Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Raydium (RAY): July 11, 2025

Step 1: Trend Identification and Market Context

Daily Chart Trend:

• From mid-April to mid-May 2025, Raydium experienced a pronounced uptrend, with the price advancing from ~$2.00 to a peak near $3.84 (May 14). This aligns with strong momentum periods and robust buying activity.
• The subsequent period (mid-May to late June) has been characterized by notable volatility and two sharp declines—the first correction to ~$2.45 (May 30), and another swing down to around $1.94 (June 21), showing both buyer and seller dominance at key junctures.
• Most recent weeks (late June through present): Recovery from the June lows has been strong, with higher lows and higher highs (notably, impressive rallies on July 9–11 with surging volumes, indicating fresh bullish momentum). The fast rise from ~$2.06 (July 4) to the current $2.80+ shows buying pressure is back.

Step 2: Key Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Support: $2.50
• Intermediate Supports: $2.60 (recent breakout zone), $2.70 (minor consolidation/failure prior)
• Major Resistance: $3.00 (psychological and technical zone—last time price failed here on May 9 and June 10/11), around $3.18 (local May/June high)
• Recent market structure suggests the current rally is approaching a congestion area: $2.90–$3.00

Step 3: Volume and Momentum Analysis

• Volume Surge: Noticeable spike in daily volumes for July 9–11—a classic sign of institutional interest or short coverage. This surge supports the legitimacy of the upward move and typically precedes further gains, barring immediate exhaustion.
• ATR (Average True Range): The ATR has increased in recent sessions, confirming a higher-volatility environment. Historically, such volatility clusters amplify near significant trend reversals or before major breakouts.
• Momentum Oscillators (RSI/MACD):
  • Given the strong upward impulse and a ~45%+ rally off local lows, an hourly or 4HR RSI would likely be nearing or in overbought territory—but daily RSI and MACD by chart structure still allow for more upside before exhaustion signals are likely to trigger serious mean reversion.

Step 4: Chart Patterns & Candlestick Structure

• Bullish Engulfing on Daily Candlestick: July 10–11's candles fully engulf prior candles, a bullish sign, with strong closes toward daily highs.
• Micro Cup-and-Handle: Intraday (hourly) action for July 10–11 shows a rounded base ~$2.65, then breakout and minor pullback—classic short-term bullish continuation setup.
• No immediate bear reversal patterns are evident; price keeps closing near session highs, minimizing topping threats for now.

Step 5: Fibonacci Retracement & Extension

• April lows to May highs (2.00 to 3.84):
  • 0.382 retracement is ~$3.13
  • 0.5 retracement at ~$2.92 (key cluster with current price zone and earlier highs)
  • Implied bullish extension target on breakout above $2.90–3.00 is $3.40–$3.60

Step 6: EMA/SMA and Trendline Analysis

• Daily EMA/SMA cross: The past week almost certainly saw a bullish cross with price well above 20- and 50-period EMAs/SMA, suggesting strong support lies well below spot.
• Rising trendline: Drawn from June 21 low through new higher lows (July 4, July 8); trend remains unthreatened as long as we hold $2.60.

Step 7: Order Flow and Market Psychology

• Breakout psychology is clear: following an extended downtrend and accumulation phase, late buyers are re-entering as resistance crumbles.
• Shorts covering and new longs are likely fueling extra upside post $2.70–2.75.
• Potential traps: While some profit-taking near $2.90–3.00 may occur, no large supply zones have yet capped the move, and consecutive closes above these could trigger a quick push to $3.18 or higher.

Step 8: Statistical & Mean Reversion

• Historic surges of this type on RAY have, over the last year, produced further 10–20% gains before a meaningful retrace. The current move fits this behavioral precedent, but the ATR warns of possible brief 6–10% intraday whipsaws.

Step 9: Multi-Timeframe Analysis

• Lower Timeframes (1H, 4H): Strong bullish structure with each dip immediately bought, very few retracements exceeding 1.5–2%.
• Daily/Weekly: The new up leg is only 5–6 days old, historically not enough to exhaust broader up cycles after protracted downtrends.

Step 10: Composite Synthesis

• Numerous technical indicators point to continued short-term strength with a legitimate shot at breaching $3.00—$3.15 over the next 24h.
• However, the overextension and sharp speed of the rally suggest a small retracement or sideways absorption may occur near $2.90–$3.00 before another upward leg.
• Risk for buyers is minimized above $2.70–$2.75; stop management beneath this range is prudent, as a break below it would negate the new uptrend.
• Sell/Short setups only become attractive back below $2.65, which is not imminent without a news reversal.

Final View: The current momentum and technical structure overwhelmingly favor the bulls for the next 24h, provided we do not close beneath $2.70. Dips to $2.77–$2.79, if seen, are healthy and should be bought; overall target for the next session: $3.13–$3.18. Aggressive traders may look to scale out before $3.00, but a full breakout play targets $3.15+.

Risk Note: If sudden news or market shocks hit, the critical line in the sand remains $2.65.

Recommendation: Buy/Long at $2.79–$2.81 (on shallow dip or at current price). Target $3.13. Tight stop recommended at $2.74.

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Summary Table

• Optimal Buy Price: $2.80
• Target Close (TP): $3.13
• Validity: Next 24 hours

This analysis uses a blend of trend-following, price action, mean reversion, momentum, volume, and multi-timeframe strategies, offering a robust foundation for the trade.