SAND at a Post-Crash Balance Point: Range Breakdown Favored Below 0.089 Resistance

Market context (Daily)

• Macro trend (Nov → Feb): Clear downtrend from ~0.20 (mid-Nov) to a capitulation low near 0.0718 (Feb-06 hourly/day low area). This is a large multi-month bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows).
• Recent shock & rebound: On 2026-02-05 a major selloff occurred (daily low ~0.0775, close ~0.0787) with high volume, followed by 02-06 rebound (close ~0.08595) and 02-07 continuation (close ~0.08861). That sequence often behaves like a dead-cat bounce unless price can reclaim key moving averages and prior breakdown levels.
• Current price: 0.086805

Multi-timeframe structure (Support/Resistance)

Key supports

1. 0.0853–0.0860: Intraday pivot zone (multiple hourly opens/closes clustered; also 02-08/02-09 churn area). If lost, momentum tends to slide quickly.
2. 0.0832–0.0837: 02-09 intraday low and consolidation shelf. A break below would indicate sellers regained control.
3. 0.0787–0.0775: Post-crash base (02-05 close/low zone).
4. 0.0718–0.0725: Capitulation extreme (02-06 low). If revisited, trend is decisively bearish again.

Key resistances

1. 0.0892–0.0893: 02-09 intraday high zone; also psychologically the “0.09 handle”.
2. 0.0949–0.0950: 02-07 high / local swing resistance.
3. 0.1006–0.1037: Early-Feb supply and breakdown region (02-01 to 02-04 area). Strong overhead supply.

Implication: Price is currently trapped in a 0.083–0.089 short-term range, within a broader bearish regime.

Price action & candlestick read (Hourly, last ~24h)

• Early session pushed from ~0.0857 to 0.0892 (strong impulse), but failed to hold above ~0.0885–0.0890 and rotated down to 0.0832.
• From ~0.0832, buyers defended and price mean-reverted back to ~0.0868.
• This creates a failed breakout / rejection signature at 0.0892, followed by a rebound that looks more like range mean reversion than trend resumption.

Volume/participation

• Daily volumes spiked dramatically during the 01-17 to 01-23 pump/dump and again into the Feb selloff. The current area (0.08–0.09) is likely a high-supply distribution zone where trapped holders sell into rallies.
• Hourly volume shows heavier activity during the drop to 0.083 and rebound, but no clean trend-follow-through after the 0.0892 rejection.

Trend & moving-average logic (inference from series)

• Given sustained decline from 0.20 → 0.09, shorter MAs (10/20D) are likely below longer MAs (50D) and all are likely sloping down.
• Current price (~0.0868) is far below early-Feb levels (~0.10) and much further below Jan peaks; thus rallies tend to meet MA resistance quickly.

Takeaway: The higher-timeframe MA regime likely remains bearish; bounces are sellable until proven otherwise.

Momentum (RSI/MACD-style interpretation)

• The crash to ~0.0718 likely pushed RSI deeply oversold; subsequent rebound to ~0.089 is consistent with a mean-reversion oversold bounce.
• However, the inability to break/hold above 0.089–0.095 suggests momentum is fading and rolling over.
• After a sharp bounce, momentum commonly transitions into bearish consolidation before the next leg (either continuation down, or base-building). Current action fits consolidation with downside risk.

Volatility (ATR/Bollinger-style interpretation)

• Feb-05 to Feb-07 shows expanded ranges (high ATR). After volatility expansion, markets often form a volatility contraction range and then break.
• Current tight churn around 0.086–0.087 after large intraday swings suggests the next 24h may be a range break setup.
• With the prevailing daily downtrend and overhead supply, probability slightly favors downside break (back toward 0.083 and possibly 0.080–0.078) unless 0.0892 is cleanly reclaimed.

Pattern & level-based strategies

1) Range trading framework

• Range: 0.0832 support / 0.0892 resistance.
• Price is mid-range now (~0.0868), which is a poor long entry (low reward) and a reasonable area to position for a retest of support if resistance holds.

2) Breakout/Breakdown trigger plan

• Bull trigger (invalidates short bias): sustained acceptance above 0.0893, then target 0.0949.
• Bear trigger: loss of 0.0853–0.0860 (pivot) with follow-through → target 0.0832, then 0.0800/0.0787.

3) Fibonacci (local swing)

Using local swing low ~0.0832 to swing high 0.0892:

• 50% retrace ~0.0862 (price is hovering near this equilibrium).
• If price cannot hold above ~0.0862–0.0865 on retests, it often drifts back to the swing low (~0.0832).

Next 24h directional call (probabilistic)

• Base case (55–60%): drift/rotation lower within the range, with a likely test of 0.0855 then 0.0832.
• Bear extension (25–30%): break below 0.0832 → quick flush toward 0.0800 and possibly 0.0787.
• Bull case (15–20%): reclaim 0.0893 and hold → push to 0.0949, but this requires strong follow-through that is currently not evident.

Net: Slight bearish edge for the next 24h.

Trade decision (spot or perp-style directional)

Given dominant daily downtrend, resistance rejection at 0.0892, and mean-reversion nature of the bounce:

• Prefer Sell (Short) from a better location near resistance rather than mid-range.

Optimal open (entry)

• Open Price (Sell): 0.0889
  • Rationale: close to the intraday resistance band 0.0892–0.0893 while leaving room for normal noise.

Take-profit (close)

• Close Price (Take Profit): 0.0834
  • Rationale: just above the key shelf 0.0832 to increase fill probability before potential bounce.

(Risk note: if price accepts above ~0.0893, the bearish thesis weakens; a practical stop would typically sit above ~0.0900–0.0910, but you did not request stop-loss output.)