SOL ignites above 190: Breakout retest favored before a push toward 198–200 within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias: Bullish momentum continuation with a high-probability retest of the 189.8–190.6 breakout zone followed by an extension toward 195–199.
• 24h range expectation: 187.0–199.5 with upside tail-risk to 201–203 if momentum accelerates; downside tail-risk to 184.8 if the breakout fails.
• Optimal execution plan: Buy pullback into 190.6 ±0.4 (prior resistance turned support) with take-profit staged near 198.9; protective stop below 186.8 (risk control, not part of schema fields).

Context and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: After a sharp correction into early August (8/1–8/2 lows ~159–156), SOL has carved a clean series of higher lows and higher highs: 162.9 → 168.2 → 175.5 → 182.9 closes culminating in today’s breakout push to 191+. The advance retraced >61.8% of the 7/22 high → 8/2 low downswing, reclaiming key resistance and signaling a trend resumption toward the 198–206 supply zone.
• Weekly context: The July 21–22 impulse (H=205.9) established the current macro supply ceiling. The subsequent pullback found demand in the mid-150s, a historically sticky demand band (late June nodes 135–153). The current rally is a classic “right side” recovery back into overhead supply with momentum and breadth improving.
• Intraday (hourly) structure 8/12: A textbook staircase advance: 174.7 → 177.8 → 181.8 → 185.0 → 187.9 → 190.3 → 191.3, with rising volume during US hours. Minimal upper wicks suggest persistent buying pressure, not just stop-driven spikes. The 189.9–191.0 area (7/23 close 189.54 and 7/27 H 190.44) has been reclaimed—now first support on pullbacks.

Key levels and confluence

• Immediate support: 189.8–190.6 (breakout retest), then 187.3–188.2 (19:00–20:00 consolidation shelf), and 184.9 (16:00 close and prior inflection). Deeper: 181.8 (15:00 H and pivot), 178.6–179.6 (intraday pivot cluster and 8/10 S1).
• Resistance: 195.2 (Fib 78.6% of 205.9→156.1 drop), 198.9 (7/21 high), 200.9 (1.0 Fib extension of current leg; see below), and 205.7–205.9 (major daily high/close on 7/22/23).
• Psychological: 190 (now support), 200 (round number magnet), 195 (mid-figure and Fib confluence).

Fibonacci mapping (precision and implications)

1. Retracement of the 7/22 high → 8/2 low

• Swing high 7/22: 205.87
• Swing low 8/2: 156.08
• Range: 49.79
• 38.2% from low: 175.10 (reclaimed on 8/7)
• 50%: 180.98 (reclaimed 8/9–8/10)
• 61.8%: 186.87 (decisive breakout today)
• 78.6%: 195.22 (next resistance)
• 100%: 205.87 (full retest target) Interpretation: Clean progression through 38.2 → 50 → 61.8% establishes a textbook pathway to 78.6% (195.2). Acceptance above 195.2 opens the door to a 198.9–205.9 probe.

2. Extension of the 8/1–8/10 impulse projected from 8/12 pullback

• Up-leg: 8/1(159.79/8/2 low 156.08) to 8/10 close/high 182.90; use major low 156.08 → 182.90 = 26.82
• Pullback pivot (C): 8/12 intraday low 174.09
• 0.618 ext: 174.09 + 0.618*26.82 ≈ 190.65 (today’s breakout print ~191 aligns—confluence achieved)
• 1.000 ext: 174.09 + 1.000*26.82 ≈ 200.91 (next extension objective)
• 1.272 ext: ≈ 208.21 (beyond 24h base case, aligns with July peak zone) Interpretation: The 0.618 extension hit today, favoring continuation toward 1.0 (200.9) if momentum persists. First resistance on route is 195.2 and 198.9.

Momentum and volatility

• RSI (1h, 14): Running in the 70–78 band (overbought regime), which in trends is a feature, not a bug. Expect shallow pullbacks to 50–60 RSI on dips (price ≈ 189–191) if trend remains strong.
• RSI (daily, 14): Likely mid-60s, rising—consistent with trend resumption, not yet at historically stretched extremes.
• MACD (1h): Bullish cross above zero since the mid-day breakout; histogram expanding—strong momentum impulse.
• MACD (daily): Recycling higher; signal line curling up after the early-August reset—room to run before prior July extremes.
• ADX/DMI (1h): +DI above -DI with rising ADX > 25 suggests trend strength; expect trend continuation behavior (buy-the-dip preference).
• Bollinger Bands (1h): Bands expanding with price riding the upper band; classic “walk-the-band.” Mid-band near ~185–186 (dynamic support on deeper dips). BB expansion suggests a volatility regime shift up.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside upper KC, a momentum condition. BB > KC width indicates a released squeeze—often produces multi-hour follow-through.
• ATR (daily): Recently ~10–12; expect 24h true range of ~5–8% around the mean. From 191, that implies ±10–15 points: 181–201 feasible. Our base case range (187–199.5) sits comfortably within that envelope.

Volume, VWAP, and order flow texture

• Volume thrust: 16:00–20:00 UTC bars show a strong pickup in turnover accompanying price appreciation—healthy confirmation that the breakout is sponsored by real demand.
• Session VWAP (8/12): Price has sustained above VWAP since the noon push; VWAP likely tracks 184–186 now and sharply rising—typical of trend days. Pullbacks that hold above or just tag rising VWAP often launch the next leg.
• Anchored VWAP from 8/2 low (156.1): Likely sits in the low/mid-170s; price well above—bullish higher-timeframe acceptance.
• Volume profile (recent): High-volume nodes around 175–178 and 181–183; current 189–191 zone has thinner historical participation since late July—“air pocket” up to 195–199 where heavier supply returns. This argues for faster tape between 191 and 195, then more two-way trade into 198–200.

