SOL poised for a second-leg push: buy the 237 retest, aim for 247 on a 242 breakout

Comprehensive multi-method technical analysis on SOL (current price: $238.02)

Summary view (next 24h): Bias moderately bullish. Expect a retest of 236.5–237.5 as support, followed by an attempt to break through 241–242. If 242 clears on rising volume, an extension toward 244.5–247.0 is likely. Failure to hold 236.5 would risk a pullback to 234.3–233.0, with deeper support near 231.9 (Fib 23.6%).

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher highs/higher lows since the Aug 19 swing low (176.11) and a powerful leg into the Sep 14 high (249.12). Recent action is a shallow pullback (−5.5% off the high) that held above first-tier supports and rebounded intraday.
• Key daily levels: • Resistance: 241.1 (today’s H), 242.3–244.1 (Sep 12–13 zone), 249.1 (swing high/liquidity) • Support: 238.0 (current pivot/round/trader anchor), 236.4–236.9 (intraday VWAP cluster), 235.3 (hourly pivot from 05:00), 233.9 (hourly base), 231.9 (Fib 23.6% of 176→249), 230.5 (Sep 15 low)
• Intraday structure (hourly): Morning drift to 233.9, heavy-volume flush to 233.3 at 18:00, then sharp reversal: 19:00–20:00 push to 241.1 and settle ~238. The flush-and-reclaim pattern plus higher close on the hour aligns with accumulation and a likely second push.

2. Trend and moving averages

• SMA20 (approx): ~216.7; price is ~9.8% above—healthy uptrend, not excessively stretched vs BB upper.
• SMA50 (approx): high 190s/low 200s; SMA200 (approx): mid/high 170s. Multi-timeframe alignment (price > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200) confirms trend.
• EMAs (approximation): 9/21-day EMAs rising; price above both after reclaim—momentum supportive. Any pullback to the rising 9–21 EMA ribbon (roughly low/mid 230s) would likely see buyers.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: low 60s—bullish, not overbought. Room to advance toward upper 60s on a breakout.
• MACD (daily): Above zero line with a recent histogram contraction during consolidation; today’s intraday thrust hints at re-expansion to the upside if price holds >238 and reclaims 242.
• Stochastic (daily): Mid-to-high range; room for a renewed up-leg before traditional overbought extremes.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily estimate: ~11–12. Implies a typical 24h swing capacity that comfortably spans 236→247.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~216.7; upper estimated ~245–246; lower ~187–190. Price is in the upper half but below the upper band, allowing a push into 244–246 without band breach.

5. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price > cloud; span A > span B (bullish Kumo).
• Tenkan (9-period mid) ~223; Kijun (26-period mid) ~213. Price trading above both: classic bullish alignment.
• Chikou span above price and above cloud suggests trend continuation conditions remain intact.

6. Fibonacci analysis

• Primary leg: Aug 19 low 176.11 → Sep 14 high 249.12. • 23.6%: 231.89 (tested/reclaimed—bullish shallow retracement) • 38.2%: 221.23 • 50%: 212.62 • 61.8%: 204.00
• The pullback respected the 23.6–25% pocket and bounced—typical of strong trends. Continuation targets from a 242 breakout: 0.618–0.786 extension into 246–249 initially; full measured move targets the prior high and potential marginal new highs if momentum expands.

7. Volume, OBV/MFI, and VWAP

• Daily volume spiked on the run-up and stayed constructive on dips. Post-pullback sessions show healthy turnover, implying rotations rather than distribution.
• OBV trend (qualitatively) rising since early September; no obvious negative divergence on the latest rebound.
• MFI likely mid-high but not extreme—consistent with sustained bid.
• Intraday VWAP (today) estimated ~236.9–237.5. Current price slightly above VWAP; a VWAP retest that holds is a classic long trigger.

8. Pivot points (derived from Sep 16 H/L/C: 240.68/231.87/236.99)

• P ≈ 236.51; R1 ≈ 241.15; R2 ≈ 245.32; R3 ≈ 249.95
• Price is above P and already tested near R1. A base above P favors rotation to R1/R2. Confluence: R2 at 245.3 aligns with upper Bollinger vicinity; R3 aligns with the prior high region.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag/ascending consolidation after the 249 high. The 230.5–242.6 range forms a handle-like structure.
• Intraday: Breakout attempt to 241.1 followed by a modest pullback to 238—typical of a pause before a second leg if buyers defend 236.5–237.5.

10. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• The 176→249 impulse reads as a 5-wave or extended 3. The 230–236 pullback is a minor wave (iv) or a-b-c. Current recovery could be the start of a minor wave (v) targeting a retest of 246–249. Invalidated below ~229–231 where the pullback would deepen beyond a typical (iv) range.

11. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX likely >25 on daily given the strong run. Even if DI+ compressed during consolidation, the structure suggests trend continuation odds > mean reversion.

12. Liquidity and stop clusters

• Resting liquidity above 242.6 (recent highs) and 244.1; a sweep there could accelerate toward 246.5–247.0.
• Below, liquidity pockets near 236.2–236.5 and 233.9; deeper stops likely around 231.8–230.5.

13. Scenario mapping (24h)

• Bullish (55%): Hold 236.5–237.5, rotate to 241–242, break to 244.5–247.0. Close near 244 ±1.
• Base (30%): Chop 234.8–241.5 with VWAP gravity around 237–238; no decisive break.
• Bearish (15%): Lose 236.5 and 234.3 on volume → test 231.9; weak bounce toward 233–235.

14. Risk management notes

• For longs, invalidation if we get a full hourly acceptance below 236.0 and especially below 234.3; hard stop tactical below 231.8 (Fib 23.6% and below recent demand).
• R:R example: Entry 237.2, TP 246.9 (+9.7), stop 231.8 (−5.4) → R:R ≈ 1.8:1; improves to >2:1 if scaling out 244–245 and trailing.

15. Confluence checklist

• Trend: Up on all key MAs (check)
• Momentum: Positive and resetting, room to run (check)
• Volatility: Room below BB upper (check)
• Structure: Shallow pullback, higher lows, intraday reclaim (check)
• Levels: P>236.5, R1/BB/UH confluence 241–246 (check)
• Volume: Constructive, no distribution signature (check)

Outlook and actionable plan

• Bias: Buy dips above 236.5; momentum add on 241.3–241.5 breakout.
• 24h path: Expect early retest of 236.5–237.5; if defended, push to 241–242 then extension to 244.5–247.0. Failure below 236.0 opens 234.3 and 231.9 tests.

Trade specification (single-ticket version)

• Direction: Buy (Long)
• Optimal Open (limit on dip): 237.20
• Take Profit (24h objective): 246.90
• Suggested protective stop (informational): 231.80 (not part of the required fields)

Prediction (next 24h): Gradual grind higher with breakout attempts; base case close in the 243–245 area if 242 clears, or consolidation 236–241 if not. Upside tail risk to 247 on momentum expansion; downside tail risk to 231.9 if 236 fails on volume.