Sell the Rip: SOL’s 196–197 Supply Capped the Pump—Looking for a Drift Back to 188–189

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for SOL (USD) as of 2025-10-21 20:57 UTC

1. Market structure and trend context (daily)

• Primary swing: Sep 18 high 253.21 → Oct 11 low 173.75 (-31.4%), followed by a corrective bounce that failed near 208–209 on Oct 13. Subsequent lower highs (Oct 14 ~202.46, Oct 15 ~194.02) and a sequence of lower lows into Oct 17 (182.03) define a continuing daily downtrend.
• Current position vs moving averages: 20D SMA ≈ 207.5 (calc from last 20 closes) > price (191.9). Price is below the 20D and likely below the 50D (~213–215 est.). This keeps the medium-term bias bearish. The 20D is rolling down—mean reversion rallies into ~205–208 likely face supply.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, est.): Mid-band ≈ 207.5, daily lower band estimated high-160s/low-170s after recent volatility. Current price rests below the mid-band, in the lower half of the envelope—bearish to neutral; rallies toward the mid-band typically fade in a downtrend.
• Momentum: Daily RSI(14) est. 42–47 (post-crash rebound tempered by several down days). Below 50 signals bearish regime; histogram in MACD likely negative but improving since Oct 17 (decelerating downside), not yet a confirmed bullish cross. Stochastic daily hovering mid-range—no strong reversal signal.
• Volume: Heavy sell pressure on Oct 10 and Oct 14, stronger than on up days—distribution characteristics remain. Recent bounce days (Oct 18–20) saw modest volume—less conviction from buyers.

2. Support, resistance, and Fibs (swing high 253.21 → swing low 173.75)

• Fibonacci retracements off 253.21→173.75: • 38.2% ≈ 204.1 (price failed near 208–209 on Oct 13, consistent with fib resistance cluster 204–209) • 50% ≈ 213.5 (major supply, coinciding with prior congestion) • 61.8% ≈ 222.9 (deeper corrective target if trend flips)
• Key horizontal levels (spot and recent): • 173–175: structural swing low (Oct 10–11)—major demand • 182–184: multi-touch near-term support (Oct 16–17 lows; 21 Oct Asia low ~183.6) • 187–190: local support/resistance pivot band (several closes cluster 187–190) • 195–197: intraday supply zone (today’s high 197.35; repeated rejection 194–197 area) • 200: psychological + round-number resistance • 204–209: fib 38.2% cluster + prior failure—strong resistance

3. Intraday (1H) structure, VWAP, pivots and ranges

• Intraday rhythm (Oct 21): Asia drifted down 187→184; Europe/early US propelled a sharp pump 185→197 (14:00–16:00 UTC) on elevated volume; then lower highs and fade to ~192—classic mean-reversion after a one-leg pump in a broader downtrend.
• 1H trend: Lower highs forming after 16:00 UTC; price has slipped from above to near/below the session VWAP (est. ~193.5–194). Trading below/near VWAP in a down-biased daily regime favors selling rips rather than buying dips.
• Classic daily pivots from Oct 20 (H 194.34, L 184.05, C 189.75): • P ≈ 189.38; R1 ≈ 194.71; R2 ≈ 199.67; S1 ≈ 184.42; S2 ≈ 179.09 Today’s high 197.35 probed between R1 and R2 and failed. Price now hovers just above P; losing P reopens S1 (~184.4). This lines up with the 182–184 multi-touch support.

