New Year’s Eve Spring: POPCAT Poised For A Sharp Mean-Reversion Pop Into The 0.078s

Executive summary and 24h path

• Bias (next 24h): Relief bounce favored after a liquidity sweep; expect a reversion toward 0.0773–0.0785 before encountering heavier supply. Base case probability ~60%.
• Alternate: Another probe of 0.0737–0.0727 if the bounce fails to reclaim 0.0758/0.0762 quickly. Probability ~25%.
• Stretch bull case: Acceptance above 0.0795 could extend to 0.0810–0.0815 (prior micro-supply). Probability ~15%.
• Decision: Buy the dip for a mean-reversion move; target the 50%–61.8% retrace of the latest downswing.

Market structure and regime

• Higher timeframe (daily): POPCAT has been in a persistent downtrend since early October (~0.24) with successive lower highs and lower lows. November saw acceleration of downside (notable 2025-11-12 blow-off to 0.209 intraday followed by heavy distribution and a weak close), then December transitioned into a grind lower from ~0.105 to mid/low 0.08s, culminating in a fresh low sweep today.
• Recent daily context (Dec 18–31):
  • 2025-12-18 daily low 0.07693 became a key reference support; subsequent sessions oscillated 0.078–0.084. Today broke that micro floor intraday to 0.07275, then rapidly reclaimed 0.074–0.075. This is a classic liquidity sweep/spring behavior at a prior structural low.
  • Volume has generally contracted into late December, but today’s selloff hour (16:00 UTC) printed an outsized spike—suggestive of capitulation and absorption near the lows.
• Intraday (hourly, 12/31):
  • A steady drift down from ~0.0780 in Asia/EU hours, accelerated into US afternoon to 0.07275, followed by immediate reclaim to 0.07500–0.07515 and a close back at 0.07494. The last five hours show a sequence of higher closes off the extreme low, implying responsive buying.

Support/resistance map (precision levels from the feed)

• Fresh support: 0.07275 (12/31 intraday low, liquidity sweep). Below that, air pockets to ~0.0714 (measured continuation from the micro channel) and then 0.069–0.070 (round-number magnet).
• Near-term supports now: 0.07370–0.07420 (reclaimed zone); 0.07505–0.07515 (hourly pivot where the bounce stalled—turns into a make-or-break intraday level upon retest).
• Immediate resistance/supply: 0.07690 (12/18 swing low, now resistance on first test); 0.0773 (38.2% retrace of 0.08406 → 0.07275); 0.0784 (50% retrace and mid-December micro value); 0.0795–0.0798 (61.8% retrace cluster/overhead supply); 0.0811–0.0815 (late-December pivot band); 0.0841 (12/29 high).

Trend, moving averages, and channels

• Daily moving averages (approx):
  • 20D SMA/EMA declining, likely centered ~0.092–0.095 from earlier December, well above spot—bearish regime confirmation.
  • 50D SMA ~0.12 area, also declining. No higher-timeframe bull signal yet.
• Linear regression/channel (daily): Price sits near/at the lower boundary of a descending channel from early December; mean-reversion typically targets the channel midline first (~0.078–0.079 short term), then upper band (~0.082–0.084) if momentum improves.

Oscillators and momentum

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid-30s (≈34–38), hovering just above oversold; this positioning often supports short, tradable bounces but not a trend reversal by itself.
• RSI (hourly, est.): Rebounded from sub-30 at the 16:00 UTC dump to the mid-40s; positive momentum divergence vs. price at the low—bullish for a 12–24h rebound.
• Stochastics (hourly): Crossed up from oversold; tends to be effective in range-bound/mean-reversion windows like late December.
• MACD (daily): Negative line below signal, but histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is waning; poised for a flattening phase.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish cross post-sweep; still below zero, so it’s a bounce inside a broader downtrend—consistent with a tactical long, not a swing reversal.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR (daily, est.): ~0.004–0.006 (5–8% of spot), consistent with recent ranges.
• ATR (hourly, est.): ~0.0013–0.0016; gives a plausible intraday swing from 0.0745 toward 0.0760–0.0765 on a single leg, and a two-leg advance toward 0.0773–0.0784 within 24h if buyers sustain control.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price at/near the lower band after an expansion lower; a tag and reclaim of the band typically mean-reverts toward the 20-period basis over multiple sessions. Near-term, aim for the lower-to-mid band region ≈0.077–0.079.
• Keltner Channels (hourly): Price moved from outside-lower to inside the band post-sweep; this re-entry frequently precedes a drift to the midline/upper band (aligns with 0.077–0.078 zone).
• Donchian (20-hour): Lower bound reset at 0.07275, upper bound ~0.081; the bounce target is the mid-band first (≈0.077–0.078).

Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume profile late December: Value concentrated 0.079–0.081, with a low-volume pocket 0.076–0.078. Today’s sweep pushed into that pocket and quickly reversed—classic vacuum fill dynamic. Expect price to try filling back upward into 0.076–0.078 before meeting meaningful supply near 0.079–0.081.
• OBV (intraday inference): The heavy 16:00 sellbar did not produce follow-through below 0.07275; subsequent candles showed net net-accumulation on smaller bars—suggestive of absorption.
• MFI (est., hourly): Rebounded from deeply oversold; often precedes a 1–3 session drift higher in a decelerating downtrend.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price is below the Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; the cloud is bearish. A mean-reversion to the Tenkan/Kijun zone (~0.079–0.081) is possible over days, but a full trend reversal would require multiple daily closes above 0.084–0.089. For the next 24h, treat Ichimoku as a headwind above ~0.079.

Fibonacci confluence

• From 12/29 high (0.08406) to 12/31 low (0.07275):
  • 38.2% = ~0.0773
  • 50% = ~0.0784
  • 61.8% = ~0.0795
• These align closely with prior micro SRs and the volume pocket boundaries; excellent profit-taking tiers on a relief bounce.
• From 11/30 local high (0.10994) to 12/18 low (0.07693): price has failed multiple times at 38.2–61.8% (0.089–0.097), confirming the broader downtrend. Hence, treat 0.079–0.081 as near-term only.

Pattern recognition and Wyckoff read

• Descending channel since early December with today’s action depicting a Wyckoff “spring”/liquidity sweep below the Dec 18 low, immediately followed by a reclaim. That often transitions to an “automatic rally” back toward broken supports—precisely our 0.077–0.079 zones.
• Candlestick character: Long lower wick on the dump hour, followed by small-bodied consolidation candles with higher closes—bullish micro-structure for 12–24h.

VWAP and execution context

• Session/rolling VWAP (12/31 intraday, est.): around 0.075–0.0753. We are currently just below/near this. A reclaim and hold above VWAP would add fuel to a push into 0.077s. First pullback into 0.0745–0.0748 is the attractive risk-defined entry with VWAP reclaim as confirmation.

Probabilistic scenarios (next 24h)

1. Base case (≈60%): Dip to 0.0743–0.0747, then advance to 0.0773; momentum continuation to 0.0784 possible. Sellers reappear near 0.079.
2. Bear continuation (≈25%): Failure to reclaim/hold 0.0758–0.0762 leads to a rollover; if 0.0737 fails, a second sweep of 0.0727 occurs. Absorption likely recurs, but targets would be delayed.
3. Stretch bull case (≈15%): Strong reclaim above 0.0795 (61.8% retrace), thin air to 0.081–0.0815; unlikely without a catalyst, but not impossible given late-session/year dynamics.

Risk and trade framing

• Rationale for long:
  • Fresh sweep of a well-defined low (0.07693) with immediate reclaim—a mean-reversion set-up supported by oscillator resets and volume absorption.
  • Convergent targets from Fibonacci (38.2–61.8% at 0.0773/0.0784/0.0795) and prior micro SRs.
• Invalidation: Clean breakdown and acceptance below 0.0737, and particularly below 0.0727. Those would negate the spring, opening 0.071–0.070.
• Proposed tactical stop (for risk control; not part of the output fields): ~0.0724 (just beyond the sweep low), yielding a reward:risk ≈ (0.0784–0.0746)/(0.0746–0.0724) ≈ 1.7:1 to the base TP, and >2:1 if scaling into 0.0795.

Synthesis and final call

• The broader trend remains bearish, but the microstructure favors a rebound over the next 24 hours. The highest-odds trade is a tactical long on a slight pullback into 0.0746 with a take-profit at the 50% retracement (0.0784). If momentum remains strong, partials could trail toward 0.0795, but the 0.0784 print is the statistically clean exit given clustering of resistance.

24h price path expectation

• Early session: small dip into 0.0743–0.0748; watch for quick absorption.
• Mid session: push through 0.0758/0.0762 → test 0.0773.
• Late session: tag 0.0784; stall/rotate unless volume expands materially.