SOL poised for a breakout retest: buy the dip at 229.7 for a push toward 241–244

Technical outlook for SOL across multiple timeframes, with a 24h trading plan and price targets

1. Market structure and trend (Daily and Hourly)

• Structure: After the mid‑September peak near 253 and the late‑September washout to 192.38 (9/25), SOL put in a sequence of higher lows (200–205–208–213–221) and higher highs (210–214–221–233). Today’s push to 233.61 extends the uptrend and breaks above the late‑September supply shelf around 228–229.
• Daily trend: Bullish. Price reclaimed the 20/50‑day zones and is accelerating. The 9/21‑EMA ribbon on daily has turned up and spread is widening, indicating momentum. Structure suggests a continuation toward 240–244 resistance if pullbacks hold above 226–229.
• Hourly trend: Bullish and constructive. Breakout during 18:00–19:00 UTC, followed by a tight consolidation around 232 with shallow dips bought. Pullback risk remains to 229–227 for a classic breakout retest before the next leg.

2. Key support and resistance zones

• Immediate resistance: 236.5–238.0 (minor supply and measured move), 240.5–242.6 (prior daily supply cluster from 9/12–9/14), 244.8–247.7, and 253.2 (cycle high) above.
• Immediate support: 232.0 (intraday pivot), 229.0–229.5 (breakout shelf and prior daily high cluster around 228.8), 226.5–227.2 (hourly MA confluence / R1 retest), 223.8–224.2 (23.6% retrace of the 192→233 leg), then 221.7 (10/1 close pivot). Deeper support: 214–217 (daily range base) if a sharp risk‑off move hits.

3. Moving averages (approximations)

• Daily: Price > 20‑DMA (~211), > 50‑DMA (~205–207), > 200‑DMA (well below, ~170s–180s). Bullish stack with upward slope. The 20/50 bull cross already supportive.
• Hourly: 20/50/200‑EMA trend ribbon rising; price spent most of the session above the 20/50 and well above the 200, signaling strong momentum with buy‑the‑dip behavior likely near 226–229 where the 50/200 EMA catch up.

4. Momentum indicators

• RSI (14D): Rising, likely mid‑60s. Bullish but not extremely overbought; supports continuation with room to test 240–244. Hourly RSI ran hot on breakout then cooled during consolidation — a healthy reset.
• Stoch RSI (H1): Pulled back from overbought and re‑cycling; a renewed cross up from mid‑range during a dip to 229–231 would be a tactical long trigger.
• MACD (Daily): Bullish cross post‑192 low with rising histogram; momentum expansion phase intact. Hourly MACD has flattened after the surge, typical of a pause before another push if support holds.
• ADX/DMI (Daily): ADX climbing into low‑mid 20s with +DI > −DI suggests a strengthening trend rather than a late‑stage blow‑off.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D): Expanding, estimated ~11–13. Implies a typical daily swing window near ±5% from mean. From 232, a 1x ATR upside probes 243–245; downside probes 220–221 on a risk‑off day.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Basis ~211; price riding the upper band, upper band expanding toward mid‑230s. Riding the band usually favors trend continuation with intermittent squeezes.

6. Volume and flows

• Daily volumes rose on up‑days from 9/26 onward; up‑move participation looks healthier than on prior bounces. Today’s breakout hour (18:00 UTC) printed the highest intra‑day volume, followed by constructive digestion on lighter volume — classic bullish breakout behavior.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending higher since 9/26, confirming price.

7. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily)

• Price above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; cloud forward span is green and thickening. Kijun estimated ~209–213, far below current price — trend support is broad. Pullbacks toward 226–229 remain shallow relative to Kijun, consistent with buy‑the‑dip setups.

8. Fibonacci maps

• Macro swing (147.6 → 253.2): The 61.8% retrace is ~188, and the late‑September low at 192.4 bounced near the golden pocket — constructive longer‑term signal.
• Current leg (192.4 → 233.6):
  • 23.6%: ~223.9
  • 38.2%: ~217.9
  • 50%: ~213.0
  • 61.8%: ~208.7 Shallow pullbacks to 229–224 would keep momentum intact; deeper to 218 still acceptable yet less likely in the next 24h if trend persists.
• Fib extensions from the 208.7 higher‑low zone project 1.0–1.272 near 236.5–244, aligning with the next resistance cluster.

9. Classical pivots (based on 10/1 H/L/C ~221.68/206.62/221.68)

• Pivot P ≈ 216.66; R1 ≈ 226.70; R2 ≈ 231.71; R3 ≈ 246.77.
• Price is consolidating just above R2; typical behavior: retest R1–R2 band (226.7–231.7) then attempt R3. This favors a buy‑the‑dip plan into 229–230 with targets below the R3 band (241–244) in the next 24h.

10. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (approx, 10/2): ~226–227. Price is trading ~2% above VWAP; pullbacks toward 229–227 are likely defended by intraday trend followers.
• Anchored VWAP from the 9/25 low (192.4) is estimated ~211–214; the large gap above reflects strong trend control by buyers.

11. Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle: Multiple rejections near 228–229 through late September resolved upward today; classic measured move targets mid‑230s initially and then 240–244 if continuation holds.
• Cup‑and‑handle variant: The mid‑September left rim (~240–244), late‑September base (~192–205), and recent handle around 214–221. Today’s breakout begins the right‑side fill toward 240–244.

12. Elliott wave (tactical)

• From 192.4: Wave 1 to ~213, Wave 2 to ~200, extended Wave 3 into ~233, a shallow Wave 4 retest toward 229–227 would be typical, followed by Wave 5 probing 240–244. Invalidation short‑term below ~221 (overlap into prior wave 1 range), which is well below our proposed entry.

13. Regression channel and mean reversion

• Short‑term upward regression channel slope is positive; price currently oscillates near the upper band. A drift to the channel midline (229–230 area on the next few hours) before another expansion leg is the highest‑probability path.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Pullback to 229–230, hold above 227, then grind higher into 236–242. Intraday high potential 241–244; low 227–229; close in upper third (236–240).
• Bullish extension (25%): Minimal dip; momentum continuation above 233.6 toward 238–242 quickly, with spike risk to 244–246 if liquidity is thin.
• Bearish risk (15%): Failed retest; break below 226 leads to 224 and possibly 221.7. Would reassess if hourly closes sustain below 226.

15. Risk management and trade construction

• Entry: Prefer limit buy on a breakout retest at 229.7 (sits inside prior resistance turned support and near hourly EMA cluster). Alternative momentum add above 236 on strength if missed.
• Stop (not required for output but relevant): 224.9 (below R1/EMA shelf and under the 23.6% Fib), giving room for wick noise.
• Target (TP): 241.8 (just below 242.3 daily resistance and within ATR). This captures the likely move into the 240–244 supply without getting cute at the figure.
• R:R (indicative): (241.8 − 229.7) / (229.7 − 224.9) ≈ 12.1 / 4.8 ≈ 2.5:1.

Conclusion and 24h prediction

• Bias: Buy dips. Structure, momentum, and breadth favor continuation after a shallow retest. Expect a dip‑and‑push path: low 227–229, high 241–244 within 24h, provided 226 holds on hourly closes. Therefore, the optimal plan is a limit buy near 229.7 with a target near 241.8.