RAY Relief Bounce Into Supply: High Odds of a Fade Back Toward the $1.00 Pivot

Market context (multi‑timeframe)

Current price: $1.0346

1) Higher timeframe (daily) structure

• Primary trend (since late Oct): Clear downtrend from ~1.80 → ~0.85 into mid/late Dec (series of lower highs/lower lows).
• Relief rally (early Jan): Sharp rebound 0.88 → 1.24 (Jan 1–6). That move created a new swing high but failed to reverse the larger downtrend, because subsequent price action rolled over and broke back down.
• Recent impulse (Jan 13–20): From ~1.24 down to 0.9599 low (Jan 20). This leg reasserts bearish control and puts the market back into a “sell rallies” regime.
• Today’s daily candle (Jan 21, partial but near close in your feed): Open ~0.961 → High ~1.0365 → Close ~1.0346. This is a strong green recovery day after a selloff, but it is still inside the broader corrective/bearish context.

Key daily zones (S/R):

• Support: 0.96 (yesterday’s low / today’s open area), then 0.93–0.90, then 0.85.
• Resistance: 1.05–1.07 (recent breakdown area), then 1.12–1.16 (multiple daily closes/inflections), then 1.20–1.24 (swing zone).

Interpretation: the daily chart shows a bounce from support, but into nearby overhead supply (1.05–1.16). That favors mean‑reversion up into resistance and then rejection rather than a clean trend reversal in 24h.

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2) Intraday (hourly) behavior: momentum + order‑flow hints

From the hourly series:

• Early hours: price based around 0.99 → 0.97, then impulsive rally around 14:00–15:00 to ~1.03.
• Mid session: sharp dip 16:00–17:00 down to ~0.976, then strong reclaim back above 1.03 by 19:00–21:00.

This is typical of a short-covering / liquidation rebound after a daily low. These moves often fade once price reaches the first major resistance band.

Micro structure:

• 19:00–21:00: higher highs/higher closes; bullish intraday momentum.
• However, price is now extended relative to the day’s base (0.97–1.00) and sitting just under a psychologically important 1.05 area.

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3) Trend indicators (practical inferences from the data)

Moving averages (qualitative, based on levels)

• With the daily close recently near 0.96–1.06 and many prior closes around 1.10–1.15, the shorter MAs (5–10D) are likely sloping down and acting as resistance.
• The bounce to 1.03 is likely still below/near declining intermediate MAs (20D), which increases odds of a pullback after a relief bounce.

MACD (regime inference)

• Given the sharp selloff Jan 13–20, daily MACD would be bearish and below zero.
• Today’s bounce likely improves histogram (less negative) but not enough for a clean bullish crossover within 24 hours.

Implication: momentum is improving intraday, but the dominant daily momentum remains bearish-to-neutral, favoring sell at resistance setups.

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4) Volatility + range analysis

ATR / true range (observable)

• Recent daily ranges are meaningful (e.g., Jan 20 high 1.0467 to low 0.9599 ≈ 8–9%).
• Today’s range (0.9610 → 1.0365) ≈ 7.9%.

So a realistic next‑24h swing can be several percent, and both a wick up into resistance and a retrace are plausible.

Bollinger-style logic (mean reversion)

• After a downside push to 0.96, price snapping back to 1.03 suggests a reversion toward the mean.
• In these environments, the first mean-reversion target is often met quickly; then price oscillates or retraces toward the mid-range.

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5) Price action patterns

• V‑reversal / dead‑cat bounce risk: The sequence “selloff to new local low (0.9599) → strong green day reclaiming above 1.00” often attracts late buyers; but without higher‑timeframe confirmation, it commonly becomes a lower high.
• Resistance confluence: 1.03–1.05 is not just a round number; it’s also close to the prior daily close cluster (1.02–1.07 area) where breakdown occurred.

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6) Support/Resistance map & trade location

Nearest resistance overhead:

• 1.036–1.05: immediate supply; if price spikes here, it often meets sellers.
• 1.10–1.16: stronger supply; more likely requires multiple attempts.

Nearest support below:

• 1.00–0.99: intraday pivot and psychological handle.
• 0.976–0.97: intraday swing low area.
• 0.96: major local low.

Given current price 1.0346, the better R:R is to sell into/near resistance with targets back to pivots.

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7) Next 24 hours: probabilistic path

Base case (higher probability):

• Price makes a push/attempt toward 1.04–1.06, then fades.
• Over 24h, expect rotation back toward 1.00 and possibly 0.98–0.99 if risk-off resumes.

Bull case (lower probability):

• Clean break and hold above 1.06, then extension toward 1.10–1.12.

Bear case (tail risk):

• Failure at ~1.04 and rapid drop below 1.00, retesting 0.97–0.96.

Net: despite the intraday upswing, the broader context + resistance proximity favors down/sideways after a final push.

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Conclusion (actionable)

The market is in a relief-bounce phase inside a broader downtrend, now pressing into near-term resistance. Optimal edge is to Sell (short) into strength rather than chase the bounce.

Trade idea: short around the 1.04–1.05 supply with a take-profit back to the 1.00 pivot (and potentially deeper if momentum turns).