SOL poised to extend rebound: Buy the retest for a run at 219–222

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect continuation toward 215.4–219.5, with a likely intraday pullback to retest 212.6–213.3 support. Stretch target 221–222.6 if momentum persists. Risk of fade back to 209.5–211 on failed breakout.
• Plan: Buy the pullback (neckline retest) around 212.9; take profit into 221.8 where multiple resistances cluster.
• Context: SOL rebounded strongly from the 192.1 swing low (Sep 25) and reclaimed 206/210/212 levels on rising momentum and improving breadth.

Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: After topping at 253.2 (Sep 18), SOL sold off to 192.1 (Sep 25), then formed a V-shaped rebound. We now have a higher low versus 192 and successive higher closes (205.35 on Sep 26, 210.74 on Sep 28, 214.30 today), signaling a nascent uptrend resumption within a larger pullback. The 192–198 zone acted as demand; 205–207 and 210–213 flipped to support.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Clean sequence of HH/HL from ~206.9 to 214.3. Breakout candle at 14:00 UTC pushed to 212.64, then constructive consolidation and push to new session highs at 214.30 into the close. The breakout pivot/neckline sits at 212.6–213.0; that’s the key level to buy on retests.

Key support and resistance (confluence)

• Supports: 212.6–213.3 (breakout/neckline), 210.7–211.0 (prior close and intraday base), 209.3–209.7 (hourly shelf), 206.9–207.2 (hourly low/23.6% fib), 205.3 (Sep 26 close).
• Resistances: 214.4 (late-Aug pivot), 215.4 (38.2% retrace of 253.2→192.1), 217.25/219.52 (Sep 9 close/high liquidity), 222.6 (50% retrace), 223.99 (Sep 10 close). Expect stop liquidity above 217.3 and 219.5.

Fibonacci mapping (swing high 253.2 to swing low 192.1)

• 23.6% ≈ 206.5 (reclaimed)
• 38.2% ≈ 215.4 (immediate overhead)
• 50% ≈ 222.6 (stretch target within 24–48h)
• 61.8% ≈ 229.9 (unlikely in next 24h without a catalyst)

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) Daily: Likely recovered toward the neutral-to-bullish band (~50–55), rising from oversold conditions after the 192 low; rising RSI alongside higher lows supports continuation.
• RSI(14) Hourly: Hugging bullish zone (55–65+). Staying above 50 on pullbacks favors trend continuation. A brief reset toward 45–50 on a 212.6 retest would be optimal for a fresh leg up.
• MACD Daily: Histogram contracting toward zero with a budding bullish crossover risk in the coming sessions; price-action already front-running the signal.
• MACD Hourly: Positive and expanding on the afternoon breakout; modest pullback would likely reset without trend damage.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily EMAs: Price reclaimed fast EMAs (8/10) and is pressuring the 21EMA zone; the 20SMA sits slightly above spot (approx high-teens/low-220s), providing a mean-reversion magnet into 218–223.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55): Bullish stack with price riding above the 21/55; pullbacks into the 21/55EMA cluster around 212–213 should attract dip buyers.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands Daily: Mid-band (20SMA) likely around the low-220s; with price below-to-near the mid-band, mean reversion points higher. Bandwidth has compressed versus mid-September; a re-expansion favors upside toward 218–223.
• ATR(14) Daily: Estimated ~10–12; a +1 ATR move from 214 implies 224–226 is feasible but toward the upper end of expectations. Baseline expectation: a 6–9 point advance if momentum sustains.

Volume and flow

• Daily: The rebound from 192 featured strong buy volume, then constructive follow-through. No heavy distribution near 210–214; supply above 217–219 may be the next test.
• Intraday: Breakout at 14:00 UTC printed elevated volume; subsequent pushes were not sold aggressively. OBV on lower timeframes is rising, confirming accumulation.

VWAP and anchored references

• Session VWAP: Price finished above VWAP throughout the latter half of the session, with shallow deviations on dips—healthy trend behavior.
• Anchored VWAP from the Sep 25 low often tracks in the low-212s; price holding above that on retests is bullish and supports the 212.6–213.3 buy zone.

Ichimoku

• 1H: Price above a thin, turning-green Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun and price > both baselines. A Kijun pullback toward ~211–212 would be standard before continuation. Future cloud tilting up supports trend.
• 1D: Price is below prior highs but likely above/near conversion lines; cloud resistance overhead aligns with 218–223, matching fib and prior supply.

Pattern diagnostics

• Inverse head-and-shoulders on the 1H: Left shoulder ~209–210, head ~206.9–207.0, right shoulder ~209–210; neckline ~212.6. Clean breakout and early post-break consolidation; measured move points to 217–219 initially.
• Bull flag variant: The advance from ~206.9 to 214 with brief flags suggests continuation once 215.4 is cleared.

Liquidity, order blocks, and fair value gaps

• Untapped liquidity pools sit above 217.25 and 219.52 (prior swing close/high). A sweep into that zone is probable within the next 24h.
• A small FVG formed on the breakout toward 212.6–213.1; fills into this area would be a high-probability long setup.
• Prior sell-side liquidity beneath 209.9–210.3 remains, but market hasn’t shown intent to reach for it unless 212.6 fails decisively.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From the 192.1 pivot, a 5-wave intraday impulse may be underway: wave 3 likely extends into 214–216, wave 4 pullback toward 212.6–213.3, wave 5 push to 217.5–219.5. Post-impulse consolidation could then target 221–223 in a larger corrective rally.

Confluence and probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Retest 212.6–213.3, then advance to 216–219 with intraday rejection wicks near 215.4/217.3/219.5; day closes near 216–218.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Strong momentum break through 219.5, tagging 221–222.6 (50% fib) on a volume expansion day.
• Bear fade (≈25%): Failure at 215.4 leads to a drift back to 211–212; deeper risk only if 209.7 breaks, opening 206.9 retest.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Entry: Buy the pullback into 212.9 (neckline retest and anchored VWAP area). If not filled, an alternative is a momentum add on a clean 215.6–216 reclaim with strong tape, but primary plan is buy-the-dip.
• Take profit: 221.8 to front-run the 50% retracement at 222.6 and the Sep 10 close cluster around 224. This captures the likely 24h range expansion while avoiding the densest supply.
• Invalidation (risk concept): A decisive hourly close below 209.7 would weaken the setup and shift bias to range/mean reversion; below 206.9 invalidates the immediate bullish structure. Consider placing a stop below 209.5 if executing the plan.

Bottom line

• Momentum, structure, and confluence favor a buy-the-dip approach. Expect a 215.4 test and, if cleared, a run toward 217.3/219.5 with a realistic shot at 221–222.6 within 24h.

Note: This is a tactical view based on provided data; no guarantee of outcomes. Manage risk and position sizing accordingly.