Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Raydium (RAY) – 2025-07-12

1. Trend Analysis (Daily & Intraday)

Trend (Daily Chart)

• April’s Strong Rally: RAY experienced a powerful rally from $1.90 on Apr 14 to a swing high of $3.84 on May 14, representing an ~100% move in a month.
• Intermediate Top & Downtrend (Mid-May to late June): After topping in mid-May, RAY formed a lower high/lower low sequence, retracing over 40% and bottoming at around $1.84 on June 22 before stabilizing and grinding higher.
• Current Recovery (Late June – July): Since late June, RAY shows a rounded V-bottom, reclaiming $2.60+ after a big-volume up bar on June 19. Recent daily bars indicate a possible new uptrend starting, but momentum weakened throughout Jul 10-12.

Intraday Action (July 11–12)

• Failed Follow-Through: A rapid push to $2.9305 (July 11) faded to $2.6089 by July 12. During July 12, price moved up to $2.7249, then fell aggressively below prior lows, bouncing from $2.52–2.53, then retesting $2.66–2.64, and closing weakly at $2.61.
• Reversal Candle Structure (July 12, 12:00–16:00): Long lower shadows denote buying interest at $2.53, but rallies are sold into, producing lower highs.

2. Support and Resistance (S/R) Mapping

• Immediate Resistance: $2.66–2.70 (local top ranges), then $2.73–2.76 (yesterday’s highs), followed by $2.93 (major top).
• Immediate Support: $2.53 (intraday double bottom July 12), then $2.50, $2.41, $2.30 (recent swing lows).

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike on Big Moves: Major reversals have high relative volume. Biggest volume in recent days occurred on June 19, and again near the $2.93 pop on July 11—a blow-off with subsequent heavy selling.
• Intraday Dip Buying: Strong volume on the $2.53 recovery today, but diminished as price tried to rally (signs of weak follow-through).

4. Volatility & Momentum Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Daily ATR had been expanding into late June and early July, suggesting increased volatility. Currently, 24h volatility >$0.18 (6% range), showing a choppy, indecisive environment.
• Short-term Momentum: MACD (visually approximated) had a bullish cross late June, but histograms now flatten. RSI (estimated) is near 55—neither overbought nor oversold. Stochastics suggest a recent overbought reading, now crossing down.

5. Candlestick & Price Patterns

• Double Top (July 11): Price rejected at $2.93 with a quick selloff. Lower highs have formed on subsequent attempts, indicating topside exhaustion.
• Bearish Engulfing Intraday: July 12, 11:00 to 12:00, strong sell candle engulfs prior range.
• Descending Channel/Range Formation: Lower lows and lower highs seen since the $2.93 peak.
• V-Reversal Pattern (in June): The mid-term reversal pattern has completed, now possibly entering a consolidation or minor downtrend.

6. Moving Averages (MA)

• 20-Day MA: Likely near $2.45—recent price action has reclaimed above this level, but with weak conviction.
• 50-Day MA: Approx $2.75–2.80—recently rejected near this region, adding technical resistance.

7. Fibonacci Retracement (Major Swings)

• From $1.84 (June low) to $2.93 (July high):
  • 38.2%: $2.51
  • 50%: $2.38
  • 61.8%: $2.25
• RAY just bounced at 38.2% retracement ($2.53). Failure to hold this level implies a move toward $2.38 next.

8. Market Psychology & Order Flow

• Hesitant Bulls: Buyers are stepping in on dips, but failing to reclaim previous highs, indicating a shift in control.
• Aggressive Sellers Above $2.70: Order flow suggests stops are being run below $2.55, but buy pressure is not sustained.
• Distribution Signs: High-volume top at $2.93, followed by consistent selling.

9. Relative Strength vs Recent Market (if cross-check allowed)

• While not directly in the data, RAY is lagging previous altcoin market beta and underperforming.

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Synthesis & Next 24h Prediction

• Bias: Short-term bearish to neutral. The rebound from $2.53 lacked follow-through, and price failed to reclaim $2.70. Volatility remained high but skewed to the downside. Most technical tools suggest RAY is in a minor downtrend or setting up for further consolidation below key resistances.
• Trade Plan: A short/sell position appears optimal, ideally on a weak rally attempt ($2.62–2.64 area). Target a drop back to test $2.53, with potential for continuation toward $2.41 if momentum builds.
• Risk: A convincing reclaim and close above $2.70 invalidates the setup, so stop-loss should be just above this level.

Conclusion

• Preferred Action: Sell / Short Position
• Open Price: $2.62 (right after minor bounce)
• Target Price: $2.53 (first support), with runners toward $2.41 on extended weakness.

Summary: Raydium shows exhaustion after a failed rally, with sellers taking control and a confirmed lower high/lower low structure. Short-term trading favors selling rallies rather than buying dips, especially as support at $2.53 looks likely to be retested.

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