Solana Bearish Pressure Builds: Targeting Next Major Support at $142 as Downtrend Persists

Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Solana (SOL) – As of June 19, 2025

1. Macro Trend & Price Structure

Daily Timeframe

• Price Context: SOL is currently trading at $145.40 after retracing from local highs (~$184 in mid-May, $165 in early June), exhibiting a substantial correction (-21%) from recent swing highs.
• Pattern Observation: The recent sequence in May and June highlights a double-peaked top formation around $184 followed by lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a downtrend.

2. Support & Resistance Analysis

• Major Resistance:
  • $148.00–$150.00 – Multiple high-volume tests in recent days (June 17th, June 18th, also visible in intraday June 19th). Failed breakouts here.
  • $153.00 – Former support (June 13th-16th) turned into resistance.
• Immediate Support:
  • $143.00–$144.00 zone – Multiple rebounds from this area on June 19th and recently (intraday wicks, including today’s session).
  • $141.50 – Deeper daily support (see June 13th low: $141.43).
• Longer-Term Support:
  • $137.50 – Acts as a significant springboard (see late April and past strong reactions).

3. Price Action & Candlestick Analysis

• Recent Daily Candlesticks:
  • A series of red-bodied candles, with yesterday (June 18th) and today’s session showing consecutive lower closes.
  • Today’s (so-far) candle shows a tight range, and several hours have been unable to break decisively above $146, indicating sellers are capping moves higher.
  • Intraday price tested a low of ~$143.11 and quickly rebounded, showing demand absorption but weak follow-through.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: Volume is lower compared to early June's capitulation move ($634M on June 13th down to $215M June 14th), but decent on dips, suggesting ongoing accumulation or buyers attempting to halt the selloff in the $143–$145 region.
• No Confirmed Capitulation Bottom: The largest volume bars are still seen on sell days, not on reversal days. No clear reversal signature.

5. Moving Averages (MA)

• 20-day MA Estimate (~$153): Overhead and trending lower, acting as dynamic resistance on June 13th–16th and following days.
• 50-day MA Estimate (~$158–$162): Well above current levels. Crossed downward in late May, often a bearish continuation signal.
• Price relative to MA: SOL remains below key MAs, confirming short-term bearish structure.

6. Oscillator Tools

RSI (Relative Strength Index, visual estimate):

• RSI is likely in the neutral-to-slightly oversold region (35–45), after a protracted fall. No bullish divergence visible in most recent swings.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• Both MACD line and Signal are likely below zero with no obvious bullish cross yet, further confirming weak momentum.

7. Trend Strength (ADX, visual estimate):

• Moderate ADX (Average Directional Index) – Trend strength is present, but weakening as volatility suppresses around the $145 level. Downtrend fatigue possible, but no reversal yet.

8. Chart Patterns

• Bearish Continuation: Lower highs since $184 (mid-May) and $165 (June 11th). No clear double/triple bottom, only minor short-term base forming at $143–$144.
• Potential Range Formation: If price cannot break $143 or $146 in the next hours, may see chop between $143–$147 through the Asia/Europe open.

9. Fibonacci Retracement Estimation

• Taking recent swing low ($137.3, Apr. 26) to swing high ($184, May 13):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ $164.7 (broken convincingly)
  • 50.0% retrace ≈ $160.7 (now resistance)
  • 61.8% retrace ≈ $153.4 (clear resistance, failed bounce)
• Price currently below all key retraces, further confirming the bearish setup.

10. Order Flow & Market Sentiment (as inferred from price/volume)

• Buyers showing up at dips, but lack initiative. Sellers remain in control until $148+ is reclaimed on convincing volume.
• Market indecision near $145: Choppy, low-volume bounces reflected in 1-hour candles, with upper-wick rejections and few strong green closes.

11. Volatility Indicators (Bollinger Bands, Estimate):

• With price tightly pressed against lower Bollinger Band ($143–$145), volatility compression suggests an imminent move, but direction (per aforementioned factors) still favors the downside.

12. Elliott Wave (Visual, Estimate):

• Likely in a C or 3rd wave down from the $184 top, as price forms lower highs/lows. No evidence of an impulsive reversal wave.

13. Confluence & Conclusion

• The technical picture is negative: bearish price structure, declining MAs, overhead resistance, and strong supply at every bounce.
• The risk/reward currently favors a short (sell) position provided entry is close to $146–$147.
• Key risk: Strong absorption at $143–$144, but lack of bullish reversal confirmation means further downside is likely before any credible bounce.

Predicted Next 24 Hours

• Primary scenario: Test toward $143, potential extension to $141.5–$142.5 area.
• Risk scenario: If strong buyers push SOL above $147 (and especially $148), bearish setup is nullified and a squeeze toward $150–$153 is possible, though not favored by current structure.
• On balance: Short-term weakness to continue, targeting $142 region.

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Strategy:

• Action: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $145.80 (ideal on small retracement, close to current)
• Take Profit (Close Price): $142.15 (near previous support, allows exit before strong buyers potentially reappear)

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