Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Solana (SOL) as of August 1, 2025

1. Market Structure and Trend Analysis

• Long-Term (Daily) Trend: Reviewing the daily closes and recent major swings, SOL reached a local peak at $205.7 on July 22 and since then has entered a pronounced downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows are visible, punctuated by increased volatility and heavy volume on sharp downward moves (notably July 23–Aug 1).
• Short-Term (Intraday/Hourly) Trend: The past 24 hours saw a continued slide from a high of ~$172 to a final hourly close at $163.8. The attempted bounce from $165.5–$169 was weak—no strong follow-through. Each bounce was quickly sold into, confirming bearish momentum. Lower lows on the hourly chart have not been meaningfully challenged.

2. Volume Analysis

• Distribution Signatures: The highest volumes since the peak (especially July 21–24, and again into Aug 1) were on red candles (down days). This suggests institutional selling pressure, not accumulation. Today’s last hourly move from $166.5 to $163.7 was with strong volume (135M+), suggesting capitulation may be striking but no concrete sign of a reversal.

3. Candlestick & Pattern Recognition

• Recent Candlesticks: The Aug 1 session displayed several long-bodied red candles and subsequent weak hammer/small body attempts at stabilization, which were quickly faded.
• Bearish Patterns: On the daily, a descending channel and multiple failed attempts to reclaim $180, $170, and $165 are apparent.
• No reversal patterns (such as bullish engulfing, morning star) have yet appeared in recent candles, further confirming no change in trend.

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Support: Immediate support is around $162–$163 (near current price), below that is $157–$156 (June lows), and then $152, $144, and $135 (major swing lows from June).
• Key Resistance: Minor short-term resistance at $165–$168, then strong resistance at $170 and much more so at $180.
• Price has broken below the $170–$165 region, a strong support-turned-resistance zone. This breakdown on heavy volume increases the probability of further downside.

5. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • The 50-day EMA: Likely above $170 and now curving downwards; price decisively below the 50-EMA, confirming a bearish regime.
  • The 200-day EMA: Below $150, still upward, but with negative crossover risk if this trend persists.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): On the daily, RSI is estimated to be in the 32–36 range—approaching oversold, but not at extreme capitulation levels (sub-25). On the hourly, RSI below 30 for several recent candles, indicating intraday oversold but structurally, no reversal confirmation.
• MACD: Daily MACD likely deeply negative and diverging, showing strong bearish momentum and no bullish crossover in sight. The histogram remains negative—momentum with the bears.

6. Volatility Studies

• ATR (Average True Range): Notably elevated in the most recent sessions—a sign of panic and uncertainty, which usually precede trend continuation rather than reversal.

7. Order Book Structure (Inferred)

• Given sharp sell-offs and lack of meaningful bounce, likely that liquidity below $160 is thin and susceptible to stop-runs and further unwind if $157–156 is breached.

8. Sentiment and Behavioral Context

• The market has experienced a sharp markdown after euphoria at the $200+ level. Weak hands are being flushed out. Capitulation is close but not obviously over, as no major reversal pattern or huge volatility wash-out with wick recovery has appeared—characteristic of true seller exhaustion.

9. Summary and Price Prediction

• Thesis: Despite being mildly oversold on the intraday, the prevailing intermediate-term downtrend, bearish momentum, breakdown of solid support zones, absence of reversal patterns, and heavy distribution volume compels a bearish outlook for the next 24 hours.
• Prediction: There may be small relief rallies (intraday bounces toward $165–$167, possibly capped at $170), but the primary expectation is further probing of lower support. Key targets are $160, then $156 (the June swing low). If broader market sentiment is negative, a flush toward $152 is possible.
• Risk: An abrupt reversal/bounce toward $170–$172 is possible, but probability is low without sudden bullish catalysts or market-wide reversal.

10. Combining Methods—for Strategic Execution

• Short-term scalpers might play the relief bounce to $165–167, but for swing/24-hour trades, risk-reward still favors the short side.
• Momentum, trend-following, market structure, and volume analysis all point to continuing downtrend. RSI and potential for short-term oversold bounces are outweighed by breakdown context and heavy overhead resistance.

11. Execution Plan

• Action: SELL at a retracement toward minor resistance to maximize entry value, ideally into a weak bounce ($164.5–$165 zone), targeting the next liquidity pools at $157.

Conclusion: SELL (Short Position) on retracements. Target the next strong support for take profit.