SOL coiled above the pivot: buy the 226.9 dip for a run at 235–236 in the next 24 hours

Solana (SOL) — multi-timeframe, indicator-stacked technical blueprint and 24-hour path projection

1. Market structure and context

• Regime: After a late-September liquidation to ~192–205, SOL re-established an uptrend through early October (breakout to 234.86 on Oct 2), followed by a pullback to the 220 area and a fresh intraday thrust to ~229 today. Structure shows higher highs/higher lows vs. late September; the near-term pullback appears corrective within a broader bullish phase.
• Current price: 228.00 (approx), sitting above the key 221–223 pivot band and below overhead resistance at 233–236.
• 24h baseline expectation: Continuation bias up into 231–236 unless 225.3 (daily pivot) fails. R1 at ~230.23, R2 at ~239.97 defines stretch potential if momentum persists.

2. Timeframe-by-timeframe trend read

• Daily trend: Up since late Sep. The 20-day average is rising and below price (bullish). Price is above key daily baselines and the Ichimoku cloud, favoring dips as buys.
• 4h proxy (derived from daily+hourly): Pullback concluded near 220–221; impulse leg launched today through 223–229 with strong hourly candles (17:00–19:00 UTC), indicative of initiative buying. Short-term trend up.
• 1h: Strong impulse from ~223.6 to ~229.2, then tight consolidation around 228. Price remains above intraday VWAP/EMA stacks, with momentum not yet fully spent. A 38.2–50% retracement of the 1h impulse aligns near 227.0–226.4 for an optimal dip buy.

3. Key levels: supports, resistances, supply/demand

• Immediate supports: 226.9–227.0 (1h 38.2% retrace), 225.3 (daily pivot P), 222.0–223.0 (high-volume pivot / 20SMA vicinity), 220.0–220.5 (yesterday’s close / demand shelf), 218.6 (38.2% retrace of Sep 25–Oct 2 swing).
• Immediate resistances: 230.2 (R1), 231.7–233.0 (swing congestion), 234.9–236.8 (major supply: Oct 2 high 234.86, Oct 3 high 236.79). Extended: 239.97 (R2), 242–249 (late-Sep supply zone), 253 (R3 vicinity from pivots and prior peak area).

4. Moving averages (daily)

• 20SMA ≈ 222.07 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 228 > 20SMA: bullish tactical bias; middle Bollinger also around this zone.
• 50SMA (approx) ≈ 209–211. Price well above: medium-term uptrend intact.
• 100SMA (approx) ≈ 198–200. Price well above: long-term uptrend structure preserved.
• Slope: 20/50 both rising; 20 above 50 (continuation-friendly). Pullbacks to 222–223 should attract dip buyers.

5. Momentum and oscillators (daily)

• RSI-14 ≈ 58 (derived from last 14 changes). Above 50, below 70: bullish momentum without overbought stress. Room to run toward mid-60s if price tests 234–236.
• Stochastic (14) ≈ 79% (close near top of 14-day range). Momentum strong, not extreme yet.
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative: Positive or near-zero with today’s uptick turning the histogram up; poised for a renewed bull cross or strengthening of the existing one as price reclaims 230+.
• CCI (20) qualitative: Likely positive given price above 20SMA and strong upward deviation; supports continuation until resistance.
• DMI/ADX qualitative: +DI > -DI with ADX in low/mid-20s—an emerging/rebuilding trend, not overextended.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR-14 (daily) ≈ 11.7. Typical 24h envelope from 228 implies 216–240 as an approximate 1-ATR band. Base case targets within this range are realistic (R1 230.2; 233–236 cluster; stretch to R2 ~240 if momentum expands).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~222.1; upper estimated high 240s; lower ~195. Price above mid-band and traveling upward within the channel—near-term drift to the upper half consistent.
• Keltner Channels: Price pressing mid-to-upper band segment on daily and upper on 1h; trend-followers likely stay long unless centerline (EMA) breaks.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9-mid) ≈ 220.95; Kijun-sen (26-mid) ≈ 222.65. Price 228 > Tenkan and > Kijun: bullish alignment.
• Senkou Span A (lead1) ≈ 221.8; Senkou Span B (lead2) (52-mid) estimated low- to mid-210s. Cloud below price; forward cloud likely mildly bullish. Pullbacks into 221–223 should be supported by cloud baselines.

