SOL poised for a 24‑hour relief bounce: Buying the 182 pullback for a squeeze toward 191–192

Comprehensive multi‑timeframe technical analysis for SOL/USD over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and context

• Higher timeframe (D1): After a strong Q3 rally to 253 (Sep 18), price rolled over into a corrective phase. A sharp liquidation event on Oct 10 drove SOL from ~224 down to an intraday low ~174, closing 188.7. Subsequent rebound stalled at 208.4 on Oct 13, followed by 4 consecutive lower daily closes into Oct 16–17 near 184–184. This defines a short‑term daily downtrend within a medium‑term corrective regime.
• Recent swing points: High 208.37 (Oct 13), low 174.95 (Oct 17 intraday). Current price 183.90 is in the lower quartile of the recent 33.4‑point range.
• Intraday (H1, Oct 17): Clear capitulation into 10:00 UTC low 174.95, then a sequence of higher lows (176.8 → 181–182 → 182.0) and higher highs (181.98 → 183.99), indicating an intraday trend reversal from down to up. Price reclaimed the H1 21‑EMA area in the US session and is consolidating ~183.9 into the daily close.

2. Key horizontal levels (derived from daily and hourly pivots)

• Support: 182.0–182.5 (H1 VWAP/EMA cluster and reclaimed intraday base), 180.2 (H1 pivot), 176.8 (higher low), 174.95 (session low; key invalidation), then 172.4 (Jul 31 close) and 169.4 (Aug 4 close) if downside resumes.
• Resistance: 186.1–187.2 (intraday supply and 61.8% retracement cluster on micro leg), 188.7 (Oct 10 close pivot), 191.6–192.0 (50% retracement of 208.37→174.95 and daily pivot), 194.0 (Oct 15 close), 197.5 (Oct 12 close), 202.5 (Oct 14 close), 208.4 (Oct 13 high).

3. Fibonacci mapping

• From 208.37 (Oct 13 high) to 174.95 (Oct 17 low): • 38.2% = ~195.61 • 50% = ~191.66 • 61.8% = ~187.72
• Price is currently just below the 61.8% zone; an intraday push above 186–188 opens a magnet move to the 50% level near 191.7. The 188.7–191.7 band is the primary 24h target cluster.

4. Moving averages (approximations from observed path)

• D1: Price sits below the 20‑SMA and below 50‑SMA after the Oct 10 breakdown; slope of both is down to flat. This frames the broader bias as corrective/bearish until reclaimed (>200–205 area).
• H4/H1: Short MAs (9/21 EMA) crossed up intraday on Oct 17 after the 10:00 low; price now holds above the H1 21‑EMA (~182). This supports a 24h bounce while the higher‑timeframe trend remains down.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid‑30s to low‑40s after the selloff—near, but not deeply, oversold. Momentum is negative but flattening; conditions favor mean reversion when intraday structure turns up.
• H1 RSI: Bullish divergence formed between the 08:00–10:00 sequence (price set a marginal lower low to 174.95 while RSI held or improved). Post‑divergence RSI reset toward 50–60 with higher lows—constructive for a continuation squeeze toward 187–192.
• Stoch RSI (H1): Cycled up from oversold during the US session; currently in mid/high range—room to extend but expect intrabar pullbacks to 182–183 support.

6. MACD

• D1 MACD below signal and zero (bearish), but histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is waning after the Oct 10 capitulation.
• H1 MACD crossed above signal around the midday reversal; histogram positive and expanding modestly—supports a continuation into overhead resistance 186–188 first, then 191–192 if momentum persists.

7. Bollinger Bands

• D1 bands expanded on the Oct 10 shock. Price is hugging the lower band area (approx high‑170s/low‑180s). Reversions from lower band commonly test the 20‑SMA/mid‑band; given distance (~200+), a 24h target near the inner band or prior pivots (188–192) is more realistic than a full mean reversion.
• H1 bands: After the morning squeeze, bands are widening with price riding the upper band mid‑afternoon, then consolidating—typical of a developing up‑leg after a volatility expansion.

8. Ichimoku

• D1: Price below Kijun and below cloud—higher‑timeframe bearish regime. Tenkan likely below Kijun; no bullish TK cross yet. Any rally is a corrective bounce until >200–205.
• H1: Price reclaimed Tenkan and Kijun; entering/approaching the cloud. A future bullish cloud twist is possible if consolidation occurs above ~182–183, setting up a push to 187–191 within 24h.

