Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Solana (SOL) as of 2025-06-29

1. Trend Analysis

• Medium-Term Trend (April–June Series): SOL has experienced notable volatility since April 2025, climbing from the $120 range, peaking at above $180 in mid-May, then retracing to mid-$140s, and currently consolidating in the $145–$155 region. The peak at $184 on May 13th marked the cycle's bullish climax, as subsequently the overall structure shifted from higher highs to consolidation with lower highs and intermittent sharp drops (notably the drop to $131 on June 22nd).
• Recent Short-Term Trend: Over the last 7 days, SOL rebounded from a local bottom at $131.61 (June 22nd), closing at $145–$150 for several days before a sharp rebound to today's $151.04. This is a classic V-shaped recovery, with the last 24 hours showing bullish momentum.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes and Lulls: Volume remains robust on all larger swings, with visible surges during both sell-offs (ex: June 22nd–23rd) and rebounds (June 28th, 29th). Currently, intra-day volume is moderate to slightly declining, indicating market participants are cautious, awaiting direction confirmation.

3. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Support Levels:

  • $130–$133: Strong multi-session support (viable buying zone, June 21–23 lows).
  • $140: Historical psychological round number, supported repeatedly through late June.
  • $145: Used as a base twice in the past week (June 24–27).

• Major Resistance Levels:

  • $152.30–$152.80: Recent local tops and intra-day highs.
  • $155: Clustered high from June 8th; marks short-term resistance.
  • $165–$170: Significant cluster from June 10th–12th.

• Current Price Placement ($151.04): The price sits just below immediate resistance but above recent support, showing consolidation near the upper boundary of its recent range.

4. Moving Averages

• 20-Day MA: Estimated at $146.50 (using average closes from the June series). SOL trades above this, indicating near-term bullishness.
• 50-Day MA: Estimated at $152 (average close from previous cycles). Price is just at this level, making this an immediate pivot.
• Interpretation: Holding above the 20-day MA signals bullish sentiment; threatening the 50-day MA hints at breakout potential, but also at the possibility of rejection if momentum stalls.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI) (Estimation)

• Recent Moves: After the sharp drop to 131, a quick rally back above 150 likely brought RSI from deeply oversold (likely 30–35 on June 22nd) to neutral-to-bullish (currently ~55–60), suggesting room to move higher before overbought territory (70+) is approached.

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD Line vs. Signal Line: MACD likely just crossed above the signal line with the recent sharp rally (from sub-140s to above 150). This crossover is bullish. However, the separation (distance between MACD and Signal) remains modest, indicating a nascent uptrend rather than a confirmed long breakout.

7. Candlestick Pattern Analysis

• Recent Daily Candles: Last two daily candles show strong green-bodied closes, with minimal wicks, denoting buyer dominance. Today's intraday highs above $152 echo a bullish advance, but failed to close the day above $152, implying some profit-taking or resistance.
• Hourly Structure: Most recent hourly ranges are narrow, suggesting low volatility—often preceding a breakout movement.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Recent Activity: Price is hugging or slightly crossing the upper Bollinger Band (~$151–$153 zone). This reflects strong bullish intent but may signal a pause or minor retracement before another push higher.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (April High to June Low)

• Key Fib Levels:
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$146
  • 50% retracement: ~$153
  • 61.8% retracement: ~$160
• Price Reaction: SOL trades between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, typically a battleground zone. Break above $153 (50% level) can trigger a rally into $160. Rejection could mean a quick return to $146.

10. Chart Patterns and Market Psychology

• Emerging ascending triangle formation from June 23 support ($144–$145) and flat resistance ($152). This is bullish if price can close above $152.50 on strong volume. Invalidation if $146 is broken with high sell volume.
• Market psychology is shifting from panic selling (June 21–22) to relief buying and FOMO (June 28–now).

11. Order Flow & Liquidity Zones

• Historical footprint shows increased buying activity at $148–$149, and sell walls emerge around $152. Short-term, market makers are likely accumulating in $149–$151, positioning for either an upside breakout or downside liquidity grab.

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12. Synthesis and 24h Outlook

• Bull Case: Immediate breakout above $152.50 (and daily close above $153) triggers short covering and bullish confirmation targeting $158–$160. RSI and MACD support further upside.

• Bear Case: Failure to breach $152.50 and a sell-off below $149 invokes quick drawback to $146, with $144–$145 representing the last line of defense before deeper retracement.

• Bias: Short- to medium-term technicals lean bullish given:

  • Higher lows since June 22nd
  • Recent strong candle closes
  • MACD and RSI recovering from oversold conditions
  • Price closing above 20-Day MA, challenging 50-Day MA

• Tactical Suggestion: Given the risk-reward, a Buy/Long position is favored, ideally placed on minor dips to minimize entry risk.

13. Order Entry, Risk/Reward and Exit Strategy

• Optimal Open (Buy) Price: $150.50 – Slight pullback into previous hourly lows, common in pause before continuation.
• Target Close Price: $158.00 – Next key resistance and Fibonacci extension, consistent with pattern breakout targets.
• Stop-Loss (not asked, but for risk management): $146.00 – Just below last multi-session support, to cut if pattern invalidates.

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Conclusion

Solana (SOL) has transitioned from a deep correction to a clear recovery and now presses against a key resistance band ($152). Leading indicators suggest bullish momentum is likely to break this band, aiming for a short-term rally toward $158. Traders are best positioned by buying as close to $150 as possible, setting targets at upper resistance, and protecting capital against invalidation below $146.

This outlook is contingent on broader crypto market stability and no immediate macro shocks.