8. Fibonacci alignment and confluence

• Swing (Sep 25 low 192.38 → Oct 2 high 234.86): key retracements
  • 23.6%: ~224.84 (already reclaimed)
  • 38.2%: ~218.64 (recent support vicinity)
  • 50%: ~213.62 (major fallback support)
  • 61.8%: ~208.58 Price’s bounce near 220–221 aligns with 38.2% zone → constructive.
• Intraday impulse (today ~223.56 → ~229.17): pullback zones
  • 38.2%: ~227.03
  • 50%: ~226.37
  • 61.8%: ~225.69 Ideal dip-buy pocket sits 225.7–227.0; front-run at ~226.9–227.0 offers a high-probability tag.

9. Pivots (classic) using Oct 7 H/L/C (235.086/220.455/220.483)

• P = 225.34
• R1 = 230.23, R2 = 239.97, R3 = 254.60
• S1 = 215.60, S2 = 210.71, S3 = 196.08 Current price ≈ 228 above P, below R1. The playbook: base above P → probe R1; if accepted above R1, path opens toward 233–236 then R2.

10. Volume, flows and tape context

• Daily volumes expanded on inflection points (Sep 22–26 drop/recovery, Oct 1–2 breakout). Oct 7’s sell-volume was large but failed to break the 220–221 demand decisively; today’s impulsive recovery with concentrated hourly prints (17:00–19:00 UTC) suggests responsive buying absorbed supply and turned initiative.
• OBV qualitative: Sideways to up since Sep 25 low, consistent with accumulation/redistribution rather than distribution.
• Hourly volume spikes on breakouts today confirm momentum legitimacy.

11. Patterns and signals

• Candles: Today’s 1h sequence formed a bullish impulse bar cluster, effectively a mini-breakout above the 221–223 pivot band. Consolidation at 228 after impulse hints at a bull flag/ascending pause.
• Chart pattern: From Sep 25 low, a classic impulse (Wave 1) into Oct 2 high, corrective dip (Wave 2) into Oct 7–8, and the start of a Wave 3 resumption is plausible, targeting retests/overthrows of 234–236. If momentum is robust, a 1.272–1.414 extension of the latest intraday swing projects into the 233.5–235.5 zone, aligning with resistance.
• Wyckoff lens: Late Sep was capitulation/spring-like. The subsequent higher low at ~220 and reclaim of the pivot indicates absorption and markup readiness.
• Heikin-Ashi (conceptual): Transitioned from wide red to smaller-bodied and then green bodies; trend resumption signaled as upper wicks extend and lower shadows contract.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely flipped below price on today’s rally, offering trailing support in the low-220s.
• DeMark/Exhaustion (qualitative): No clean TD9 top on hourly post-rally; risk of minor pause near 230–231 but not a full exhaustion signature yet.

12. Risk, invalidation, and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Dip toward 226.9–226.4 (38–50% intraday fib) holds; push through 230.2 (R1), then grind to 233–236. Profit-taking emerges near 235–236.
• Bull extension (25–30%): Clean acceptance above 233–236 opens a quick run to 238–240 (R2), particularly if broader crypto beta is risk-on. A measured move of today’s impulse adds 4–6 points above 229 → 233–235, with overshoot potential.
• Bear risk (10–15%): Failure to hold 225.3 pivot leads to a sweep of 223 and possibly 221–222 (Kijun/20SMA). Only a decisive break/close below 220.0 would negate the bullish setup and suggest a move toward 216 or 213.6 (50% retrace of Sep 25–Oct 2 swing).

13. Trade plan construction (tactical long)

• Rationale: Multi-indicator confluence (price > 20/50 SMA, RSI ~58 rising, bullish Ichimoku alignment, strong hourly impulse) with a clear dip-buy pocket at 226.9–226.4 and upside magnets 230.2 → 233–236.
• Entry: Buy limit near 226.9–227.0 to capture the 38.2% retrace of today’s impulse and align with nearby micro-support. Front-run at 226.95 improves fill probability.
• Take-profit (24h horizon): 235.8 (below the 236.8 supply and near Oct 2–3 resistance), allowing fills before the heaviest overhead offers.
• Optional stop (not required but prudent): 221.9–222.4 (below Kijun/20SMA/pivot band). Risk ≈ 4.6–5.0 points vs. reward ≈ 8.8–9.0 points → R:R ≈ 1.8–2.0.
• Management: If price accepts over 230.2 without pulling back, consider chasing with a smaller size and a tighter stop under 228.5, still aiming for 235–236.

14. Why not short here?

• Shorting into a rising 20/50SMA stack, positive RSI slope, and a fresh hourly impulse is a lower-probability mean-reversion bet unless 230–231 rejects decisively and 225.3 fails. The path of least resistance intra-24h remains up.

Conclusion: Bias is long on a controlled dip toward ~226.9, targeting a 233–236 retest within 24 hours, with stretch potential toward ~240 if momentum broadens.