SOL poised for a pivot reversion: defending $181–$183 with eyes on $191

Summary of market structure and context

• Regime: SOL remains in a primary uptrend on the daily timeframe since the late-June base (~$131–$150) with higher highs/lows into the August spike (> $200). The last five sessions form a pullback within that uptrend.
• Current spot: $183.28 (intraday low $180.42, high $191.30). Price probed the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug impulse and bounced, then consolidated between $182–$185.
• 24h bias: Mildly bullish mean-reversion within a broader uptrend; base-building above $181–$182 with potential rotation back toward $188–$192.

Multi-timeframe price action

• Daily: After the Aug 12–13 breakout to $201.59 (daily close), Aug 14 printed a wide-range bearish day with a long upper wick (intraday high $209.67) — classic blow-off + reversal. Since then, price is retracing in an orderly fashion: closes 192.59 → 185.74 → 189.77 → 191.16 → today’s intraday ~$183. Price is testing mid-retrace supports without breaking the trend.
• 4h/1h: Sequence of lower highs since Aug 13, but today’s dip to $180.4 swept liquidity near the 50% retrace, then reclaimed $183. Micro-structure resembles a descending channel/flag with diminishing downside momentum and developing basing behavior around $182–$183.

Key levels and ranges (confluence-driven)

• Fibonacci (swing: Aug 1 low $158.48 to Aug 13 close $201.59; alt swing to Jul 22 high $205.70 yields similar zones): • 38.2%: ~$187.0 (recent pivot zone). • 50%: ~$181.5 (today’s low $180.4 tested just beyond). • 61.8%: ~$176.0 (major support; aligns with late July congestion and 21–50D MAs).
• Classical pivots (from Aug 17 H/L/C 195.44/187.72/191.16): • Pivot P ≈ $191.44. • S1 ≈ $187.44. • S2 ≈ $183.72. • S3 ≈ $179.72. Price tagged the S3 neighborhood ($180.42) and reverted toward S2/S1, typical of mean-reversion days.
• Horizontal supply/resistance: 189.7–195.2 (heavy supply; multiple inflections), 198–205 (major distribution block). Supports: 181–183 (50% fib + intraday base), 176–178 (61.8% + Kijun area), 171–172 (late July shelf).

Trend and moving averages

• SMA(20) ≈ $177.97 (computed). Price is above the 20D midline — bullish medium-term.
• SMA(10) ≈ $186.75 (computed). Price is below the 10D — short-term pullback within uptrend; mean-reversion target sits near $186–$187.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ $166–$170; 200D SMA (est.) well lower. Alignment 10D > 20D > 50D supports bullish regime despite tactical weakness.
• EMAs (est.): 8EMA ~ $186; 21EMA ~ $178. Price < 8EMA but > 21EMA — typical pullback zone before continuation.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: mid-zone (~50–55) and declining from overbought; not oversold, leaving room for a bounce to mid-60s if price reclaims $188–$191. On 4h, RSI rebounded from ~30s to mid-40s after the $180.4 sweep, signaling waning bearish momentum.
• MACD (12/26/9) daily: positive but rolling over since Aug 14; histogram contracting toward zero — suggests consolidation, not impulsive downside. 4h MACD showing bullish divergence vs price at the $180–$181 retest.
• Stochastics (daily): exiting mid-range; 1h/4h stoch curling up from oversold, consistent with near-term bounce attempts.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ $10.7 (computed from last 14 sessions). Expect a normal 24h swing of roughly ±$10 from the mean.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~$178 (20SMA). Upper ≈ ~$200, Lower ≈ $156 (est., SD ~ $11). Price near %B ≈ 0.6 — mid-to-upper band, typical for pullbacks in uptrends. A reversion to the 10SMA/upper mid-band ($186–$191) fits the ATR envelope.

Volume, flows, and OBV

• Volume peaked on the Aug thrust and during the Aug 14 reversal. Since then, declining volumes on the pullback — a constructive sign for a bull flag rather than distribution. OBV has retraced less than price since Aug 13; today’s low-volume drift down toward $181–$183 suggests supply is not aggressive.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price above a rising cloud; Lagging span above price/cloud. Tenkan (fast) ≈ high-180s; Kijun (base) ≈ mid-to-high 170s. Current price below Tenkan but above Kijun — classic pullback-to-basis structure. As long as price holds above Kijun (~$176–$178), trend health remains intact.

Market geometry and patterns

• Pullback structure resembles a descending channel/flag from $201–$209 highs to today’s $180s. A measured move breakout above $187.5–$189 opens a test of $191–$195.
• Liquidity sweep: The $180.4 intraday low cleared stops just under S3 and the 50% retrace, then reclaimed $183 — typical spring action that precedes a push back to the day’s VWAP/previous pivot.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): From Aug 1 low (~$158) impulse into early/mid-Aug peaks could be wave 3 culminating near $201–$206, with current pullback a wave 4 into $181–$176 support; sets up a potential wave 5 retest of $198–$205 later, after a basing phase. Over the next 24h, that implies chop-to-up drift rather than a fresh impulse down.

Anchored VWAPs (estimates)

• AVWAP from Aug 12 breakout sits around high-$180s; price below it suggests near-term undervaluation relative to the breakout cohort. AVWAP from Aug 1 rally start sits ~low-$170s, still supportive.

Pivot-based 24h scenarios (probabilistic)

• Base case (55%): Hold $181–$183, reclaim S1 ~$187.4, mean-revert toward daily Pivot ~$191.4; intraday range $181–$192; close near $188–$190.
• Bear case (30%): Lose $181.5 decisively, quick run to $176–$178 (61.8% fib + Kijun); range $176–$186.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong reclaim >$189.7 triggers squeeze to $195 (R1) with tails toward $197–$198.

Confluences supporting a bounce

• 50% Fibonacci retracement tested and reclaimed.
• Tag of classical S3 with rebound to S2/S1 zone (mean-reversion tendency).
• Price between bullishly aligned moving averages (above 20/50D, below 10D) — typical buy-the-dip zone in uptrends.
• 4h bullish momentum divergence and seller exhaustion at $180–$181.

Risk/invalidation

• A 4h close below $180 and especially a daily close < $176 would invalidate the bounce thesis and favors a deeper pullback to $172–$174. In that case, the setup flips to a momentum short on failed retests of $180.

Trading plan logic (next 24h)

• Tactic: Buy-the-dip/mean-reversion toward daily pivot. Prefer a limit buy slightly below spot to capture liquidity wicks but above invalidation bands.
• Entry zone: $182.5–$183.0 (just above S2 $183.7 with allowance for noise).
• Targets: First target $187.4 (S1), second/primary target $191.4 (daily Pivot), stretch $194–$195 (R1) if momentum firms.
• Protective risk (not part of schema but key): Stop below $175.8 (under 61.8% fib/Kijun and S3 cluster) if managing risk mechanically; for intraday, tighter tactical stop ~$179.7 (under S3) acceptable with reduced size.

24h prediction

• Expect SOL to trade $180–$192 with a bullish skew. High-probability path is a push to $187–$191 after defending $181–$183. Baseline expectation: gravitate toward ~$191 (pivot) by the end of the 24h window, provided $181.5 holds on a closing basis.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy dip for a mean-reversion pop toward $191 in the next 24 hours, with $180–$182 as the must-hold area. Confluence from Fibonacci, pivots, MAs, and intraday structure supports the long-side scalp-to-swing.