SAND coils after the October shock: dip-buys favored for a push to 0.222–0.224 within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a well-defined 0.206–0.222 range; base case is a push toward the range highs (0.222–0.224) with elevated probability of a test of R2/pivot confluence around 0.222–0.223.
• Plan: Buy the dip near the 20‑day mean/short-term support (0.213–0.2145) targeting 0.223±0.001, with risk managed under 0.209–0.210 (described below). Alternative momentum add-on above 0.2192 if breakout accelerates.

1. Price action and regime context

• Big regime shift on 2025-10-10: flash crash to 0.1154, followed by swift V‑type rebound to 0.2332 and then a multi-session rectangular consolidation between ~0.206 and ~0.222.
• Current price 0.2151 is mid-to-upper half of the post-crash box, pressing toward the upper boundary after a series of higher lows (0.1918 → 0.2004 → 0.1983 → 0.2038 → 0.2136). This is constructive for a continuation probe of resistance.
• Last 24h intraday (hourly) structure shows: shallow pullbacks, higher lows, and steady grind from ~0.209 to ~0.215 on increasing participation during up-hours (notably 17:00 UTC bar). The tape suggests dip-buying interest into minor supports.

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• Short-term trend (1D, last 2–3 weeks): Sideways-to-up inside a range; micro uptrend of lows as above. Price now sits above the 20‑day SMA (see below), which often precedes a drift toward upper Bollinger.
• Intermediate term (1–2 months): Still below pre-crash MAs (50D/100D), so the bigger picture is corrective/bearish. Expect resistance to be respected on first tests unless momentum expands.
• Hourly trend: Rising channel over the last day with higher lows around 0.211 → 0.212 → 0.213, and pushes to 0.215–0.216. This timeframe is leading the daily and supports a modest 24h upside skew.

3. Moving averages

• SMA20 (daily): ≈ 0.2108 (computed from the last 20 closes post-crash). Price at 0.2151 is ≈ +2.0% above the mean → bullish short-term tilt; mean reversion favors tests of upper band when above SMA20.
• SMA50 (daily): Qualitatively still higher (~0.27±) from the pre-crash regime; price is below it → intermediate trend still down; supply likely increases on approaches to 0.226–0.233.
• EMA cluster (9/12/26, qualitative): Price has reclaimed the fast EMAs; 9>12 and 12 flattening under 26, implying a small bullish MACD posture but not a full intermediate reversal.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 57: Neutral-to-bullish, moving away from midline. Not overbought; room to the upside before 60–65 resistance zone.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely modestly positive after reclaiming fast EMAs; signal lines near zero. This aligns with a grind higher rather than a vertical breakout absent fresh volume.
• Hourly RSI is hovering high-50s/low-60s intraday, matching the slow “stair-step” higher.

5. Volatility and expected move

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.009 (0.9 cents). From 0.215, a 1×ATR upside path projects 0.224, downside 0.206. This brackets our tactical target zone and the lower range support nicely.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.2108; estimated σ ≈ 0.009–0.010. Upper band ≈ 0.229–0.231; lower ≈ 0.191–0.193. With price above mid-band and rising, probabilistic drift is toward the upper half of the envelope.

6. Market structure, support/resistance, and liquidity

• Supports: 0.213–0.214 (intraday shelf near SMA20/Tenkan), 0.209–0.210 (hourly demand, inflection), 0.206 (range floor), then 0.200–0.201 (S2 area, pain point if range breaks).
• Resistances: 0.2165 (pivot R1 neighborhood), 0.219–0.222 (range top and key Fib; heavy), 0.226–0.233 (post-crash swing highs cluster including 0.2332).
• Range characterization: 0.206–0.222 box; price mid- to upper-third. Tactic: buy pullbacks within upper half with stop under mid-box to target range highs.

