SOL: S1 Liquidity Sweep Then Pivot Reversion – Tactical Long From 192s Targeting 201–202

Solana (SOL) – full-spectrum technical review and 24-hour trading plan

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Buy-the-dip for a mean-reversion bounce, provided the 191.7–193.5 demand band holds.
• Key trigger: Liquidity sweep into daily S1/pivot support near 192.3, then reversal.
• Primary target zone: 200.5–202.0 (session pivot/volume node/VWAP confluence).
• Invalidation: Sustained 4h close below ~191.7 opens 188.5 then 182 downside.

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher timeframe context (July → mid-September): A strong uptrend carried SOL to ~253 (9/18) followed by a corrective phase. The 9/22–10/9 zone consolidated 200–235 before a sharp shock 10/10.
• Recent sequence (10/10 → now):
  • 10/10 capitulation (low ~174 intraday; close ~188.7), then a reflex rally to 211.1 (10/14).
  • Post-rally pullback to today’s 194.49. The path is a textbook “impulse down → reactive bounce → orderly pullback”.
• Intraday market structure (today): Lower highs from ~208.2 (08:00 UTC) to ~204.6 → ~200 → ~198 → ~194.8. Today’s low print ~193.18 aligns with a known prior demand shelf.
• Key HTF support/resistance map:
  • Supports: 193.2 (today’s intraday low), 192.3 (daily pivot S1), 191.7–192.4 (multi-touch July–Sep S/R flip), 188.6 (10/10 close), 182.3 (S2).
  • Resistances: 199.5–202.0 (session pivot/vnode), 205–208 (intraday supply; 8–10am highs), 211–213 (R1/50% retrace of Sept drop; failed twice 10/13–10/14).
• Patterning: The pullback from 211 → 194 is channel-like and could be a falling wedge on the 1–4h, favoring a bounce if 191–193 holds. On the daily, the last three candles form an “evening star”-like sequence (10/12 strong up, 10/13 continuation, 10/14 hesitation, 10/15 red), warning not to chase longs into resistance—but attractive for buy-the-dip setups at support.

2. Moving averages (approximate, directional)

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 213–215: Price below → short-term bearish momentum.
• Daily 50-SMA ≈ 205–208: Price below → medium-term caution.
• Longer MAs (100/200) likely below spot given the year’s structure → secular uptrend intact. Net read: short-term pullback within a broader uptrend; mean-reversion probability increases at lower band supports.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) estimated mid-40s: Neutral-bearish but far from oversold—room for both a small dip and bounce.
• 4h RSI drifting ~35–40: Approaching oversold into support—constructive for a reflex bounce.
• 1h RSI oscillated ~30–35 on the late-day selloff; minor positive divergence starting to appear as price made a marginal LL to 193.2 with RSI not making a new low—early evidence of seller exhaustion.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish crossover since early October; histogram negative but flattening after the post-10/10 bounce, implying decelerating downside.
• 4h MACD: Below signal but compression suggests momentum waning; a turn up on a 191–193 hold would confirm a tactical long trigger.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 14-day ATR roughly ~18–22: Implies ±9–11% daily swings are feasible; a 24h range of ~188–206 fits the regime.
• Daily Bollinger Bands: Mid-band near the 20-SMA (~213). Lower band likely ~189–191. Current ~194 sits just above the lower band—classic mean-reversion candidate if buyers defend first touch/sweep.

6. Ichimoku (directional, approximate)

• Price below Tenkan (~205–207) and Kijun (~210–213), and likely below the cloud’s leading span. That keeps overhead resistance dense between 205–213 and argues for profit-taking into that zone on bounces. However, the Kijun acts as a magnet over multiple sessions; for next 24h, targeting the pivot/mid zone (200–202) is more conservative.

7. Fibonacci structure

• Fib A: 10/11 low 173.5 → 10/14 high 211.1
  • 38.2%: ~196.7; 50%: ~192.3; 61.8%: ~187.9. Price is oscillating between 38.2–50%. A controlled test of the 50% (192.3) is an ideal reactive long.
• Fib B: 9/18 high 253.2 → 10/11 low 173.5
  • 38.2%: ~204.6; 50%: ~213.4. The rally failed below 50% and near the 38.2–R1 zone; hence expect supply 205–213. Targeting below 205 on the first bounce is prudent.

