈ 0.088–0.089 (est.). Price is far outside, signaling an extreme move likely to mean-revert toward 0.084–0.089.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price far below Tenkan (~0.095 est.) and Kijun (~0.101 est.), and below a bearish cloud. Signal is bearish; however, the large gap from Tenkan/Kijun statistically precedes “snapback to Tenkan” attempts over the next 1–3 sessions. Near-term magnet: ~0.092 (stretch target beyond 24h).

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: 12-09 high 0.1056 → 12-18 low 0.0757 (range 0.0299).
• 38.2%: 0.0757 + 0.382×0.0299 ≈ 0.0871.
• 50%: ≈ 0.0906.
• 61.8%: ≈ 0.0942.
• For a 24h bounce, 0.0848–0.0871 is the primary target zone, with stretch to 0.0906 if momentum accelerates.

Classical pivots (using today’s H/L/C)

• H ≈ 0.0870, L ≈ 0.0757, C ≈ 0.0780.
• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.0802.
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.0848; R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.0916.
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.0734; S2 ≈ 0.0689.
• Read: Reclaiming P (0.0802) shifts intraday bias to upside, with 0.0848 as the first take-profit node; R2 aligns with 50% retrace.

Volume/flow diagnostics

• OBV (qualitative) trending down since 11-12 blowoff; today showed negative delta spike typical of capitulation. Intraday 19:00 close-at-low with high volume, followed by stabilization—suggests absorption.
• Market profile (intraday): New low created a low-volume “air pocket” below 0.079–0.080; once price re-enters above 0.080, it can quickly traverse to the 0.084–0.085 high-volume node.

Hourly microstructure

• Sequence: Drift lower during Asian/European hours, acceleration 17:00–20:00 UTC (sell climax), stabilization and mild bounce into 21:00.
• Hourly RSI (qualitative) printed sub-20 at the low and recovered; small bullish momentum build. No strong bullish divergence yet, but momentum loss on the downside is visible.
• VWAP (intraday est.): Above price; a reclaim typically coincides with a push to pivot P then R1.

Pattern/DeMark/Donchian

• Donchian 20-day breakout to new lows confirms trend-following sell signal, but capitulation context reduces edge for fresh shorts in the immediate 24h.
• TD Sequential: Likely a 9-count completion today (continuous lower closes), which often precedes 1–4 bar countertrend bounces.
• Candles: Today’s daily likely a wide-range, near-close-at-low red body (not a hammer). On lower timeframes, subsequent candles show stabilization; a higher low on the next hourly print would confirm a micro bottom for a bounce.

Probabilistic scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Early dip/retest 0.076–0.077, reclaim 0.080 pivot, continuation to 0.084–0.085; tag 0.087 possible on momentum.
• Alternate (30%): Sideways 0.076–0.082 compression day; multiple tests of pivot without clean break; close near 0.081–0.083.
• Bear tail (10%): Another liquidity sweep to 0.073–0.074 (S1), then hard bounce back above 0.078; sustained trade below 0.073 would invalidate bounce thesis and open path to 0.069 (S2).

Risk, invalidation, and timing

• Key invalidation: Sustained acceptance below 0.0755 on hourly closes. A flush to 0.073–0.074 that quickly reclaims 0.076 keeps the bounce case alive; failure to reclaim is a stop trigger for tactical longs.
• Time window: The highest odds for the reflex pop are within the next 8–24 hours as volatility mean-reverts and shorts cover.
• Sizing: Given memecoin volatility on SOL and fresh trend lows, keep risk per trade small; use a hard stop (not part of the requested fields) around 0.0732.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Entry: 0.0768 limit (buying a minor pullback toward micro-support). Conservative alternative: buy-stop at 0.0803 on pivot reclaim.
• Target (TP): 0.0872 (just above the 38.2% retrace and near intraday R2/offer pocket), capturing the typical reflex amplitude while front-running heavier supply near 0.087–0.091.
• Rationale:
  • Oversold extremes (RSI ~27, Bollinger/Keltner breaches, >2×ATR range)
  • Sell climax + stabilization pattern
  • Strong confluence of near-term targets (R1 0.0848, Fib 0.0871, micro supply)
  • Favorable R:R vs. invalidation below 0.073–0.075.

What would flip the bias to short?

• A clean rally into 0.0848–0.087 with momentum exhaustion (bearish divergences on 15–60m, rejection wicks) would become an attractive 24–48h fade back to 0.078–0.080. Until then, the asymmetric short-term edge is to fade the extension with a tactical long.

Bottom line

• The larger trend is down, but the immediate setup is an oversold, high-probability mean-reversion bounce. Execute with tight risk, target the 0.084–0.087 pocket, and avoid overstaying past R1/R2 confluence without a confirmed higher-low base.