POPCAT Slips Back Under Key Supply: Bearish Retest Setup Points to Another Leg Down

Market snapshot (POPCAT)

• Current price: 0.04682
• Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-26 → 2026-02-23) + intraday hourly sequence for 2026-02-23.
• Regime: Clear higher-timeframe downtrend since early January; short-term attempting a base but still weak.

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1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily trend (dominant timeframe)

• From ~0.1106 (2026-01-04 close) to ~0.04682 (now): ~-58% drawdown.
• Series of lower highs / lower lows:
  • Lower highs: ~0.1106 → 0.1071 → ~0.0949 → ~0.0610 (2/14 spike) → ~0.0528 area.
  • Lower lows: ~0.0738 → 0.0722 → 0.0676 → 0.0561 → 0.0459 (today intraday).
• Conclusion: Primary trend = bearish. Any long is counter-trend unless there is a confirmed reversal structure.

Intraday (hourly on 2026-02-23)

• Day opened near 0.04896, sold off hard to 0.04595 (capitulation-like sweep), then mean-reverted to 0.04827, and drifted back to 0.0468.
• This is characteristic of breakdown → bounce → fade (bearish absorption at higher levels).
• The rebound failed to reclaim/hold 0.048+ into the close, suggesting weak demand and sellers defending rebounds.

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2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Key supports

• 0.0455–0.0460: Today’s intraday low region (0.04595). First support; if broken, the market likely searches lower for liquidity.
• 0.0440–0.0450 (derived zone): Not printed in the provided candles, but typical next step after a fresh low is a volatility extension into the next psychological/round zone. (Use as scenario support, not a confirmed historical level.)

Key resistances (more reliable)

• 0.0482–0.0490:
  • Daily 2/23 open ~0.04892 and hourly high ~0.04846.
  • Also aligns with 2/22 close 0.048918.
  • This is immediate supply / failed-retest zone.
• 0.0503–0.0521:
  • Cluster of daily closes/opens from 2/18–2/21.
  • Major “decision band”; reclaiming this would be the first meaningful sign of short-term trend change.

Implication: Current price (0.0468) sits below the nearest supply (0.0482–0.0490). In bearish regimes, price often retests resistance then continues down.

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3) Momentum & mean-reversion (indicator-style reasoning)

(Exact indicator values like RSI/ MACD are not computable perfectly here without running full rolling calculations, but we can still infer their state reliably from sequence/structure.)

RSI-style read (price behavior proxy)

• Persistent decline with limited multi-day follow-through rallies implies RSI has been spending more time in weak / bearish ranges.
• The 2/14 vertical pump to 0.06095 followed by immediate collapse to 0.05328 is typical of a bull trap, often resetting RSI upward briefly but not establishing a new bullish range.
• Today’s breakdown to 0.04595 suggests momentum remains negative, even if short-term oversold bounces occur.

MACD-style read (trend/momentum proxy)

• After a long decline, MACD typically stays negative; bounces (like 2/20 to 0.05205) were not sustained. This implies bearish MACD baseline with only shallow countertrend impulses.

Moving-average regime (conceptual)

• With price down massively from early Jan, price is almost certainly below medium/long MAs (20/50D).
• When price is below falling MAs, rallies into those MAs tend to be sold (dynamic resistance).

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4) Volume & participation

Daily volume context

• Large spikes occurred during big moves:
  • 1/02 very high volume on rally (0.09386 close).
  • 2/06 high volume on rebound day (close 0.05196) after washout.
  • 2/14 breakout day (close 0.06095) also big volume, immediately faded next day.
• Today (2/23) daily volume ~18.8M is meaningful and came with a down day (close below open). That’s consistent with distribution / renewed selling pressure.

Intraday volume on 2/23

• Largest hourly volume around 01:00 during the sharp selloff (capitulation). That often creates a bounce, but unless subsequent hours build higher highs and hold reclaimed levels, the bounce is often short-covering, not accumulation.

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5) Volatility & range analysis

• Recent daily ranges are wide for this price level (meme-like behavior). Today’s low-to-high intraday span (approx 0.04595 → 0.04897 earlier) signals elevated volatility.
• In downtrends, elevated volatility often biases to the downside (volatility expansions break supports more often than they break resistances).

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6) Pattern/Fractal recognition

Bear flag / descending channel behavior

• The broader move since 2/14 resembles:
  • Impulse up (2/14) → sharp rejection (2/15) → choppy drift lower → support break (2/23 low sweep).
• This is consistent with a distribution top and continuation lower rather than a clean reversal base.

Failed reclaim (retest failure)

• 2/22 closed at 0.048918.
• 2/23 opened ~0.048915, then lost 0.048–0.049 quickly and spent most of the session below it.
• That’s a classic failed hold of prior close, reinforcing that 0.0482–0.0490 is now resistance.

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7) Scenario-based 24h outlook (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest lower

• Expect price to retest 0.0482–0.0490 (supply) or fail earlier, then rotate back down.
• Likely path: 0.0468 → 0.0478/0.0485 (retest) → 0.0460 → potential extension toward 0.0450.

Alternative (lower probability): relief bounce becomes reversal attempt

• If price reclaims 0.0490 and then holds above 0.0485 for several hours with increasing volume, the market may attempt 0.0503–0.0521.
• This would weaken the short thesis; shorts would need tighter risk control above that band.

Net bias for 24h: Down / range-to-down, with bounces likely sold into resistance.

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Trade Plan (spot/derivatives logic)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale: Primary downtrend + failed reclaim of 0.0489 area + breakdown sweep to new local low + rebounds being sold.

Optimal open (entry)

• Prefer to short on a retest of resistance rather than market-selling the lows.
• Open Price (optimal): 0.04840
  • Inside the 0.0482–0.0490 supply zone.
  • If price reaches there within the next 24h, it offers better R:R than shorting at 0.0468.

Take-profit / Close price

• Close Price (take profit): 0.04560
  • Near today’s liquidity sweep zone (0.04595) but slightly below to account for stop-hunts and to improve fill probability.

(Risk note you’d normally define a stop-loss above resistance—e.g., above ~0.0492/0.0500—but you didn’t request it explicitly.)