Tradzar
The Sandbox Price Analysis Powered by AI
SAND Explodes on Breakout Volume — Expect Volatile Consolidation, Then a Retest of 0.16
SAND (The Sandbox) — 24H Technical Outlook (based on provided daily + hourly OHLCV)
1) Market context & regime (multi-timeframe)
Longer swing (daily, Oct 20 → Jan 17):
- Price has been in a persistent downtrend from the ~0.21–0.22 region (Oct) into mid-Dec lows near 0.109–0.117.
- Since late Dec / early Jan, SAND formed a base around ~0.11–0.12 and began to lift.
- Today’s candle (Jan 17) is a large impulsive expansion: daily range 0.124 → 0.1599 high → 0.1508 close with very large volume (310M) relative to prior days. That’s a classic breakout / squeeze release type day.
Short-term (hourly, Jan 16 22:00 → Jan 17 21:57):
- Clear intraday uptrend: sequence of higher highs/higher lows from ~0.124 to a peak near 0.1603.
- Late session: pullback from the 0.158–0.160 zone down to ~0.1508.
- The pullback did not break the prior major intraday support zones (notably ~0.146–0.148 and ~0.144).
Regime conclusion:
- Daily trend: still repairing from a long downtrend, but momentum has shifted (trend transition).
- Intraday trend: bull trend with first meaningful pullback after a vertical move.
2) Trend & structure (market structure / Dow theory)
- Impulse leg: 0.124 → 0.160 (~+29%).
- Retracement: 0.160 → 0.1508 (~-5.9% from the high).
- This looks like impulse then consolidation, not a full reversal.
Key structural levels from the hourly tape:
- Resistance (supply): 0.1586–0.1603 (session high / rejection area). A second push here may face profit-taking.
- Pivot / mid resistance: ~0.1532–0.1546 (multiple hourly closes and turns). Often becomes a “decision zone.”
- Support 1: 0.1500–0.1487 (multiple touches: 16:00–18:00 zone and late pullback).
- Support 2: 0.1461–0.1443 (earlier breakout shelf; if lost, probability increases that this was a blow-off top).
- Support 3: 0.136–0.138 (intraday consolidation + earlier pullback low).
Structure read: as long as 0.146–0.148 holds, bulls retain control of the post-breakout structure.
3) Volume & participation (confirmation / exhaustion)
- Daily volume is extraordinary (310M) versus most prior daily bars (tens of millions). This usually indicates one (or a mix) of:
- Breakout confirmation (new demand entering)
- Short covering
- Event-driven spike
- Distribution/exhaustion
Intraday, the biggest volume hours occurred during expansion and the push through ~0.144–0.152, followed by heavy trading near the top (0.153–0.160). The late pullback occurred with lower hourly volume than the peak hour (19:00), which is more consistent with profit-taking than aggressive reversal selling.
Volume conclusion: participation confirms the breakout move; not enough evidence (from this dataset alone) that distribution has fully taken over.
4) Volatility analysis (range expansion, mean reversion risk)
- Today’s intraday range is very wide: ~0.124 to ~0.160.
- Such expansion typically leads to 24–48h consolidation (compression after expansion). That means:
- Chasing highs has poor expectancy.
- Buying pullbacks to well-defined support tends to be higher probability.
Expectation for next 24h: sideways-to-up with swings (high intraday volatility persists, but directional drift depends on whether 0.148 holds).
5) Candlestick / price action read
Daily candle (Jan 17):
- Big green body vs prior day close (0.1242 → 0.1508).
- Upper wick exists (high 0.1599, close 0.1508): signals rejection near 0.16 but not a collapse.
Hourly behavior into close:
- 19:00 made the high zone (0.1603) then subsequent hours failed to reclaim 0.153–0.154 sustainably.
- Last hours stabilized around 0.150–0.151, indicating buyers are defending the psychological 0.150 handle.
Price action conclusion: healthy pullback so far; need confirmation via holding above 0.148 and reclaiming 0.153+.
6) Fibonacci retracement (of today’s impulse)
Using impulse low 0.12416 to high 0.16025 (range ≈ 0.03609):
- 23.6% retrace: ~0.1517
- 38.2% retrace: ~0.1465
- 50.0% retrace: ~0.1422
Current price ~0.1508 is sitting right around the shallow retrace zone (23.6%), which is typical in strong trends. If it loses this area, next magnet is ~0.1465.
7) Moving averages (inference from price location)
We can’t compute exact MA values from only this slice with precision, but behavior indicates:
- Price was below key averages for weeks; today’s spike likely pushed price above short MAs (e.g., 20D) and possibly testing medium averages.
- Breakouts that reclaim short MAs often retest them (pullback) before continuation.
MA implication: buying the retest (0.146–0.150 area) is favored over buying extensions into 0.158–0.160.
8) Momentum (RSI/MACD style inference)
The magnitude and speed of the move imply:
- RSI (hourly) likely reached overbought during the 0.158–0.160 push.
- The subsequent drift lower suggests momentum is cooling (RSI mean reversion) but not necessarily bearish divergence confirmed (we’d need indicator values).
Momentum implication: next 24h often prints a range; continuation requires a base and then a breakout.
9) Support/Resistance map (trade planning)
Immediate support band (highest importance): 0.1465–0.1500
- 0.150 is psychological and recent hold.
- 0.1465 is the Fib 38.2% and breakout shelf area.
Upside targets / resistance:
- 0.1535–0.1546 (pivot)
- 0.1586–0.1603 (session high zone)
- If 0.160 breaks with acceptance, next extension zones become ~0.165–0.170 (round-number/expansion area), but that is less certain within 24h.
24-hour prediction (base case + alternates)
Base case (highest probability):
- Consolidation with bullish bias: price oscillates between 0.146–0.160, attempting another test of 0.158–0.160 after building a base.
- Expected 24h drift: modestly upward if 0.148 holds.
Bull case:
- Strong bid returns, breaks and holds above 0.160 → continuation toward 0.165–0.170.
Bear case:
- Failure to hold 0.146 → deeper retrace toward 0.142 (50% Fib) and possibly 0.138.
Given the close near 0.1508 (shallow retrace) and the volume-backed expansion, the probability-weighted view favors one more upward attempt rather than immediate full mean reversion.
Decision (position selection)
Buy (Long position) — but not at market; prefer a pullback entry into support to avoid buying into post-spike chop.
Optimal open (entry) price
- Open Price (limit buy): 0.1486
- Rationale: inside the 0.148–0.150 demand band and close to the 38.2% retrace (~0.1465) without requiring a perfect bottom fill.
Take-profit (close) price
- Close Price (take profit): 0.1592
- Rationale: just below the main supply zone 0.1586–0.1603 to improve fill probability during a retest.
(Risk note for execution: if price loses and holds below ~0.146, the base-case breaks and odds shift toward 0.142/0.138.)