SOL at the 50% Line: Basing for a Pivot-to-R1 Rebound

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on SOLUSDT (USD)

Data window and context

• Instrument: Solana (SOL), USD
• Current price (last print): 189.1117
• Daily data range analyzed: 2025-05-19 to 2025-08-16
• Intraday sample: Hourly bars from 2025-08-15 21:00 to 2025-08-16 20:58
• Regime context: Strong July breakout (mid-190s to 205+), swift pullback, reattempt at highs (209.67 on Aug 14), subsequent correction to the 185–186 zone, now stabilizing around 189.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily market structure: Higher highs and higher lows since the Aug 1 swing low (162.88) culminating in a fresh swing high at 209.67 (Aug 14). The pullback to 185–186 (Aug 15–16) respects a classic 50% retracement of the Aug advance (details below), suggesting the primary uptrend remains intact, with a corrective dip underway or completed.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Over the last 24 hours, price oscillated 186.0–189.5 with a series of higher lows intraday; this is an early-stage ascending triangle/rounded base form against a flat resistance band ~189.3–189.5. A clean hourly close above ~189.6–190.0 would confirm a micro-breakout, aiming toward 191.8 then 194–195.
• Conclusion: Primary trend up, secondary pullback; intraday basing indicates rotation back in favor of bulls if support (185–186) holds.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~177.5 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~6.5% above the 20SMA → bullish bias.
• 9-day EMA (approx): ~186–187 (9-day simple is ~184.7; EMA slightly higher given recent strength). Price above the 9EMA → near-term momentum recovering.
• 21–50 day trend context: While exact 50SMA not computed tick-perfect, the 50D mean is likely mid-160s given June–July prices; SOL trades well above it → medium-term uptrend intact with bullish MA stack (short > medium > long).
• Implication: MA alignment favors buying dips rather than chasing rallies, unless a clean breakout triggers momentum continuation.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~66. Method: last 14 changes show average gain ~4.03 vs loss ~2.08 → RS ~1.94 → RSI ≈ 65–66. Interpretation: bullish momentum without overbought extremes; pullback cooled the oscillator from peak levels.
• Stochastic (qualitative): After pullback to 185–186, Stoch has likely turned up from mid levels; intraday Stoch is mid-high but not pinned → room higher on a breakout.
• MACD (qualitative): MACD line remains above signal on the daily timeframe from the Aug advance; histogram contracted on the pullback post-209.67, and is attempting to stabilize. A turn-up in histogram on the next 1–2 sessions is likely if price reclaims 191.8–194.
• CCI/RSI summary: Momentum reset, skew still positive. No bearish divergence visible at the current local lows.

4. Volatility and ranges

• 14-day ATR (computed from H-L ranges): ~10.86. Implies expected 24h move of roughly ±$10–11 from spot under current regime, i.e., a 178–200 envelope around 189.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) qualitative: Midline ~177.5; recent upper band likely around ~201 and lower ~154–155 given recent dispersion. Price is currently in the upper-middle of the envelope after a touch toward the mid-band area on the pullback → favorable for continuation if buyers press.
• Keltner Channels: Price is back within channels after expansion to 209; bandwidth still wide, consistent with ongoing elevated volatility.

5. Volume and flow

• Volume trend: Breakout days (Jul 21–22, Aug 12–14) printed large volumes into new highs. The Aug 15 pullback saw heavy but not capitulatory volume, then stabilization on lighter intraday turnover → suggests profit-taking rather than trend reversal.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend from Aug 1 with a minor dip post-209.67; no structural breakdown → accumulation bias remains.
• VWAP (intraday Aug 16): Given prints clustered ~188–189 and modest volumes, VWAP resides near 188.4–188.8. Spot ~189.1 sits slightly above intraday VWAP → small bullish tilt.
• MFI (qualitative): Not overbought; flows are normalizing after the pullback.

6. Key levels: classical, Fibonacci, and pivots

• Swing levels:
  • Major resistance/supply: 198–205 (pre-breakdown shelf and recent supply), and ATH zone of this leg: 209.7.
  • Near resistance: 189.5–190.0 (hourly lid), 191.8–192.0 (38.2% retracement revisit and local supply), 194.7–195.0 (Pivot R1 cluster), then 197–198.
  • Supports/demand: 185.8–186.3 (50% retrace/bounce zone), 183.8–184.7 (Kijun, prior intraday lows), 180.7–181.0 (61.8% retrace and pivot confluence), deeper 176–177.5 (20SMA region).
• Fibonacci mapping (Aug 1 low 162.88 to Aug 14 high 209.67; range 46.79):
  • 38.2%: 191.79 (tested and briefly undercut)
  • 50%: 186.28 (held; today’s basing around this)
  • 61.8%: 180.77 (next strong support if 186 fails)
• Ichimoku (9-26-52):
  • Tenkan ≈ 188.28, Kijun ≈ 184.73 → price above both.
  • Senkou A ≈ 186.5, Senkou B ≈ 168.3 → bullish cloud; price above Kumo → dominant uptrend signal intact.
• Daily classical pivots using Aug 15 (H 198.14, L 183.76, C 185.74):
  • Pivot P ≈ 189.21 (spot right at pivot → balance point)
  • R1 ≈ 194.67, R2 ≈ 203.59, R3 ≈ 209.04
  • S1 ≈ 180.29, S2 ≈ 174.84, S3 ≈ 165.92
• Donchian (20D): High 209.67; Low 158.48; current in upper half, favorable for trend continuation upon strength through 201–205.

