Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Solana (SOL) — July 20, 2025

1. Chart Structure & Timeframe

• Daily and Hourly Data: Both long-term trends (over the past 3 months) and granular recent movements (last 24 hours) are available. This provides a robust base for multi-timeframe analysis.

2. Trend Analysis

• Macro Trend (Last 3 Months):
  • SOL underwent a price compression phase ~May through mid-June, frequently ranging $140–$155.
  • After bottoming at $131.6 on June 22, a strong, persistent uptrend is visible, accelerating from July 1 ($146.9) to today’s $181.47 (+23.5% advance in under 3 weeks).
• Short-Term Structure (Last 5 Days):
  • Strong breakout July 16–July 19, with high-volume surges from $163.95 (July 15 close) to $181.47 today (+10.7%).
  • Recent hourly candles exhibit higher highs and higher lows — a classic bullish structure.

3. Volume Analysis

• Breakout Confirmation:
  • Volume spiked significantly during July 16–July 18 (above previous 30-day average), confirming the upward thrust.
  • Today’s session (July 20) also reveals consistent hourly volume, reinforcing buying interest at higher prices.

4. Support & Resistance

• Major Resistance:
  • Next significant resistance is at ~$185 (July 18 high was $184.36); above that, next psychological zone is $190 and $200.
• Immediate Support:
  • $175–$177 range (recent consolidation zone)
  • $168–$170 (previous breakout level, now strong underlying support)
• Critical Inflection:
  • The current price is approaching resistance, suggesting a pullback or consolidation before continuation is probable.

5. Pattern Recognition

• Ascending Channel on Hourly:
  • Well-defined upward sloping channel last 3 days; price hugging the upper boundary.
• Potential Bull Flag (Intraday):
  • After sharp rally to $183 in the early hours, consolidation in the $180–$183 range could be setting up for another breakout.
• Breakaway Gap (Daily):
  • July 16–17 gap supports bullish momentum and signals strong confidence among buyers.

6. Indicator Analysis

• Moving Averages (Estimated):
  • 21EMA (Daily): Likely at ~$170, well below current price.
  • 50EMA (Daily): ~$160, confirming strong bullish bias (golden cross scenario).
  • Hourly 8/21 EMAs: Current price is above both fast-moving averages — short-term trend is intact.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • Daily RSI likely >70, signaling overbought but healthy in a strong trend (momentum markets can stay overbought).
  • 1H RSI during midday hours was likely ~65–70, moderating recently – no sign of bearish divergence.
• MACD:
  • Both daily and hourly MACD signals are positive (MACD line above Signal), histogram supports momentum continuation.
• Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP):
  • Intraday price is trading above its session VWAP — reinforcing bullish bias for short-term traders.

7. Volatility Assessment (ATR & Range)

• Average True Range (ATR) has risen over the last week, reflecting higher volatility typical of strong trending environments (e.g. recent 24-hour range nearly $7). That said, this also means sharp retracements are possible, and entries need to be managed carefully.

8. Order Flow / Momentum Observations

• No evidence of distribution (no large upper wicks, no volume spikes on sell-offs).
• Orderly, broad-based buying with orderly, shallow pullbacks — institutional accumulation signature.

9. Fibonacci Levels

• Measured Move (from June low $131.6 to July 18 high $184.36):
  • 23.6% retrace: $171.43
  • 38.2% retrace: $164.91
  • 61.8% extension: $200+
  • Current price trades above the 0.0% level and hugs the upper impulsive leg — no overhead resistance until $185 then $190–200.

10. Sentiment & Risk Assessment

• Sentiment: In short-term, fear of missing out (FOMO) and momentum chasing are evident. Overnight funding rates (not shown, but likely elevated) suggest possible minor shakeouts, but no sustained selling.
• Risk: High probability of continued upside — but, given proximity to resistance, optimal risk-reward comes from entries near support ($179–$180), not at session highs. Stop-loss needs to be set below $175 (recent structure).

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11. Synthesized Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Expect a brief consolidation in the $180–$183 area, potential dip to $179.50–$180 if there’s profit taking.
• With trend structure and volume confirming, the most likely scenario is another breakout attempt above $183, targeting the $185–$190 range by end of session tomorrow.
• Risk of a sharp, deep correction is low unless there is an outside, market-wide shock.

12. Trade Plan

• Action: BUY on minor pullback
• Entry Zone: $179.50–$180.00 (wait for a slight dip/limit order)
• Target/Take Profit: $185.80 (rounded just under resistance — capture pre-breakout orders)
• Stop Loss: Not specified per prompt, but prudent: below $175 (recent swing low), for risk management.

Conclusion: The technical structure remains overwhelmingly bullish, and a continuation toward $185.80 is favored as long as $177–$179 holds. Buy the dip, do not chase at session highs.