Pump.fun Price Analysis Powered by AI

Mean-Reversion Rebound: Targeting First Supply Into 0.0037–0.0038 on Pump.fun (PUMP36507)

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish rebound within a broader medium-term downtrend. Expect a mean-reversion push toward the 20-day moving average before overhead supply caps price.
Setup: Long on a minor pullback with tight invalidation below the recent higher low cluster; take profit into first major resistance.
Expected 24h range: 0.00324 – 0.00382 (approx. 1x ATR from spot), with upside skew if 0.00352 breaks on volume.

Regime: After a September blow-off top (high ~0.00883 on 2025-09-14) and an October washout (intraday low 0.00113 on 2025-10-10), price has been in a controlled downtrend, transitioning into basing behavior in mid-November.
Recent structure: Two-step reversal sequence:
- 2025-11-17 close 0.002883 (new low close),
- 2025-11-18 printed a lower intraday low 0.002774 but closed higher at 0.003131 (hammer-type rejection),
- 2025-11-19 continuation higher to 0.003192 close.
- Current price 0.003402 is preserving higher lows vs. 11/18–19, suggesting a short-term bullish inflection.

SMA20 ≈ 0.00385 (avg of last 20 closes). Price below SMA20 but reverting upward; typical mean-reversion magnet.
SMA50 (rough) > 0.005 (elevated by September rally). Price well below SMA50, confirming medium-term downtrend; cap for multi-day advances.
EMA8/EMA21 (qualitative): EMA8 is curling up; EMA21 still flat-to-down. A short-term bullish crossover attempt is plausible in 1–3 sessions if price holds above 0.00335–0.00340.
Takeaway: Short-term upside room to SMA20; medium-term trend still down, so treat as countertrend/mean-reversion rather than trend continuation.

RSI(14) (estimate): low-40s, rising from oversold. No bearish divergence on the latest rebound; momentum tailwind for a 24h push.
Stochastic: Emerging from oversold; room to travel before overbought. Supports near-term pops.
MACD (12/26/9) (qualitative): Still below zero line, histogram contracting toward positive. A daily bullish cross is feasible soon; signals upside follow-through if volume cooperates.

ATR(14) ≈ 0.00042. 1x ATR envelopes from spot 0.00340 imply 0.00298–0.00382; 2x ATR 0.00256–0.00424.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~0.00385, lower ~0.00285, upper ~0.00485. Price rebounded from near the lower band and is progressing toward the mid-band (first logical target).

Volume cooled from October/early November spikes, now moderate. The 11/18 hammer on increased activity suggests responsive dip-buying interest near 0.0028–0.0030.
OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing after a prolonged bleed; marginal turn supports the rebound case but not a trend shift yet.

Immediate support: 0.00319–0.00313 (11/18–19 closes/opens cluster), then 0.00288/0.00277 (hammer low zone). Losing 0.00313 would weaken the rebound thesis; losing 0.00288 invalidates it.
Near resistance: 0.00347–0.00352 (Oct 16–17 pivot zone), then 0.00376–0.00383 (local supply and 1x ATR high), and heavier supply 0.00410–0.00420 (also near Fib 23.6%).
Supply blocks: 0.00410–0.00460 is a thick supply band created by early November distribution.

Double-bottom variant: 0.00288 (11/17 close) and 0.00277 (11/18 low) with a higher close—a common reversal blueprint. Confirmation would be a daily close above 0.00352, opening room to 0.00376/0.00383.
Descending channel (implicit since late September): Current price is lifting from the lower rail toward the midline; midline aligns with ~0.0037–0.0039.
Candles: 11/18 hammer + 11/19 follow-through = short-term bullish sequence.

23.6%: ~0.00420 (aligns with strong supply/resistance cluster).
38.2%: ~0.00509, 50%: ~0.00580, 61.8%: ~0.00652.
Implication: In a 24h window, 23.6% (~0.0042) is the highest realistic stretch target; base case aims below that into first resistance bands.

Price below Cloud; Cloud ahead likely bearish/flat. Kijun around ~0.0039; Tenkan near ~0.00345. Current price around Tenkan: a hold above it typically begets a Kijun test (~0.0038–0.0039).

From 11/18 reversal, intraday VWAPs likely cluster ~0.00330–0.00340. A pullback buy near ~0.00333 aligns with anchored VWAP support and keeps risk contained.

Z-score vs 20D mean: (0.00340 − 0.00385) / ~0.0004 to 0.0005 ≈ −0.9 to −1.1. Crossing back toward zero favors a drift to the mean (SMA20) before encountering supply.

Base case (55%): Gradual grind higher, test 0.00352. If cleared on volume, extension to 0.00370–0.00380. Likely intraday high caps near ~0.00382 (1x ATR above spot and just below prior supply).
Bear case (25%): Failure to hold 0.00333–0.00335; retest 0.00319–0.00313. A daily close under 0.00313 reopens 0.00288–0.00277.
Stretch bull (20%): Strong momentum/volume break through 0.00380; quick probe into 0.00400–0.00415, but odds modest within a single session.

Direction: Long, leaning on the 11/18 reversal base with mean-reversion to SMA20.
Entry: Limit buy on a shallow dip to ~0.00333 (near anchored VWAP/mini demand). Alternative momentum entry: on a confirmed break >0.00352 with rising volume (not the primary number in the order fields).
Profit target (24h): 0.00378 (just beneath the 0.00376–0.00383 supply band and ~1x ATR top from spot).
Invalidation (stop, discretionary): 0.00312 (below the 0.00313 cluster). Risk ≈ 0.00021 vs reward ≈ 0.00045 (R ≈ 2.1) from a 0.00333 fill.

This remains a countertrend long within a larger downtrend; avoid chasing if volume is anemic near 0.00352.
Partial profits earlier at 0.00352–0.00360 are reasonable if momentum stalls, reattempt remainder toward 0.00378.
If 0.00312 breaks on closing basis, the setup is invalid and the path of least resistance shifts back to 0.00288.

Intraday low bias: 0.00324–0.00330 if dip-buyers defend.
Intraday high bias: 0.00370–0.00382 contingent on a 0.00352 break.
Probable close: 0.00360–0.00372 (if momentum persists), otherwise 0.00345–0.00355 (if range-bound below 0.00352).

Action: Buy (Long position).
Rationale: Post-hammer follow-through, improving momentum, room to the 20D mean, and defined risk below nearby structural support. Take profit set into first resistance band to respect the broader downtrend and supply overhead.