SOL Breakout Retest: Buy the $201 Dip for a Run Back to $209–$210

Market snapshot

• Asset: Solana (SOL)
• Timestamp: 2025-08-24 21:00 UTC
• Spot price: $203.92
• Context: Two-day breakout above the July highs ($205.9) with a sharp intraday rejection from $211.73 today. Price now hovering just above the prior day’s pivot area ($202.4) after a heavy-volume selloff candle.

Multi-timeframe structure and key levels

• Higher timeframe (1D):
  • Structure: Clear sequence of higher lows since 2025-08-18 ($183.07) and a new higher high today ($211.73), surpassing the July 22 swing high ($205.87). Trend is up.
  • Support zones: $200.0–$201.0 (38.2% retrace of 183.07 → 211.73), $197.4 (50% retrace), $194.0 (61.8% retrace), $191–$192 (prior consolidation), $185–$186 (20D mean zone).
  • Resistance zones: $206.9–$209.4 (hourly pivot cluster and R1), $211.7 (today’s high and supply), $214.8 (R2 estimate/upper band region).
• Intraday (1H):
  • Structure: Strong squeeze to $211.73 at 18:00, followed by a high-volume reversal that broke below the prior intraday higher low (~$206.9). Near-term structure shifts to corrective within a larger daily uptrend.
  • Volume: The 19:00 UTC candle showed the day’s heaviest selling, closing near lows ~$203.9. Subsequent hours have been stabilizing just above $203–$204.

Classical indicator suite

• Moving averages (1D):
  • 20SMA ≈ $185–$190 (est.), 50SMA ≈ high-$170s, 200SMA well below. Price is decisively above 20/50/200 SMAs; slopes are up. Bullish backdrop.
  • 8/21 EMA ribbon (est.): 8EMA > 21EMA, both rising. Bullish momentum regime.
• RSI:
  • Daily RSI: Mid-to-high 60s (est.). Positive momentum but not overbought, leaves room to push $208–$212 again.
  • Hourly RSI: Rebalanced from overbought to neutral (~45–50 est.) after the $211.7 rejection, consistent with a pullback within trend.
• MACD:
  • Daily: Bullish cross above zero with a rising histogram since 2025-08-20, supporting continuation.
  • Hourly: Momentum turned down on the reversal; histogram contracting toward zero. Typical pullback signal within a daily uptrend.
• Stochastic (1D/1H):
  • Daily near upper quadrant but curling; Hourly reset from overbought; suggests dip potential toward $200–$202 before a fresh attempt higher.
• Bollinger Bands (1D):
  • Mid-band (20SMA) ≈ mid-$180s; upper band ≈ low-$214s (est.). Price tapped the upper band area (> $210) and rejected; currently below upper band, often a “breathe-and-retry” setup. Room remains toward $209–$212 if bid returns.
• ATR (14D):
  • Elevated, ~$13–$15 range estimate. Implies day-to-day swings of 6–8% are on the table; $200–$210 range in 24h is plausible.
• ADX (1D):
  • Rising through mid-20s (est.). Trend strength is building; DI+ above DI-. Favors buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts.

Ichimoku (1D, overview)

• Price above Kumo; future cloud tilting up. Tenkan (9-midpoint) likely around $198–$201; Kijun (26-midpoint) ~$183–$186. Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou above price. Textbook bullish state with potential Tenkan pullback magnet around $200.

Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volume expanded on 8/22–8/24, validating the upside breakout attempt.
• 1H VWAP (today) likely sits ~$206–$207 after the strong up-then-down sequence; price is below VWAP, reflecting intraday seller control. A reversion toward VWAP is a common next leg if $202–$204 holds.
• Volume nodes: High activity around $205–$206.5 and $208–$209; a fresh node formed near $203–$204 on the selloff. Expect chop between $203–$209 until a decisive break.

Support/resistance, pivots, and Fibonacci

• Classic pivots from 2025-08-23 (H=207.84, L=195.37, C=203.94):
  • Pivot (P) ≈ $202.38
  • R1 ≈ $209.39
  • S1 ≈ $196.93
  • R2 ≈ $214.85
• Price is slightly above P; base case is oscillation between P and R1 if $202–$204 holds. R1 aligns with intraday supply at $209–$210.
• Fib retrace of 183.07 → 211.73:
  • 38.2%: $200.78 (prime support)
  • 50%: $197.40
  • 61.8%: $194.03
• Confluence: $200.7–$201.2 zone combines Fib 38.2%, Tenkan proximity, psychological $200, and prior breakout retest. High-probability dip buy area.

Price action and candlestick context

• Today’s 1H: Bearish engulfing reversal from $211.7 with a long-bodied sell candle and follow-through to ~$204; large upper wick on the daily if it closes near current levels. This typically signals a near-term pause, not necessarily a full reversal, when the higher timeframe trend is strong.
• Liquidity/stop dynamics: Clear liquidity above $211 got filled and rejected; resting stops likely below $200 round-number. A quick sweep into $199–$201 then snap-back is a common pattern.

Elliott wave read (heuristic)

• From $183.1 (8/18) to $200.7 (8/22) as wave 1, pullback to ~$195.4 (8/23) wave 2, rally to $211.7 wave 3, now wave 4 unfolding toward 38.2–50% retrace ($200.8–$197.4). A final wave 5 push could target $210–$214 if support holds.

Regression and mean reversion

• 10–20 session linear regression channel slopes up; today’s drawdown has brought price closer to the regression mean from a +1σ reading earlier, setting up a mean-revert pop toward $206–$209.

Risk matrix and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Defend $200–$202 (Pivot/Fib 38.2), then grind higher toward $206.5 → $209.4 (R1). Range expectation: Low $200–$201, High $209–$211.
• Bear case (25%): Inability to hold pivot leads to a stop-run below $200 toward $197.4 (50% Fib) before stabilization. Range: $197–$206. This would not invalidate the daily uptrend unless $194 breaks.
• Bull extension (20%): Quick reclaim of $206.9–$207 and strong bid through $209.4 opens a retest of $211.7; if momentum persists, a probe to $214–$215 (R2/upper band) is possible.

Synthesis and trade logic

• Trend: Daily uptrend intact, ADX rising — favors longs.
• Momentum: Daily MACD/RSI constructive; hourly reset — favors buying dips, not chasing.
• Levels: $200.7–$201.2 is high-confluence support (Fib 38.2 + pivot proximity + Tenkan pullback + round number). Resistance/TP magnet at $209–$210 (R1, supply shelf).
• Expectation: A shallow further dip into $201 ± 0.5 followed by a rebound toward $209–$210 within 24h, assuming no broader market shock.

Risk management notes (operational)

• Ideal entry: Buy limit around $201.2 allows participation on the likely liquidity sweep. If price front-runs at $202–$203, a partial scale-in is optional, but the optimal single level is near $201.2.
• Stop (not required by prompt but prudent): Below S1/structure at $196.8–$197.0 to stay under the 50% Fib. This gives a reward:risk ~1.8–2.0 for TP at $209.4.
• Take profit: $209.4 aligns with R1 and the $209–$210 supply pocket, improving odds of fill.

24-hour price path forecast

• Probable low: $200.5–$201.5 (brief stop run possible toward $199.8)
• Probable high: $209.0–$211.0
• Bias: Buy-the-dip; consolidation then push toward R1.

Conclusion

• The dominant daily uptrend, supportive breadth/momentum, and strong confluence at $200.7–$201.2 favor a long setup targeting a move back into the $209–$210 supply. A dip buy is preferred over a market chase given the fresh intraday rejection and VWAP overhead.