SOL coiled above 50% retrace, targeting 61.8% at 187–188 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis (SOL/USD)

Overview and context

• Instrument: Solana (SOL)
• Current price (last print): 182.912
• Data used: Daily OHLCV from 2025-05-12 through 2025-08-07, intraday hourly on 2025-08-09 through 20:58 UTC, plus visible key swing points in July–August.
• Market state: After a sharp July advance to the 205–206 peak (7/22), SOL corrected to a 8/2 low near 158.48, then built a strong recovery leg into mid–high 170s and now 182–183. Momentum on the hourly is constructive with shallow pullbacks and higher lows.

Step 1 — Structure, trend, and S/R mapping

• Higher time frame (daily):

  • Swing high: 205.70 (7/22). Swing low: 158.48 (8/02). The current rally has retraced ~51–52% of that downswing.
  • Medium-term trend: Uptrend intact over the last 10 sessions (higher lows from 8/2 → 8/4 → 8/6 → 8/7 → 8/9), but still a broader pullback vs the 7/22 high. Price is regaining key moving averages (see Step 3).
  • Key daily resistance zones:
    • 186.8–187.7: Confluence of prior supply (7/25 close ~186.78), 7/26–7/27 distribution area, and 61.8% retracement of 205.7 → 158.5 (≈187.7).
    • 189–190.5: 7/27 high area (190.44) and prior congestion.
    • 195–196: 78.6% retracement (≈195.6) and 7/21 daily close near 196.
    • 205–206: Major top and breakout pivot from 7/22.
  • Key daily supports:
    • 175.0–176.5: 8/7 close 175.49 and recent base.
    • 172.0–172.5: 7/31 close 172.42; high-volume node in late July.
    • 168.8–169.6: 8/4 close 169.43; 23.6–38.2% cluster from the recovery leg.
    • 162–165: 8/1–8/5 reaction zone and breakdown/reclaim band.

• Intraday (hourly 8/9):

  • Price stair-stepped from ~176.9 to 183 with controlled dips (notably 06:00–07:00 pullback to ~179.44 and quick recovery). Structure is a rising channel with minor consolidations; buyers defended 179.4–180.2 multiple times.
  • Volume upticks on up-swings (e.g., 05:00, 10:00, 20:00 UTC), indicating demand on strength versus weakness—bullish.

Step 2 — Fibonacci mapping (swing 205.7 → 158.48)

• Range: 47.22. Retracements from 158.48:
  • 23.6% ≈ 169.63 (8/4 close cluster)
  • 38.2% ≈ 176.52 (near 8/7 region)
  • 50% ≈ 182.09 (just reclaimed; price now above)
  • 61.8% ≈ 187.68 (next key upside magnet/resistance)
  • 78.6% ≈ 195.60 (upper resistance ahead) Interpretation: Reclaim of 50% typically invites a test of 61.8% if momentum holds. Expect 186.8–187.7 to be probed within 24h if intraday structure remains intact.

Step 3 — Moving averages and slope analysis (daily; approximate)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 178.4 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price above by ~2.5%. Slope turning up: bullish short-term bias.
• 50-day SMA (approx): mid- to high-160s given June’s prints in the 140–160s and July’s rally. Price above: supportive medium-term trend resumption signal.
• 200-day SMA (approx, not fully provided): likely well below spot given months of price action >130–170. Price likely above 200D: macro uptrend intact.
• Implication: Classic bullish stack—spot > 20SMA > 50SMA (> 200SMA) with the 20D curling higher. Pullbacks to the 20D/5–10D EMAs are buyable while structure holds.

Step 4 — Momentum oscillators (direction, not over-precision)

• Daily RSI(14): Rising from oversold/neutral in early August toward mid-50s/low-60s. Not overbought; room to run to resistance.
• Hourly RSI(14): Elevated (upper-50s to high-60s), consistent with trend advance; minor pullbacks ease local overbought.
• Stochastic (4h/1h): Likely >80 on 1h with resets during micro dips; still supportive of trend continuation unless a bearish cross occurs near resistance.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD histogram flipping positive and signal lines curling up—confirmation of momentum turn.
  • Hourly MACD > signal with shallow histogram fades on dips—trend-supportive. Interpretation: Momentum is constructive across timeframes; no major bearish divergence visible on 1h during the 176.9 → 183 leg.

Step 5 — Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14): Approx 9–11 range points, with recent sessions printing 8–12. Expectable 24h swing ~±5–7 from mid, with tails broader on weekend moves.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price riding toward the upper band; mid-band near the 20D SMA (~178.4). Near-term: mild overextension possible, but not extreme.
• Keltner Channels (20, ATR-based): Price in upper channel on 1h and pushing mid-to-upper on daily—favors continuation but warns of intraday mean-reversion dips. Interpretation: Volatility supportive of a move into 186–188; pullbacks of 2–3 points intraday are normal in this regime.