4. Indicators cross-check (multi-tool confluence)

• Moving averages: • Price < 20D and < est. 50D → downtrend intact. • On 1H, the 20/50 EMAs likely rolled over after the 16:00–18:00 UTC pullback; rallies into the 1H 50/100 EMA band (~194–196) should attract sellers.
• RSI / Stoch: • 1H RSI cooled from overbought during the 14:00–15:00 UTC spike to neutral (~45–50), tilting down—supports short-term pullback continuation. • Stoch 1H rolled over from >80; momentum ebbing.
• MACD: • 1H MACD flipped positive on the pump, but histogram has faded and is close to a bear cross; daily MACD still sub-zero → bearish regime not yet reversed.
• Bollinger (1H): Price mean-reverted from upper band near 197 back toward the mid-band. With bands moderately widened, a drift toward the lower band (189→186) is plausible if VWAP remains overhead.
• ADX / DMI (qualitative): Daily ADX elevated from recent trend, -DI likely dominant; 1H ADX moderate—supports trend-follow short setups on rallies rather than counter-trend longs into resistance.
• Ichimoku (1H, qualitative): The pump likely pushed above the cloud; subsequent fade threatens a Tenkan/Kijun bear cross and a return into/under the cloud—bearish if confirmed. Daily still below Kijun—macro resistance overhead.
• Anchored VWAPs: • From Oct 10 selloff pivot: aVWAP likely sits ~197–200; today’s rejection near 197 aligns with overhead supply under that aVWAP. Price below aVWAP = sellers in control on a larger swing basis.
• Volume profile (last 2 weeks): HVN/POC around 194–195; secondary HVN 188–189. Today’s rejection at the upper value area (195–197) with pullback toward the POC/secondary HVN suggests rotation back down the profile, favoring a move toward 188–189 first.

5. Pattern diagnostics and risks

• Possible intraday ascending structure from 183 to 197 broke character post 16:00 UTC (lower highs). Without a decisive reclaim of 196–197, odds favor further mean-reversion lower into 189→186.
• A potential inverse H&S could be building (LS ~182–184, Head ~173–175, RS ~183–186); neckline ~197. A clean 1H/4H close >197.5–198 would invalidate the immediate short and open a path to 200.6 then 204–209 (fib 38.2 cluster). Until that break, the pattern is unconfirmed and resistance acts first.

6. Volatility and risk parameters

• Daily ATR(14) est. ~15–18. Today’s high-to-current is ~5.4; a typical next 24h excursion can easily test one more 1/2–1 ATR lower (≈187–184) if resistance holds.
• Liquidity pools: Below 190 sits a cluster of equal lows/stop pockets around 189.5/188.8 and deeper near 186. A sweep into 186–184 is plausible within 1 ATR if sellers press.

7. 24-hour outlook and scenarios (probabilities are qualitative)

• Base case (55%): Rallies into 195–197 fail; price rotates down toward 189–188, potential wicks to 186–185 before stabilizing back near 189–191 by tomorrow. Range expectation: 186–197.
• Bull case (25%): Break-and-hold above 197.5 flips intraday momentum; quick test 199–201, stretch target 204–205 if stops cascade. Would require sustained bid and 1H close above 197.5.
• Bear extension (20%): Lose 189 decisively → accelerate into 186–184 (S1/structural support). A high-vol wick toward 182–183 possible if risk markets wobble, but expect responsive buyers near 182–184 initially.

8. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Sell rallies within a broader daily downtrend; intraday momentum has already turned from earlier pump.
• Optimal entry zone: 195.5–197.5 (supply band at 1H EMAs/VWAP overhead, pivot R1–R2 corridor, today’s rejection zone).
• Targeting: First target 188–189 (secondary HVN and pre-pump pivot); deeper target 186–184 if momentum extends.
• Invalidation (analysis context): Sustained break/close above 197.5–198 negates the short-term short setup and implies a squeeze toward 200–205. (Note: stop not requested in output, but this is the analytical invalidation.)

Decision and price levels

• Direction: Sell (Short Position)
• Open (limit sell): 195.9 (inside 195.5–197.5 supply band and below today’s 197.35 high for a higher-probability fill)
• Close (take profit): 188.4 (within the 188–189 demand/HVN pocket for conservative profit capture; leaves room for re-entry if 186–184 opens up)

Summary SOL remains below key daily MAs and below the 38.2% retracement band, with intraday momentum fading after a single-leg pump into well-defined resistance. Confluence from pivots (R1–R2), anchored VWAP, 1H EMA band, and volume profile favors selling rips near 196–197 and covering into 188–189 over the next 24 hours, barring a decisive reclaim of 197.5–198.