Popcat (SOL) Price Analysis Powered by AI

Sell the Rip: POPCAT poised to test sub-0.080 on bearish follow-through

Summary view

Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish to sideways; expect a drift into 0.0798–0.0780 with risk of a liquidity sweep toward 0.0768; upside capped near 0.0838–0.0850 unless momentum flips.
Plan: Fade bounces into nearby resistance; short into strength around 0.0833–0.0838 with take-profit near 0.0798–0.0799. Stop (for risk control) above 0.0851.

Step-by-step technical analysis

Daily trend: Clear downtrend since late September (0.25→0.08). Lower highs/lower lows persist. Breakdown events on 2025-10-10 and 2025-11-12 established structural weakness; all subsequent rallies have been sold.
Recent price action: After 12/18 low at 0.07566, a weak bounce to 0.08416 on 12/19 failed; 12/20 prints a lower high on intraday charts and closes ~0.08165, slipping back below 12/20 daily pivot (see pivots below).
Key levels: • Resistance: 0.0833–0.0838 (R1/last intraday supply), 0.0848–0.0850 (prior day’s high cluster / R2), 0.089–0.092 (short-term Fib 38.2% retrace zone), 0.100–0.104 (round number + late Nov value area). • Support: 0.0807 (S1), 0.0798 (S2), 0.0780 (swing shelf), 0.0769–0.0757 (recent lows and breakdown shelf).
Market structure implications: Price sits below multiple supply layers with nearby resistance tight above. The path of least resistance remains down unless price reclaims >0.0850 with follow-through.

20D SMA ≈ 0.0962 (computed from last 20 closes). Current price (≈0.08165) is ~15% below the 20D SMA, confirming bearish momentum and trend pressure.
50D SMA (approximate) is still declining and well above spot (>0.11), reinforcing medium-term downside bias.
Interpretation: Being below the 20D and 50D with both sloping down suggests rallies are for selling until proven otherwise.

14D RSI ≈ 32 (derived from last 14 closes). Near, but not at, classical oversold (30). This supports a mild bounce risk, but with RSI < 40 in a downtrend, mean reversion rallies often fade under resistance.
Stochastic (qualitative): Camping in the lower regime with frequent failures to sustain %K/%D crosses—consistent with trend persistence.

Daily MACD remains below zero and beneath the signal line. The histogram attempted to contract after the 12/18 bounce but stalled again into 12/20. Net: bearish momentum not yet reversed.

Recent daily ranges have compressed after the 12/17–12/18 wide moves. A rough 14D ATR sits around 0.005–0.007. Today’s realized range is modest (H 0.08413, L 0.08153). Compression below the 20D SMA favors continuation in the direction of trend unless a sudden impulsive reversal occurs.

Mid-band ≈ 0.0962 (20D SMA). Estimated lower band ≈ 0.078–0.079 given recent dispersion; price is hovering just above it. In downtrends, riding the lower band can persist; any bounce toward the mid-band would first need to clear the 0.083–0.085 cap, then 0.089–0.093.

Price is below conversion and base lines; cloud is overhead and projected lower but still above price. Chikou would trail into heavy traffic. Net: bearish alignment; rallies into the base/cloud are likely to be rejected on first attempts.

Swing 12/09 high (0.11099) to 12/18 low (0.07566): • 38.2% = ~0.08915; 50% = ~0.09333; 61.8% = ~0.0975. • Current price is below even the 23.6% retrace, showing weak retracement quality; if a bounce appears, 0.089–0.093 is the first significant Fibonacci supply zone.
Larger swing 11/12 spike high (0.20903) to 12/18 low (0.07566): • 23.6% ≈ 0.1072, 38.2% ≈ 0.1266. These are far above spot and unlikely in the next 24h without a regime change.

High = 0.084128, Low = 0.081529, Close = 0.081646.
Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.082434.
R1 ≈ 0.083339; R2 ≈ 0.085033; S1 ≈ 0.080740; S2 ≈ 0.079835.
Price is below P and failing to sustain tests of the 0.0828–0.0833 band. Tactically bearish bias while below P; optimal short entries are near R1 with targets toward S1/S2.

Volume has trended lower post the 11/12 blow-off; recent sessions show diminishing participation. Into weekends, thin liquidity can exaggerate moves; breakdowns can sweep toward nearby supports (0.0798 → 0.0769) before mean-reverting.

Stair-step lower highs from ~0.0845 to ~0.0832 to ~0.0828, with weak bounces and quick fades. Buyers defend near 0.0816–0.0818 but absorption suggests supply is still active on upticks.

Descending channel/flag since early December. The 12/19 bounce resembles a textbook bear-flag retrace that is now failing.
Emerging descending triangle on intraday frames with a flat-ish base near 0.0816–0.0818 and compressing highs; measured move from breakdown projects into ~0.0798–0.0790 initially, then possibly ~0.0780/0.0769 on extension.

Bearish continuation to S2/extension: 45% probability. Targets: 0.0798 → 0.0780; stretch to 0.0769 if liquidity sweeps.
Range-bound chop 0.081–0.0838: 35% probability. Fade edges, with pivot P dictating bias.
Bullish surprise (reclaim >0.0850 with follow-through): 20% probability. If occurs, opens 0.089–0.093 (Fib 38.2–50%) but requires impulsive volume which is absent as of now.

Rationale: Dominant downtrend, price below falling MAs, RSI sub-40, MACD negative, repeated intraday failures at 0.0828–0.0833, and pivot structure favoring sells near R1. Risk is defined just above 0.0850 (R2), where a reclaim would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis.
Entry: Sell limit around 0.08334 (near R1/overhead supply). If price doesn’t bounce, consider scaling from 0.0828–0.0834.
Take profit (24h horizon): Primary TP at 0.07985 (S2). Optional secondary extension at 0.0780 if momentum accelerates.
Risk control (not requested but advised): Stop above 0.0851 (above R2/prior supply), yielding a favorable R:R (~1:1.7 to S2, better if extension prints).

Outlook conclusion

The weight of evidence (trend, momentum, structure, pivots, and failed bounces) supports a Sell-the-Rip approach. Expect a test of 0.0798 over the next 24 hours; deeper probes to 0.0780–0.0769 are plausible if liquidity thins. Bullish invalidation is a firm reclaim and hold above 0.0850 with rising volume.