7. Fibonacci and confluences

• Crash leg reference (Oct 9 close 0.2659 → Oct 10 low 0.1154):
  • 61.8%: ≈ 0.2084 (reclaimed and held repeatedly → support).
  • 70.7% (less common but useful): ≈ 0.2220 → aligns with range top.
  • 78.6%: ≈ 0.2337 → aligns with the failed mid-Oct retest high (0.2332).
• Takeaway: 0.222 is a “magnet + lid” level; first test likely sticky, but reachable in a normal 1×ATR day.

8. Ichimoku (9/26/52)

• Tenkan (9): ≈ (HH+LL)/2 over last 9 ≈ (0.2265 + 0.1983)/2 ≈ 0.2124.
• Kijun (26): dominated by extremes 0.333 (Sep 13) and 0.115 (Oct 10) → ≈ 0.224±.
• State: Price > Tenkan but < Kijun; TK cross likely neutral/lightly bearish. This is typical of early recovery phases—supports near-term upside toward Kijun (~0.224) but warns of supply at/above it.

9. Pivot points (Classic, using 10/28 H/L/C)

• PP ≈ 0.21157; R1 ≈ 0.21642; R2 ≈ 0.22259; S1 ≈ 0.20540; S2 ≈ 0.20055.
• Price is oscillating around/above R1 and eyeing R2. R2 ≈ 0.2226 aligns with Fib 70.7% and range ceiling.

10. Volume and participation

• Post-crash, volumes normalized to 40–70M/day vs 177M on crash day. Recent sessions around ~48–60M with occasional spikes.
• Intraday, the 17:00 UTC bar showed a notable burst as price pushed to 0.215+, signaling responsive buyers into strength.

11. Pattern work

• Rectangle/box consolidation after a V-reversal is common. Boxes often resolve in the direction of the preceding impulse (up off the low), but first, price tends to fully explore the box. We are in the upper half, favoring a run to the top of the box (0.222–0.224) before any decision.
• Micro ascending channel on the hourly within the box—a classic “coil” indicating controlled bids.

12. Statistical framing and probability

• With ATR ≈ 0.009 and upper-resistance confluence at ~0.222–0.223, a 24h test is statistically reasonable (1×ATR move). Downside 1×ATR would revisit 0.206, but supports stack above that (0.213–0.214, 0.209–0.210), increasing the odds that pullbacks stall before the floor.
• RSI(14) at ~57, above the 50 midline, historically correlates with slightly positive next‑day drift in range-bound regimes.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• A decisive hourly close back below ~0.209–0.210 would negate the micro uptrend and re-open the range floor (0.206). A daily close <0.206 would reintroduce the post-crash downside tail risk.
• If 0.219–0.222 rejects sharply on rising volume with bearish divergence on hourly RSI, expect a rotation back to 0.213–0.214.

14. Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Primary tactic: Mean‑reversion long within the upper half of the consolidation, aiming for the confluence zone.
  • Entry: Buy limit on a shallow dip toward 0.2138–0.2145 (around SMA20/Tenkan/intraday shelf). Optimal single print: 0.2143.
  • Target: 0.223–0.224 (R2/Fib 70.7%/range top). Suggested take-profit: 0.2238.
  • Stop (risk control, not part of the order output fields): 0.2095 (below hourly demand and under the 0.210 pivot), yielding approx R:R ~ 1.9:1 from 0.2143 to 0.2238 vs stop at 0.2095.
• Alternative momentum add-on: If price lifts through 0.2192–0.2195 with rising volume, consider a breakout scalp to 0.2225–0.2240; keep a tight trailing stop under 0.2175.

15. Bottom line

• Multiple tools converge: price above SMA20 and Tenkan, RSI ~57, hourly higher lows, and a well-defined confluence target at 0.222–0.223 (R2 + Fib + range top). Intermediate MAs remain overhead, limiting upside beyond 0.224 without fresh participation. Net: bullish bias for a measured, non-explosive advance to resistance in the next 24 hours.

Decision: Buy (Long)

• Rationale: Short-term momentum positive within a bounded range; favorable location to buy a dip toward the mean with defined risk; high-probability retest of 0.222–0.224.