SAND Breakdown After January Liquidity Spike: Sell-the-Rally Setup Into Overhead Supply

Market structure & trend (multi-timeframe)

1) Daily trend (swing context)

• Major downtrend since late Oct: Close fell from ~0.21 (Oct 28–29 zone) to ~0.11–0.13 area by late Dec/Jan.
• Mid-Jan impulse spike then distribution:
  • 2026-01-17: explosive rally to 0.16036 high, 0.15006 close on very large volume (capitulation/short-squeeze style impulse).
  • 2026-01-18–01-19: sharp retrace to 0.142 → 0.1358 close.
  • 2026-01-22: second expansion to 0.17256 high, 0.16430 close (another liquidity run).
  • 2026-01-23–01-25: waterfall decline back to 0.12945.
• Interpretation: the January pumps look like liquidity spikes inside a broader bear market. After failing to hold above ~0.16–0.17, price is reverting toward the prior base (~0.12–0.13).

2) Intraday (hourly) structure (last ~24h)

• Hourly sequence shows a persistent series of lower highs / lower lows from ~0.1496 down to ~0.1286.
• Small bounce into the close (0.1287 → 0.12945) is weak and still below multiple broken supports.
• Key intraday levels:
  • Resistance (supply): 0.1332–0.1346 (prior hourly support turned resistance), then 0.1375–0.1407, then 0.145–0.149.
  • Support (demand): 0.1280–0.1287, then 0.1250 (daily pivot area), then 0.120–0.119.

Momentum indicators (inference from closes & structure)

3) RSI (contextual read)

• Daily has been in a prolonged weak regime; the last few days are steeply negative (0.1586 → 0.1483 → 0.1294).
• This kind of drop typically pushes RSI toward oversold, which can allow brief mean-reversion bounces, but not necessarily a trend change.

4) MACD / rate-of-change (trend acceleration)

• The 3-day selloff after failing the 0.16–0.17 area implies MACD bearish crossover/expansion (negative momentum increasing).
• Hourly: persistent lower highs indicates bearish momentum intact; any bounce is likely corrective unless 0.134–0.137 is reclaimed.

Volatility & range tools

5) ATR / realized volatility

• Daily ranges expanded massively during Jan 17–23 (high volatility regime), then continued with a large down day into Jan 25.
• High-volatility downswings commonly produce:
  1. a sharp bounce (short covering),
  2. then another fade as overhead supply unloads.

6) Bollinger Bands (behavioral expectation)

• In a sell cascade like this, price often rides the lower band; bounces tend to revert toward the mid-band (roughly a moving average area).
• Given the fast drop, the “mid-band” magnet on the hourly likely sits around 0.134–0.138 (consistent with broken support zones).

Support/Resistance, supply/demand & price action

7) Horizontal S/R mapping (daily)

• 0.172–0.176: major liquidity high / rejection zone (strong supply).
• 0.160–0.165: failed breakout/acceptance zone (supply).
• 0.148–0.150: prior support (Jan 24 close ~0.1483) now overhead resistance.
• 0.130–0.125: current demand pocket, but being tested aggressively.
• 0.120–0.119: prior consolidation area (late Dec / early Jan), next meaningful support if 0.125 breaks.

8) Trendlines & market geometry

• A descending structure from Jan 22 high (0.1726) through Jan 23 (0.1758 high but lower close) into Jan 24–25 implies a steep bearish channel.
• Current price is nearer the lower edge, increasing odds of a short-term bounce, but channel direction remains down.

9) Candlestick/auction logic

• Jan 25 daily candle (so far) shows a large drop from ~0.148 to ~0.129 with a low near ~0.128: this is a strong sell dominance candle.
• Such candles frequently see a dead-cat bounce into prior breakdown levels (0.133–0.140) where sellers re-enter.

Volume / participation

10) Volume cues

• The biggest participation occurred during the pumps (Jan 17–23) and then heavy selling after.
• Jan 25 daily volume is still meaningful, suggesting distribution/unwinding rather than quiet drift.
• Hourly volumes are sporadic but the downtrend persisted even with moderate prints—often a sign of passive offers overhead.

Pattern-based reads

11) Failed breakout & bull trap (Jan 22–23)

• Rally to 0.1726 then inability to hold above ~0.16–0.165 created a classic bull trap.
• Post-trap path often revisits the origin of the move (here, ~0.12–0.13 base).

12) Mean reversion vs continuation (next 24h)

Base case is bearish continuation with corrective bounces:

• Probability favors a retest of 0.128–0.125 area.
• If 0.125 fails on momentum, next magnet is 0.120–0.119.
• Upside bounces are likely capped by 0.133–0.1346 first, then 0.137–0.1407.

24-hour price movement forecast (scenario tree)

Primary scenario (higher probability): Bearish drift / sell-the-rally

• Expect an initial bounce (short-covering) toward 0.133–0.135.
• Sellers likely defend that zone and push price back to 0.128, with risk of extension to 0.125.
• Expected 24h range (base case): 0.1248–0.1355.

Alternative scenario (lower probability): Oversold snapback

• If buyers reclaim and hold above 0.137–0.140, price can mean-revert toward 0.145–0.148.
• This would require strong demand absorption; given the current structure, it’s less likely within 24h.

Tail risk (bear continuation)

• A decisive break and acceptance below 0.125 can quickly tag 0.120–0.119.

Trade bias synthesis

• Trend (daily + hourly): Bearish.
• Momentum: Bearish, despite possible short-term oversold.
• Key idea: Short rallies into resistance rather than buying dips in a falling structure.

Conclusion: SELL (short bias) for next 24 hours, using a bounce into resistance to optimize entry.