Ichimoku Cloud (1h)

• Price > cloud, Tenkan > Kijun, and Lagging Span above price—classic bullish stack. Forward Kumo likely twisting bullish with a rising Senkou A; Kijun near ~185 provides dynamic swing support.

Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 8/21/50 EMAs (1h): Steeply positively stacked; price extended above 8/21—favors buy-the-dip toward the 8/21 EMA zone (currently ~186–188) with shallower first support ~190 (structure).
• Daily 20SMA/50SMA (approx.): 20SMA recovering into mid/high 170s; price > 20SMA. 50SMA likely mid- to high-160s; price > 50SMA—both confirm bullish alignment.

Classical patterns and SMC/Wyckoff context

• Pattern: Post 8/9–8/10 consolidation resolved into a bullish pennant/flag that just broke topside. Today’s breakout above 189–191 converts prior resistance into support (role reversal), setting a measured move objective toward upper 190s.
• Wyckoff/SMC: Clear Market Structure Shift to bullish with successive Breaks of Structure (BOS) on the 1h. Liquidity above 188/190 was swept and held; the next resting liquidity sits near 195 and 199–201. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) created on the impulse from 181.8 → 185.1 → 187.9; first FVG sits ~184.9–186.5 (unlikely to fully fill before a 195 test unless momentum cools sharply).

Pivot levels (classic) using 8/10 H/L/C (approx.)

• Pivot P ≈ 182.27
• R1 ≈ 186.54 (taken out)
• R2 ≈ 190.19 (reclaimed; now a support reference)
• R3 ≈ 194.5 (varies by formula; aligns with Fib 78.6 at 195.2) Interpretation: Price acceptance above R2 and migration toward R3 typically signals a trending session and often continuation into the next session, especially with rising volume.

Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From the 8/2 low, SOL likely finishing wave 3 of a 5-wave intraday sequence, with micro wave 4 pullback potential into 190–188, then wave 5 extension toward 195–199. Larger degree may be wave (C) of an A–B–C off the 8/2 low, with equality pointing ~200–201.

Keltner/Bollinger squeeze and regime shift

• Prior mid-August compression resolved into expansion. With Bollinger Width rising and price hugging the upper band while KC boundaries are exceeded, the current regime tends to persist 1–3 sessions. This supports a 24h continuation bias over immediate mean reversion.

Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Red flag 1: A sustained break and hourly close back below 189.5 would indicate a failed breakout, raising odds of a deeper mean reversion into 186 and potentially 184.9 (VWAP/Kijun/BB-mid).
• Red flag 2: Momentum stall at 193–195 with heavy upper wicks and falling volume—would prompt range trade between 188 and 195 before a more decisive move.
• Tail risk: Market-wide risk-off or headline shock could drive a fast test of 181.8 (prior pivot). Given the recent volatility reset, that scenario is lower probability in the next 24h but not negligible.

24-hour path scenarios (probabilities)

• Bullish base case (60%): Early pullback to 190.6 ±0.4 holds; push to 195.2; consolidation; extension probe into 198.5–199.5. Intraday high prints near 199 with late-day fade to 196–197.
• Balanced consolidation (25%): Chop 189–195, multiple tests of 190.6 support, momentum cools; next leg deferred, but structure remains intact for subsequent upside.
• Bearish failure (15%): Breakdown through 189.5; acceleration to 186.8–185.0 (fills FVG/VWAP). If buyers fail there, slide to 181.8 before stabilizing.

Trade plan and execution detail

• Entry rationale: Confluence of (i) breakout above multi-week resistance 189–191, (ii) 61.8% retracement reclaimed, (iii) intraday momentum/volume thrust, (iv) pivot R2 → R3 migration, and (v) extension mapping pointing to ~199–201 next.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy on a breakout-retest at 190.6 (tolerance 190.2–191.0). This leans on fresh support and lowers slippage versus chasing at 191.4.
• Risk management (not in schema fields): Stop below 186.8 (beneath 16:00 anchor and BB mid-area; also below minor liquidity shelf). Risk ≈ 3.8–4.0 points if filled at 190.6.
• Profit target: 198.9 (front-runs 7/21 high and just under round 199/200; aligns with liquidity magnet). Risk:Reward ≈ 1:2.1 to 1:2.3 depending on exact fill.
• Add-ons/alternatives: Momentum add only on decisive reclaim >195.5 with rising volume and strong L2; otherwise avoid overextension at the upper band.

Why 198.9 as target?

• Strong confluence: Prior 7/21 high (198.92), psychological proximity to 200, and the 1.0 extension objective (~200.9). Selling programs and profit-taking typically cluster just below round 200—198.5–199.5 is a statistically attractive exit zone.

Putting it all together

• With trend, momentum, volume, and multi-tool confluence favoring the bulls, the path of least resistance is higher. The most efficient execution is a buy-the-dip into the breakout retest at ~190.6, targeting ~198.9 over the next 24 hours, while respecting invalidation below ~186.8.

Predicted next-24h tape

• Early session: Pullback to 190.6 ±0.4, shallow bounce.
• Mid session: Drive toward 195.2 (78.6% Fib), minor consolidation.
• Late session: Liquidity sweep 198.0–199.5; possible wick toward 200.1 if momentum overshoots; settle 196–198.

Endnote

• If price instead accelerates immediately above 192.2 without pullback and volume expands, consider a momentum entry with tighter risk (using 190.2 as a trailing invalidation), but the breakout-retest remains the higher expectancy base case.