Short the Throwback: Fading SOL’s 221–223 Retest Toward the 214–215 Confluence

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis on SOL (current: $218.653)

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish continuation with a relief bounce, then another leg down toward 214–215 before stabilizing.
• Optimal trade idea: Fade a bounce into broken support (221–223) targeting the 50% retracement cluster around 214–215.
• Invalidation: Sustained reclaim of 225.6–226.0 (daily pivot/9EMA underside) on a 4h close would negate the short setup and tilt odds back to 229–234.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure since Sep peak (253.21 on 9/18): Lower highs and a broad consolidation-to-distribution phase. Pullback to 192.38 (9/25), rally to 234.86 (10/2), then a sequence of lower highs: 233.00 (10/3), 232.52 (10/6), 229.10 (10/8). Today’s move back under the 220–221 shelf breaks a key near-term support.
• Intraday (hourly) trend 10/9: Clear sequence of lower highs/lows: 228.7 → 227.4 → 223.5 → 221.0 → 219.2 → 217.6. Minor bounce attempts are getting sold, indicating supply overhead.
• Key zones:
  • Resistance: 221.7 (S1 pivot retest), 224.8 (23.6% fib from 9/25→10/2), 225.6 (daily pivot), 229–230 (prior supply and 61.8% of 9/18→9/25 swing), 233–235 (recent distribution top).
  • Support: 218.6 (38.2% fib from 9/25→10/2, current price), 216.9 (9/8 pivot), 214.2 (S2 pivot), 213.6 (50% fib), 210.3 (S3), 208.6 (61.8% fib), 205–206 (high-volume node).

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ~221.1: Price now below; signals short-term weakness inside a still-higher-timeframe uptrend.
• 9D EMA ~226: Price well below; short-term pressure is down.
• 50D SMA (est.) ~202–205: Price above; medium-term trend remains constructive unless 205 fails.
• Conclusion: Short-term downtrend within a medium-term uptrend. Expect mean reversion bounces to face supply until 225.6 is reclaimed.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) est. mid-40s: Neutral-to-bearish, room to fall to 40 without being oversold.
• 1h RSI: Low-30s with nascent bullish divergence between the 08:00 low (~219.9) and the 18:00 low (~217.6). Expect a reflex bounce toward 221–223 before next decision.
• Stochastics (daily): Drifting down toward 30–35; not oversold yet.
• Williams %R (daily): Around -60 to -70; mild bearish pressure.
• Conclusion: Intraday bounce likely; daily momentum still favors another test lower afterward.

4. MACD

• Daily: Histogram flattening after the early-Oct pop; fast line rolling over toward a bearish cross. Suggests momentum is shifting back to sellers.
• Hourly: Negative, but narrowing. Consistent with a near-term bounce before another leg down.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ~12: Expect ±12 around the day’s mean. From ~219, a 1xATR move targets 207–231 extremes; more typical next-24h band 214–226 unless a trend day develops.
• Keltner (20EMA±1.5*ATR): Mid ~221; band ~203–239. Price sits lower-mid channel, leaving downside room to the 214–208 zone.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band near 221; price dipped below. Lower band likely in low-200s. With no band tag yet, further downside to test mid-to-lower band is feasible.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Price above the cloud but under Tenkan; near Kijun. Tenkan (9) ~225, Kijun (26) ~214–216. Typical behavior: pullbacks often mean-revert to Kijun. Current price sits between Tenkan and Kijun, favoring a slide toward 214–216 unless Tenkan is reclaimed quickly.
• Chikou: Mixed; not providing a strong bullish read. Bias: Neutral-to-bearish in the short term.

8. Fibonacci confluence

• 9/25→10/2 upswing (192.38 → 234.86):
  • 23.6%: 224.84 (overhead);
  • 38.2%: 218.63 (current support);
  • 50%: 213.62 (next strong support);
  • 61.8%: 208.58.
• 9/18 high → 9/25 low (253.21 → 192.38) retracements:
  • 38.2%: 215.63;
  • 50%: 222.80;
  • 61.8%: 230.00.
• Confluence highlights: 218.6–215.6 support band; 222.8–225.6 resistance band; 230 is a hard cap unless momentum flips.

9. Pivots (daily, classic, from 10/8 H/L/C = 229.56/218.18/229.10)

• P: 225.62; R1: 233.05; R2: 236.99; S1: 221.67; S2: 214.24; S3: 210.29.
• Current price below S1, drifting toward S2. Expect S1 retest from below (221.7) to act as resistance.

10. Volume, OBV, and profile

• Recent downs (9/25, 10/7) had heavier volume than recent upswings (10/8), consistent with distribution.
• High-volume nodes: 205–210 and 228–234. Price often gravitates to HVNs after breaking LVNs. The 216–221 band is thinner and could be traversed quickly if 218.6 breaks decisively.

11. Pattern work

• ABC corrective structure from 10/2 high: A: 234.86→220.48 (≈14.38); B: bounce to 229.10; C-target by equality: 229.10 − 14.38 ≈ 214.72. This aligns with S2 (214.24) and 50% fib (213.62). Strong confluence for a downside objective.
• Channel: Intraday descending channel intact; upper boundary intersects 221–222 over the next hours.
• Candles: Today forming a red body; not hammer-like unless a late-session recovery appears. Yesterday’s green was not strong enough to reverse the 10/7 damage.

12. Ancillary indicators

• ADX (daily) est. ~18–22: Low-to-moderate trend strength; range-with-drift environment favors fading extremes.
• CCI (daily) mildly negative; further downside room before oversold.
• VWAP (session): Price under VWAP suggests sellers control intraday.

13. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Early bounce to 221–223 (S1/pivot underside), failure there, roll down to 214–215 (AB=CD and Kijun/50% fib confluence). Close in the 215–217 area.
• Bull case (25%): Reclaim 223 and 225.6 on a 4h close; squeeze to 229–233 (R1 band). Requires improving breadth and rising 1h MACD.
• Bear extension (20%): Clean break of 214 leads to a quick test of 210–209 (S3 and 61.8% fib) before responsive buying appears.

Trade plan and risk

• Edge: Shorting a throwback to 221–222 offers favorable R:R into the 214–215 confluence with multiple technical supports clustered below as exit targets.
• Invalidation: Above 225.6–226.0 (pivot/9EMA underside). A strong reclaim there changes the tape.
• Optional stop (not required but prudent): 225.9.
• Take profit: 214.6 primary; consider partials at 216.2–215.9 on first tag.

Conclusion

• The confluence of (i) break below S1 with price under 20SMA/9EMA, (ii) hourly downtrend with only a modest bullish divergence, (iii) ABCD downside equality into 214–215, and (iv) Ichimoku Kijun/50% fib cluster supports a Sell-the-bounce approach for the next 24 hours. Expect a reflex pop into 221–223, then continuation toward 214–215.

Price path expectation (next 24h)

• Initial: Drift/bounce to 221–222.5.
• Mid-horizon: Rejection below 223 leads to acceleration into 216–215.
• Late session: Stabilization in 215–217; potential wick to 213.8 if momentum spikes.