Step 6 — Volume analytics

• Daily: Rising volume off the August lows; 8/7 was a strong up day on healthy turnover. This confirms demand entering on the recovery leg.
• Intraday: Notable volume spikes on upside hours (05:00, 10:00, 20:00 UTC) and lighter prints on consolidations—bullish intraday order flow skew.
• OBV (conceptual): Steadily rising since the 8/2 low—validates the price advance.

Step 7 — Intraday tools: pivots, VWAP, micro structure

• Floor Pivots using 8/7 H/L/C (175.49/166.89/175.49):
  • Pivot P ≈ 172.62; R1 ≈ 178.35; R2 ≈ 181.22; R3 ≈ 186.95; S1 ≈ 169.75; S2 ≈ 164.02; S3 ≈ 161.15.
  • Current price is above R2 and below R3—often a path of least resistance toward R3 if intraday trend persists.
• Hourly support ladder: 179.4–180.2 (defended multiple times), then 178.3–178.7.
• VWAP (session): Not precisely computed here, but price has been spending more time above intraday VWAP since the 05:00 surge—bullish. Interpretation: Favor buying pullbacks above 179.5–180.0 with R3 ≈ 186.95 and the 61.8% Fib ≈ 187.7 as upside magnets.

Step 8 — Ichimoku (directional read)

• 1h: Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; forward cloud turning green. Pullbacks to Kijun often bought in a trend day.
• 4h (inferred): Price likely pushing/above cloud after the August rebound; baseline rising. Bullish bias while above cloud.

Step 9 — Pattern diagnostics

• Hourly ascending channel with higher highs and higher lows since ~176.9. Small bull flags along the way.
• No clear topping formation at current levels; early signs of slowing momentum near 183, but dips have been shallow and bought.
• On daily, the rally resembles a V-shaped recovery into the mid-retracement cluster; 186–188 is the first substantial test for sellers.

Step 10 — Elliott Wave (illustrative, not prescriptive)

• From 8/2 low (158.5):
  • Wave 1 to ~169.7 (8/4), Wave 2 to ~164.1 (8/5), Wave 3 toward ~175.5 (8/7), shallow Wave 4 basing 171–173/late 7/31–8/1, Wave 5 unfolding now toward 186–188 zone.
• If correct, a reaction near 187.7 is probable before either extending or consolidating.

Step 11 — Confluence and 24h outlook Bullish factors

• Reclaim of the 50% Fib (≈182.1) with momentum, targeting 61.8% (≈187.7).
• Above 20D SMA (~178.4) with slope turning up; above 50D.
• Intraday structure constructive; buyers defending 179.5–180.
• Pivot map shows R3 ≈ 186.95 coinciding with Fib 61.8% ≈ 187.7 and prior supply—powerful confluence target.

Cautionary factors

• Approaching dense resistance band 186.8–190.5; first test often rejects.
• Hourly momentum elevated; minor mean-reversion dips of 1–2% likely before continuation.

Probability-weighted scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Buy-the-dip continuation. Early pullback toward 181.5–182.0, then push to 186.9–187.8. Close in the 186–188 zone.
• Bull extension (20%): Momentum squeeze through 187.7 to tag 189.5–190.5 if liquidity thins; likely fades back to high-187s by end of window.
• Pullback/consolidation (25%): Failure to hold 181.5–182.0 leads to test of 179.5–180.0 support; deeper dip limited to 178.3–178.7 if trend remains intact. Recovery still probable afterward.

Trade plan logic (intraday swing, 12–36h)

• Bias: Long on pullbacks while price holds above 179.5–180.0 (hourly support and reclaimed structure).
• Entry: Prefer a limit buy slightly below current price near the reclaimed 50% Fib/previous micro base—181.8–182.1. This aligns to better reward-to-risk if initial dip occurs.
• Target: First target at the R3/Fib 61.8% confluence 186.9–187.7. Conservative profit-taking recommended ahead of the 189.0 round number and prior 7/27 high.
• Risk management (suggested, not required by prompt): Protective stop below 178.5 (below defended intraday ladder and day’s pullback depths). That yields roughly 1.6–1.9 R to the 187.7 target from a ~181.9 entry.

Conclusion

• Confluence is strong for a continuation push to 186.9–187.7 within 24h, provided 179.5–180.0 support holds. Strategy: Buy on a minor dip around 181.9 with a take-profit near 187.7 to respect the first major resistance band. If momentum accelerates, secondary runners can target 189–190.5, but the primary plan books into the 61.8% confluence.

Note: This is market analysis, not financial advice. Crypto trades are volatile; use position sizing and stops appropriate to your risk tolerance.