Sell the rip: targeting the 172 liquidity pocket on Solana within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish continuation with a high likelihood of a stop run below 179.5 and a test of 174 to 172. A reflex bounce toward 182 to 185 is possible but likely to be sold.
• Preferred tactic: Sell the rip into hourly supply around 182.4 to 183.2. Alternate entry on breakdown below 179.4 if no bounce materializes.
• Expected 24h range: 171.8 to 185.8. Most probable settlement 176 to 178.

Multi timeframe structure and trend

1. Daily trend and market structure

• Sequence since the October 10 capitulation: rebound to 208.37 on Oct 13 followed by lower highs 202.46 on Oct 14, 194.02 on Oct 15, 189.75 on Oct 20, 185.67 on Oct 21. This defines a persistent lower high structure and a descending channel.
• Current daily candle 10-22 is a strong red body printing a lower low at 179.53 versus the prior session’s 183.31 intraday low and rejecting attempts to reclaim 182 to 184 intraday. This shows sellers in control into the New York afternoon.
• Key support shelf from the Oct 10 and Oct 11 lows 174.07 and 173.75 remains untested since the bounce; proximity increases odds of a liquidity sweep.

2. Intraday hourly structure 21 Oct 21:00 to 22 Oct 20:57 (provided h data)

• Stair step drift lower from 191 to 179 to 180 with only shallow recoveries to 182.4, 185.8, and repeated failures to hold above 185. This is a classic bear channel with supply capping every bounce.
• Today’s bounce highs aligned around 182.16 to 182.40 and 185.84 earlier in the session, both producing swift rejections. The 182.4 print is the nearest fresh supply pivot.
• Intraday liquidity: visible lows 180.46 then 179.63 then 179.41 area. Multiple touches just above 179.5 suggest stops resting just below; expect a stop run through 179.5 to 178.xx on continuation.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 5 day SMA ≈ 186.19, 10 day SMA ≈ 190.25, 20 day SMA ≈ 202.97. Price 180.09 is below all three and slopes are negative, confirming short term and swing term downtrends.
• Approximate 50 day SMA inferred from August to early October closes sits in the 215 to 220 zone. Price is well below, reinforcing broader weakness.
• Short term MA stack is bearish 5 below 10 below 20. Any bounces into 185 to 190 meet layered dynamic resistance from these MAs.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI 14 estimated in the high 30s range 35 to 40 after the Oct 10 shock and subsequent lower highs. This is bearish but not yet capitulation oversold. Room exists for another leg down before an oversold mean reversion triggers.
• Hourly RSI repeatedly tags low 30s on pushes to 179 to 180 and recovers to mid 40s on bounces, consistent with a bear market RSI regime where 50 to 60 caps rallies.
• MACD daily is negative and under its signal since mid October with a growing negative histogram after a brief stall Oct 18 to 20. This indicates momentum re acceleration to the downside.
• Stochastic on daily likely sub 30 and curling down. Continuation conditions persist; any near term bounce likely fades beneath 186 to 190.

Volatility and ATR

• Post Oct 10 shock, realized daily ranges have settled but remain elevated. A 14 day ATR approximation sits around 11 to 13. With spot at 180 this implies expected day range of roughly 168 to 192 under one ATR. Within the next 24 hours, a 8 to 12 dollar excursion is statistically routine.
• Today’s intraday high to low range 187.24 to 179.53 already prints about 7.7. With US evening and Asia session ahead, a further 3 to 6 extension lower is realistic into supports 176, 174, 172.

Bollinger Bands 20 period

• 20 period basis ≈ 203 with a wide standard deviation estimated near 15 to 17 after the October volatility spike. Lower band approximates 203 minus 2 sigma near 169 to 173. Price is riding the lower half of the envelope consistent with a lower band walk. That supports continuation risk to the 174 to 171 pocket before any strong mean reversion.

Ichimoku perspective

• Daily price is below Tenkan and Kijun; Tenkan likely high 180s to near 190 given the last 9 period midpoints, and Kijun around the low 200s given the 26 period midpoints. Price below cloud, below conversion, and below base reflects a full bearish Ichimoku stack. Any rally into 186 to 192 faces Tenkan Kijun resistance layers.