9. Volume and flow

• Oct 10 displayed capitulation volume (largest in dataset window), characteristic of a local selling climax. Subsequent days show heavy but diminishing volume—a typical pattern for post‑shakeout basing.
• Oct 17 intraday: High volume on the morning dump to 175–175 and on the reversal back above 181–182. The turn occurred on rising demand footprints. This usually precedes a 1–2 day squeeze into overhead supply zones.

10. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• H1 session VWAP was reclaimed during the US session; VWAP confluence sits around 182–183. As long as price holds above session VWAP on dips, buyers likely defend.
• Anchored VWAP from the Oct 10 breakdown day likely resides ~195–197; expect strong supply before that. The first logical magnet below AVWAP is 191–192 (50% retrace and daily pivot).

11. ATR/volatility and expected move

• Recent 14‑D ATR inflated after the crash; a conservative 24h expected move is ±8–12 (could be larger). From 183.9, a +8 to +12 push targets 192–196, while a −8 to −12 drop targets 172–176. Given intraday reversal and fading downside momentum, positive skew toward the upper slice of the range (187–192) is favored.

12. Chart patterns

• H1 falling channel/wedge from Oct 13–17 resolved upward midday Oct 17. Post‑breakout, pullback held at 182–183, consistent with a successful retest. A measured move from wedge height (approx 10–12 points) projects 189–195 potential; first checkpoint is 187–188.
• Double‑bottom attempt: 175.8 (08:00) and 174.95 (10:00) with bullish divergence supports a short‑term base. Confirmation requires reclaim and hold above 186–187, then 188.7.

13. Elliott Wave (tactical)

• From 208.4, a 5‑wave decline into 174.95 appears plausible (impulsive leg into capitulation). The current advance behaves like an A‑wave or wave‑1 of a corrective sequence. A 24h projection for B/2 pullback to 182–183 followed by C/3 to 191–192 fits confluences.

14. Wyckoff lens

• Oct 10: Selling Climax (SC) → Automatic Rally (AR: Oct 12–13) → Secondary Test (ST: Oct 15–17 drifting lower). Today’s intraday reversal shows characteristics of a spring on the H1 time frame (minor spring at 174.95) with a potential Sign of Strength (SOS) if 186–187 is reclaimed. Next 24h could print a Back‑Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC) around 182–184 before an SOS run toward 191–192.

15. Probability‑weighted scenarios for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Mild dip to 182–182.5 (VWAP/EMA support), then grind to 186–187; on break and hold above 187.2, momentum extends to 188.7 pivot; continuation into 191–192 to tag the 50% retrace before stalling. Close near 189–192.
• Bearish alternative (30%): Early failure at 185–186 leads to a retest of 180–181; loss of 179 opens 176.8 and possibly a liquidity sweep near 175. A decisive break of 174.9 invalidates bounce and exposes 172.4 and 169–170.
• Low‑probability squeeze (15%): If 188.7 clears quickly with strong breadth, overshoot to 194–195 is possible, but sellers likely defend ahead of anchored VWAP (~195–197).

16. Risk management notes (tactical)

• Invalidation: A sustained break below 176.8 undermines the intraday higher‑low structure; below 174.9 the setup fails.
• Pullback buy zone: 182.0–182.5 offers the best risk‑adjusted entry given VWAP/EMA confluence and prior micro‑base.
• First profit‑taking: 187.7–188.7 (61.8% fib and daily pivot). Stretch target: 191.6–192.0 (50% fib + resistance cluster).

Conclusion and 24h directional call

• Despite the broader daily downtrend, the combination of intraday trend reversal, bullish momentum divergences, reclaimed session VWAP/EMAs, and strong confluence resistance targets above suggests a corrective bounce is the higher‑probability path over the next 24 hours. Expect a buy‑the‑dip opportunity into 182–183 with a push toward 191–192.

Actionable plan (24h)

• Decision: Buy (Long) on a shallow pullback.
• Entry (limit): 182.10–182.40 (optimal 182.10 chosen).
• Target (TP): 191.70 (primary). If momentum is exceptional, consider trailing into 194, but 191.7 aligns best with fib and prior supply for a 24h window.
• Optional risk guide (not required by prompt): Protective stop 176.40 (below 176.8 higher‑low). Risk/Reward ≈ (191.7−182.1)/(182.1−176.4) ≈ 9.6/5.7 ≈ 1.7x.

Path expectation

• Likely path: Brief fade to 182.1–182.5 → push to 185.5–186 → test/squeeze through 187.7 → tag 188.7 pivot → extension into 191.5–191.7, then stall/consolidate.