SOL coils under prior highs: buy the 198.8 pivot for a run at 206–209

Comprehensive multi-timeframe view using the provided OHLCV data only. I’ll proceed step by step, layering methods and cross-validating signals to build a 24-hour trading plan.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily trend: From the late-June capitulation low near 131.6 (2025-06-22) to the late-July peak at 205.87 (2025-07-22), SOL established a higher-high/higher-low structure. The sharp retrace into early August bottomed at 162.88 (2025-08-01), followed by a persistent recovery to today’s 200–204 range. The recovery has now retraced >78.6% of the entire 7/22→8/1 downswing, signaling strong dip absorption.
• Key levels in play:
  • Major resistance: 204.5–206.0 (7/22 prior high 205.87 and today’s intraday 204.47 test)
  • Near supports: 201.0–201.8 (intraday acceptance), 198.8 (today’s calculated pivot), 196.9 (today’s pullback low), 194.0 (intraday structure/volume pivot), 191.6 (session low)
  • Major support below: 186–189 cluster (late-July congestion and 61.8% retrace area of the 7/22→8/1 move)
• Intraday (hourly) structure on 8/13: A morning expansion from ~194 to 204.47, a swift pullback to 196.92 (14:00), and a reclaim to 201.83 (19:00), then closing near 200.35. This looks like a bull flag/ascending consolidation after a strong impulse.

2. Fibonacci mapping (objective levels)

• Swing used: High 205.70 (2025-07-22) to Low 162.88 (2025-08-01). Drop = 42.82.
  • 38.2% retrace = 179.25
  • 50% retrace = 184.29
  • 61.8% retrace = 189.33
  • 78.6% retrace = 196.52
• Price has cleared 196.5 and is now challenging the full retrace. This typically precedes a test of the origin (205.7). If 204.5–206 breaks cleanly, the next extension zone opens (measured move/projection 208–212 first, 214–216 next).

3. Classical pivots (based on today’s session data)

• Using today’s High=204.47, Low=191.57, Close=200.37:
  • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 198.80
  • R1 = 206.03; R2 = 211.70; S1 = 193.13; S2 = 185.96
• Price oscillated around/above P into the close. A pullback entry right near P (≈198.8) typically offers the best risk-reward for a trend-continuation day. Upside magnet levels for the next 24h: R1 (206.0) then R2 (211.7).

4. Moving averages (approximations from recent closes)

• 20-day SMA: Roughly high 170s to low 180s given the run from mid-July to early August; price is trading well above it, indicating a resumed uptrend.
• 50-day SMA: Likely around mid- to high-160s given June lows and July rally; 20 over 50 with price above both = bullish alignment.
• EMA ribbon (fast EMAs): On hourly, price reclaimed and is holding above recent intraday EMAs after the 14:00 dip; that’s typical of a trend day that digested gains and is poised for a second leg.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): In the low-to-mid 60s; not overbought, supportive of further upside. Coming off a strong impulse but not stretched to 70+.
• Hourly RSI: After the 204.47 spike, pullback to 196.9 relieved overbought conditions. Subsequent higher lows keep RSI constructive; room remains for another push.
• MACD (daily): Histogram turning up and likely above signal line since ~8/7; momentum shift is positive. On hourly, histogram cooled during the pullback and is re-expanding positively into the U.S. afternoon close.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band likely around high 170s/low 180s; price riding/above upper band indicates a strong thrust. Band expansion plus trend support often produces continuation; watch for band walk vs. sharp mean reversion. Given the fresh breakout attempt, continuation probability is higher unless a clear rejection candle forms near 205–206.
• ATR (14-day, approximate): Recent daily ranges 10–15 place ATR around ~12–13. From a 200 base, a 24h realization of +8 to +12 is plausible, implying reachable upside probes into 206–212 if momentum persists. Downside volatility similarly puts 195–196 within reach on a pullback.

