SOL coiling beneath 50 percent retracement: primed for a push toward 189 to 190 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis for SOL as of 2025-08-10 20:58 UTC

1. Market structure and context

• Higher time frame trend: After the late June capitulation to the 126.8 to 132.4 zone and a V-shaped rebound into mid-July, SOL broke out to 205.7 on Jul 22, then retraced into early August, basing 158 to 165, and has been stair-stepping higher since Aug 4. The sequence of higher lows from 162.9 Aug 1, 164.1 Aug 5, 168.2 Aug 6, 175.5 Aug 7, 176.8 Aug 8, and today’s intraday higher low 178.6 evidences a constructive uptrend resumption.
• Current positioning vs key swings: Using the Jul 22 high 205.70 and Aug 1 low 162.88, the 38.2 percent retracement is 179.25, 50 percent is 184.29, and 61.8 percent is 189.33. Price at 183.10 sits just under the 50 percent line; intraday high 185.91 probed and rejected the 50 percent to pivot R3 cluster. This is a classic mid-retracement battle; reclaim and hold above 184.3 tilts probability toward a drive into 189 to 190.
• Hourly structure: Today printed a higher high at 185.91 and defended a higher low at 178.57, then reclaimed the 181 to 182 shelf with steady bids into the close. That is a bullish intraday structure with demand stepping in on dips.

2. Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 183.7 to 185.9 zone. Confluence of 50 percent fib 184.3, hourly supply 184.9 to 185.9, and classical pivot R3 185.2 from the Aug 8 reference day. Above that, next magnets 189.3 to 190.5 (61.8 percent fib at 189.33 and recent range top near 190.44).
• Immediate support: 181.1 to 182.3 intraday node (VWAP and repeated prints), 179.0 to 179.5 aligned with 38.2 percent fib 179.25, and deeper 176.7 to 177.7 (Aug 7 to Aug 8 acceptance zone). Structural invalidation of the short-term bull case sits below 172.4 to 173.7.

3. Momentum and oscillator suite

• RSI daily: Following the early Aug reset, RSI has recovered toward mid to high 50s, consistent with a healthy bullish trend not yet overbought. Room exists to push into 60 to 65 on a test of 189 to 190. Hourly RSI peaked around the 185.9 probe and cooled to neutral-high 50s; this resets fuel for another attempt higher.
• MACD daily: Bullish cross in early August with the histogram turning positive since roughly Aug 6 to 7. Slope remains upward, indicating increasing upside momentum. Hourly MACD shows a small bearish divergence on the 185.9 wick but has already mean-reverted, reducing divergence risk.
• Stochastic RSI hourly: Rotated down from overbought during the pullback to 181 to 182 and is curling; ideal setup for buy-the-dip entries if it crosses back up through midline near a rising support.
• MFI and OBV reads: Volume on up bars from Aug 6 to Aug 10 outpaced down bars, pushing OBV higher. Pullback volumes are smaller than impulsive upswings, a bullish accumulation signature.

4. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA estimated near 178 to 179. Price at 183 trades above the 20-day and also comfortably above the 50-day SMA which is likely in the mid 160s. Slopes are positive, reinforcing trend continuation bias.
• 20-hour SMA sits around 181.8 to 182.3; price hugging above to equal this morning’s consolidation band. The slope is upward. Expect dip demand near that moving average.

5. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR 14 daily estimated around 8 to 9, based on recent ranges of 6 to 13. A 24-hour move of 6 to 10 is feasible, placing 189 to 190 within reach from 183 if resistance breaks.
• Bollinger Bands daily: Midline near 179, upper band likely in high 190s, lower band mid 160s. Price is in the upper half with headroom before band pressure. Hourly bands show midline support near 182; upper band near 185 to 186, consistent with resistance cluster.
• Keltner Channels daily: Price near upper channel but not extended. Continuation is favored over sharp mean reversion, provided 181 to 182 holds pulls.
• Donchian Channels 20-day: Upper extreme 205.7, lower 158.5, midrange around 182.1. Current price sits above midrange, often a prelude to a re-test of upper third if structure remains intact.

6. Ichimoku cloud

• Daily: Price above cloud with Tenkan estimated 174 to 176 and Kijun around 170 to 172. Bullish price above both lines; cloud forward span likely rising. Chikou above price action, reinforcing bullish state. Pullbacks toward Tenkan tend to be bought while above Kijun.
• 4-hour and hourly: Above their clouds for most of the day, with brief intracloud chop during the 179 dip that was quickly reclaimed.