Fibonacci mapping

• Down swing reference A to B from Oct 13 high 208.37 to current zone 180 implies retracement resistances on any bounce at 38.2 percent 189.4, 50 percent 194.2, 61.8 percent 199.0. These levels align with prior price memory and MA resistance, forming a Fibonacci confluence overhead.
• If breakdown extends, measured extensions from 208.37 to 180 yield 1.272 at 172.3, 1.618 at 162.5. The 1.272 lines up closely with the August 1 close 162.88 only at the 1.618 level; nearer term the 1.272 172.3 aligns with the Oct 10 to 11 shelf around 174 to 173 and is a natural magnet for stop runs and liquidity.

Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance 182.16 to 182.40 hourly supply. Next resistance 185.67 prior close. Layered resistance 187.80 to 189.75 cluster. Major resistance 194.02 and round 200.
• Immediate supports 179.53 today’s low, 178.05 Oct 11 close, 174.07 Oct 10 low, 171.85 from July 31 swing. If 179.5 breaks, a quick flush to 176 to 174 is probable, with an extension to 172.3 feasible under momentum.

Volume and participation

• Heavy distribution days are clustered on down sessions Oct 10, 14 to 17, 21. Today’s running volume is elevated but not climactic, indicating persistent rather than capitulative selling. This suggests trend continuation rather than an immediate V-shaped reversal.

Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag structure formed Oct 16 to Oct 20 between 182 and 190 resolved lower on Oct 21. Today is the follow through day. Measured move from the flag 190 top to 182 base projects 8 points below the breakdown point near 182, targeting roughly 174, matching key support. A secondary measured move using the Oct 13 to Oct 16 impulse gives a deeper 172 to 171 objective that echoes the 1.272 extension.
• Descending channel drawn from Oct 13 high through Oct 20 lower high and connecting Oct 11 and Oct 22 intraday lows points channel support in the 174 to 172 zone within 24 hours if slope persists.

Probabilistic scenario mapping next 24h

• Base case 60 percent: Fails to reclaim 182.4 to 183.2, breaks 179.5 stops, trades into 176 to 174, with tails possibly to 172 to 172.5. Likely late session bounce prints a settle around 176 to 178.
• Alternate 30 percent: Early Asia squeeze to 183.5 to 185.5 into hourly and MA resistance, then sellers regain control and fade back to 178 to 180 by the 24h mark. Attractive sell on strength setup.
• Low probability 10 percent: Squeeze extends above 186 then 189.4 Fibonacci 38.2. That would threaten the bearish thesis in the very short term and force covering toward 194, but requires a catalyst not present in the tape.

Risk management and execution plan

• Optimal entry for short positioning is into the 182.4 supply pivot where earlier sellers emerged. That entry offers favorable risk reward against a nearby invalidation zone 186.2 to 187.2 if one uses a stop. If no bounce occurs, a momentum add below 179.4 is valid but offers worse entry efficiency and higher slippage risk into supports.
• Profit taking plan favors the first objective at 174.2 to 174.7 where prior lows sit, with a stretch target at the Fibonacci 1.272 extension 172.3 where liquidity should be rich. Given ATR conditions, both are achievable within the 24h horizon.

Confluence summary

• Trend filters MAs and Ichimoku confirm a downtrend. Momentum oscillators are bearish without extreme oversold, allowing continuation. Fibonacci and measured moves cluster targets at 174 and 172. Hourly structure shows repeated failures at 182 to 185 with supply strong. Volume profile shows distribution on down days. ATR supports the distance to targets within 24h. Collectively these support a Sell the bounce plan.

24h price path projection

• Preferred path Asia open to Europe United States: short bounce to 182.0 to 183.0 then roll over, break 179.5, tag 176 to 175, accelerate to 174 to 172 on stop run, then late stabilization toward 176 to 178.

Decision

• Direction Sell Short Position.
• Entry price Sell limit 182.40 to maximize edge. If not filled, consider tactical re entry on breakdown below 179.40, but the primary call is the 182.40 supply tag.
• Take profit at 172.30 matching the 1.272 extension and prior structural shelf proximity. This balances probability and reward within a 24h window.