7. Ichimoku view (qualitative from data path)

• Tenkan (9) likely ~186–191; Kijun (26) likely ~174–178. Price is above both, and the lagging span would be above price/clould given today’s move. Future cloud likely turning green. This is a classic bullish configuration with pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun favored buys; nearest Tenkan-proxy aligns with 191–194 zone, Kijun much lower.

8. Market profile/volume behavior (from supplied volumes)

• High-volume acceptance historically in 181–189; price moved through the 191–195 pocket quickly, suggesting a low-volume node (LVN) — typical of trend continuation zones. Today’s high intraday participation on upticks (notably 09:00 and 19:00 hours) indicates buyers defending new value above 198.
• The 196.9 reaction low held with subsequent accumulation near 199–201, implying buyers comfortable making a higher base as they aim for 204–206 retest.

9. Candlestick and intraday pattern recognition

• Today printed a clear impulse leg to 204.47, then a sharp but orderly pullback to 196.92, followed by a higher low and re-acceptance near 201–202. This is textbook bull-flag/ascending consolidation behavior with a measured move targeting 208–212 on a clean break above 204.5–206.0.
• The 13:00 candle’s upper wick flagged supply near 204–205; subsequent hours show absorption with no lower low — constructive for a second attempt.

10. Elliott Wave framing (heuristic)

• From the 8/1 low (162.88): Wave 1 advance into ~8/7–8/10 area (mid/upper 170s–180s), Wave 2 pullback into 8/11 (174.98), ongoing Wave 3 leg is today’s 200–204 push. If so, a shallow Wave 4 dip to the pivot (~198.8) is likely before a Wave 5 run to new swing highs (208–212, stretch 214–216). This aligns with the bull-flag measured move.

11. Wyckoff lens

• July–early August looks like re-accumulation after the July markup, with a spring at 162.88 (8/1) and a sign of strength rally into 200+. Today’s consolidation above the pivot is a last point of support (LPS) behavior, typically preceding continuation to resistance (205–206) and then a potential breakout.

12. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• Bullish thesis risks: Double-top failure at 204.5–206 producing a rejection and close back below 198.8 pivot; broader pullback toward 196.9 then 194.0. A decisive hourly close below 194 would warn of a deeper retrace into 191–189, disrupting the immediate long setup.
• Stop-placement logic (for reference): Below 195.4 (beneath 14:00 low structure and intraday liquidity shelf) gives the entry room to work without sitting under the major 191–194 demand cluster.

13. 24-hour probabilistic path

• Base case (55–60%): Early dip/retest to 198.5–199.5 holds, then a push to 204.5–206. A breakout attempts 206.0–208.5 with wicks toward 210–212 possible if momentum spikes.
• Bear case (25–30%): Failure to hold 198.8; price trades down to 196.9–195.5; if buyers defend there, chop resumes 195–201; if 194 breaks, rotation to 191–189 HVN.
• Low-probability tail (10–15%): Straight breakout through 206 at Asia open with limited pullback, continuation drive to 211–214 before New York, then consolidation.

Synthesis and plan

• Confluence for longs: Price above 20/50 MAs, daily momentum positive, >78.6% retrace reclaimed, intraday bull flag, pivot at 198.8 acting as balance point, R1 206 and R2 211.7 fit measured-move targets. Risk manageable with invalidation under ~195.4.
• Execution preference: Buy the dip into 198.8±0.5 with a take-profit into the 206–209 zone within 24h. Alternative: Momentum add on a clean break/hold above 206 with a target 211–212.

Positioning details

• Entry: 198.8 (classical pivot). That’s also near today’s value area where buyers repeatedly responded.
• Target: 208.8 (just below R2 cluster extension; also psychologically under 210 to improve fill odds during a fast move).
• Optional risk reference (not part of output fields): Protective stop ~195.4; that yields an approximate R:R ≈ (208.8−198.8)/(198.8−195.4) ≈ 10/3.4 ≈ 2.9.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy-the-dip. Expect a 24h retest of 204.5–206 with a good chance of an upside extension toward ~208–212 if that band breaks.