7. Price pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle on intraday: Rising swing lows since Aug 6 against a relatively flat horizontal supply 185 to 186. Implies a breakout probability bias higher with measured move of roughly triangle height 8 to 10, targeting 192 to 195 if 186 sustains.
• Cup and handle variant since Aug 4: Rounded advance into 185 to 186, pullback handle to 181 to 182, now recharging. Break above 186 validates toward 191 to 195.
• Candles: Long lower wick at 07:00 UTC to 178.57 and later bullish engulfing around 14:00 add to the demand profile. The 04:00 to 05:00 doji near highs signaled a pause rather than a reversal given subsequent higher low.

8. Fibonacci and classical pivots

• Fib retracements from 205.7 to 162.88: 38.2 at 179.25, 50 at 184.29, 61.8 at 189.33. Today’s play around the 50 percent is textbook. Acceptance above 184.3 opens a run at 189.3 to 190.5. Rejection sends a test of 181.8 then 179.3.
• Classical daily pivots using Aug 8 reference: P 176.61, R1 179.52, R2 182.27, R3 185.18, S1 173.86, S2 170.95. Price respected R2 and wicked slightly above R3, validating the efficiency of this ladder. Expect next session pivot to rise, supporting buy-on-dips behavior.

9. Volume profile view

• Visible range nodes since Aug 1: Heavy acceptance in the 171 to 175 band and a growing node 181 to 184. Today’s session built value at 181.5 to 183, raising the local point of control toward 182.6 to 183. Value migration up is bullish. Low-volume pocket sits 186 to 189, which can accelerate price once 186 breaks.

10. Elliott and harmonic heuristics

• A micro 5-wave advance from the Aug 6 pivot is plausible with wave 3 peaking near 185.9 and a shallow wave 4 intraday to 181 to 182, projecting wave 5 into 188 to 191. This aligns with the fib 61.8 target and triangle measured move.
• AB equals CD approximation from 162.9 to 176.8, retrace to 164.1, extension to 185.9 implies a completion region near 189 to 191 if symmetry persists.

11. Risk scenarios and probabilities for next 24 hours

• Base case 55 percent: Choppy consolidation 181 to 186 during Asia to early EU, followed by an upside resolution through 186 toward 188.5 to 190 into US hours. Momentum and structure support this path; resistance is thinning above 186.
• Bull extension 20 percent: Quick squeeze above 186 in Asia, traversing the low-volume pocket to 191 to 195 with intraday overextension then a late fade back to 189 area.
• Bear pullback 25 percent: Failure to hold 181.2 leads to a sweep of 179.0 to 179.5. If buyers fail there, a deeper test to 176.7 to 177.7 before another attempt higher. Only a decisive close below 176.5 would jeopardize the short-term uptrend; loss of 172.4 would invalidate the broader swing-resumption thesis.

12. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence favors buying dips above 181 with a target toward 189 to 190 within the 24-hour ATR envelope. Structure is constructive, momentum is supportive, and the resistance band is well-defined with a clear breakout trigger.
• Entry plan: Use a limit buy on a controlled pullback to 182.2 to align with the hourly 20 SMA and the developing point of control. This improves reward-to-risk versus buying the breakout while maintaining a high probability of fill given intraday cyclicity.
• Target: 189.4 anchored to the 61.8 percent retracement 189.33 and just beneath psychological 190 and prior supply, front-running likely passive sellers.
• Invalidation guidance detailed for risk control even if not part of the requested fields: A protective stop is prudent beneath 178.4, below the 38.2 fib 179.25 and today’s low 178.57, accounting for wick noise. This yields an approximate RR of about 2 to 1 for the proposed open and close.

13. Why not short here

• Shorting into a rising 20-day with supportive volume and a sequence of higher lows is fighting the prevailing impulse. The key resistance 185 to 186 has been tested with only shallow mean reversion, suggesting supply is thinning. Until 181 fails decisively, risk-adjusted shorts are inferior to patient dips-to-buy.

14. Summary

• Bias over next 24 hours: Bullish with buy-the-dip strategy. Expect 181 to 186 chop followed by an attempt to 189 to 190. Risk to the downside limited by 179 and 176.7 supports; invalidation below 172.4. Confluence from fibs, pivots, volume, and momentum supports a long.