8. Classical pivots (based on 10/14 H/L/C: 211.105/191.671/202.460)

• Pivot P = 201.745
• S1 = 192.385
• R1 = 211.819
• S2 = 182.311 Confluence: Today’s low 193.18 ≈ S1. A liquidity sweep into 191.7–192.5 then mean reversion to the pivot (201.7–202.0) is the highest-probability path over 24h.

9. Volume/Order flow

• The 10/10 shock printed capitulation-grade volume; subsequent days show constructive absorption on advances and lighter volume on pullbacks—healthy corrective behavior.
• Visible high-volume node/acceptance 200–205 from late September/early October consolidations; this will act as gravitational resistance on first test.
• Today’s intraday: Volume spiked on the 20:00 UTC push to 193–196, indicating potential downside exhaustion after a trend day lower.

10. VWAP and session structure

• Session VWAP (approx) has been sliding from ~200→~197→~196 during today’s selloff. With price ~194.5 below VWAP, first reaction is often a reversion attempt toward ~198–200 once sellers tire.

11. Regression channel and Donchian context

• 1–4h linear regression from 10/14 high slopes down; current price sits near the lower channel boundary.
• Donchian mid-lines (20-period) sit closer to ~202; a tag of the mid after a lower-bound touch is typical in range-bound pullbacks.

12. Candlestick signals

• Daily: 10/12–10/14 printed a three-candle hesitation near 211 followed by today’s red—don’t chase; fade extremes. Intraday: several lower shadow probes around 193–195 suggest willing dip buyers.

13. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Sweep to 191.7–192.5 (S1/50% Fib) → reversal → push to 199.5–202.0 (pivot zone). Close near 200–201.
• Bull case (25%): Strong rebound from 193–195 without deeper sweep → reclaim 200 early → grind toward 204–206; stalls below 208.
• Bear case (20%): 4h close below 191.7 triggers stops → fast test of 188.6 (10/10 close) → if panic resumes, extension to 182.3 (S2). Any such flush likely finds buyers, but timing the catch requires discipline.

14. Risk management and trade design

• Thesis: Mean-reversion long from confluence support with take-profit into the session pivot/first resistance band.
• Entry: Staggered limit buys 192.4 (S1), 191.9 (prior shelf), optional 190.2 (front-run 61.8%).
• Stop (discretionary): 188.5 (beneath 61.8% retrace and 10/10 close). Risk per unit: ~3.9–4.0 if filled at 192.4.
• Target: 201.7–202.0 (pivot P), with a partial take at 199.8 if momentum hesitates.
• R:R: From 192.4 to 201.7 ≈ +9.3 reward vs ~3.9 risk → ~2.4:1 baseline. Improved if scale-in captures 191.9.
• Optional management: If price spikes to 200.5 quickly, trail to breakeven and let a runner attempt 204–206 only if intraday momentum flips (RSI 1h >50 and price above session VWAP).

15. Cross-checks and invalidation

• A clean 4h close below 191.7 undermines the bounce thesis and increases odds of 188.6/182.3. In that case, step aside and reassess for a fresh long lower or a tactical short-back-to-191 rerun.

Conclusion Given the confluence of the daily S1 (192.38), the 50% retracement of the 10/11→10/14 advance (≈192.3), proximity to the lower Bollinger band, softening intraday momentum, and a sizeable volume node overhead at 200–205, the highest-odds 24h setup is a buy-the-dip with profit-taking into 200–202. The plan is to let price probe the 191.7–192.5 liquidity pocket, then ride the mean reversion to the daily pivot zone.

Positioning summary

• Decision: Buy (Long)
• Open (limit): 192.40
• Take profit: 201.70
• Invalidation (not an order here, but recommended SL): 188.50
• Time horizon: 12–24 hours, contingent on bounce follow-through.