7. Pattern recognition and price action

• Daily candles: Aug 15 printed a wide-range down day (bearish) but the follow-through on Aug 16 is muted with a small-bodied inside-type day developing near the 50% Fib. That is a potential harami/stabilization signal, especially when occurring at a major retracement and Kijun/20EMA neighborhood.
• Hourly: Constructive basing 186–189.5 with higher lows, forming an ascending triangle. A measured move out of 189.5 projects to ~192 initially, with extension toward 194–195 (coincident with R1) if momentum continues.
• Liquidity and sweep logic: Lows ~186.0 were tested repeatedly today without a decisive breakdown; liquidity likely built below 186 and above 190. A quick liquidity sweep to ~186.2–186.0 before breakout is plausible; conversely, rejection at 189.5–190 may force a retest of 187.

8. Advanced lenses

• Wyckoff mapping: After a markup to 209.7 (Buying Climax), the Aug 15 reaction (AR) pushed into support; today looks like a Secondary Test around the mid of the range. Holding 185–186 and pushing above 191.8 would mark Phase D (re-accumulation) toward the upper range (198–205). Failure below 186 would extend Phase B/C toward 181.
• Elliott wave sketch: 5-wave up from 162.9 to 209.7, with an A-wave down to ~185.8; currently in a B-wave bounce toward ~192–195. A shallow B that stalls under ~196 could precede a C-wave dip into ~181 before the higher timeframe uptrend resumes; a decisive break >198–201 would negate the deeper C-wave and favor immediate trend continuation.
• Regression/trendline: Uptrend line from Aug 1 aligns with mid-184s rising; current price sits above it, with today’s lows staying north of trend support.

9. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Buy-the-dip holds 185–186; price rotates through 189.5–190, tags 191.8, and stretches toward 194.5–195 (R1 cluster) within ATR. Expected range: 186.0–195.0. Close near upper third if momentum is healthy.
• Bearish alt (30%): Failure to clear 190 and loss of 186 intraday drags to 181–182 (61.8% retrace/pivot confluence). Range: 180.8–190.5. Would represent a B-failure/C-wave.
• Bullish extension (15%): Strong breakout above 195 on accelerating volume drives a squeeze to 197–199, with a tail spike possible toward ~200; less likely without a broader market tailwind given fresh overhead supply.

10. Confluences that matter for trade planning

• Confluence support: 50% Fib (186.28) + Tenkan (188.28 near) + Kijun (184.73) + today’s intraday higher lows around 186–187. This zone has repeatedly attracted buyers.
• Confluence resistance: Pivot R1 194.7, prior supply 191.8–192.0 and 197–198, and the heavy volume area under 200.
• Being at the daily pivot (≈189.21) with ATR ~10.9 favors buying slight dips into support rather than initiating shorts into support.

11. Risk management framing (informational)

• Ideal entry: Into 186.3–186.6 pullbacks (just above 50% Fib) to optimize R:R.
• Invalidation for the long idea: Clean hourly close below 185.5 or a daily close below ~184.7 (Kijun) increases risk of a deeper move to 180.8; a protective stop would typically be set 184.5–184.8 or under 180.5 depending on risk tolerance.
• Profit-taking: First scale 191.8–192.0; second target 194.5–195.0 (R1). Aggressive runners could aim 197–198 if momentum unfolds.

12. Bottom line and 24h outlook

• Trend: Up. Pullback: Healthy, to a 50% retrace. Intraday: Basing with a bullish lean. Indicators: Above 20SMA, Tenkan > Kijun and price above cloud; RSI mid-high but not stretched; ATR allows room to R1. Confluence strongly supports a tactical long-on-dip.
• 24h prediction: Dip toward 186.3–187.2, then advance toward 191.8 followed by 194–195 if resistance gives way. Probable 24h range: 186–195; tail risks 181 on the downside and 198 on the upside.

Decision and execution plan

• Bias: Buy the dip (Long) within 186.3–186.6 zone, targeting a 24h take-profit near 194.6–195.0, aligning with pivot R1 and intraday measured move projections.
• Rationale: Strong confluence support at 186, bullish higher timeframe structure, stabilization candle at key retracement, and an intraday ascending triangle. The risk of a sweep under 186 exists, but reward-to-risk is favorable with clearly defined invalidation points.